When the Los Angeles Lakers tipped off the defense of their NBA championship last Tuesday against the LA Clippers, LeBron James joined yet another selective club by beginning his 18th NBA campaign.
James became the 40th player in league history to reach Year 18, joined by Carmelo Anthony as No. 41 the following night. Unlike any of the other 40 players, LeBron still reigns as the NBA's most unstoppable individual force as his career nears two full decades. He won his fourth Finals MVP in October and has a good chance at adding a fifth as the Lakers entered the season as title favorites. Again, James finished atop ESPN's NBArank countdown of the league's best players.
As James attempts to put together the best Year 18 in NBA history, what is his competition? And what does his longevity say about his case as the GOAT?
Let's take a look, starting by breaking down everyone who has previously reached his 18th season:
Providing size (12 players)
James Edwards, 1994-95 Portland Trail Blazers (-1.0 WARP*)
Pau Gasol, 2018-19 San Antonio Spurs/Milwaukee Bucks (0.2 WARP)
Juwan Howard, 2011-12 Miami Heat (-0.9 WARP)
Rick Mahorn, 1998-99 Philadelphia 76ers (-1.0 WARP)
Nazr Mohammed, 2015-16 Oklahoma City Thunder (-0.1 WARP)
Dikembe Mutombo, 2008-09 Houston Rockets (0.1 WARP)
Charles Oakley, 2002-03 Washington Wizards (-0.8 WARP)
Tree Rollins, 1994-95 Orlando Magic (-0.8 WARP)
Danny Schayes, 1998-99 Orlando Magic (-1.2 WARP)
Kurt Thomas, 2012-13 New York Knicks (0.0 WARP)
Herb Williams, 1998-99 New York Knicks (0.0 WARP)
Kevin Willis, 2002-03 San Antonio Spurs (-0.3 WARP)
*Wins above replacement player, my player value metric.
Given that height is the surest "talent" to remain as players near or enter their 40s, it's no surprise that 25 of the 39 players (64%) who have reached Year 18 were listed at 6-foot-9 or taller. That's nearly double the overall percentage of players listed at 6-9 or taller who have debuted since 1977 (35%).
It's further no surprise that all 12 players who averaged less than 14 minutes per game during their Year-18 campaigns were either power forwards or more likely centers. Historically, teams have loved to have a veteran big man around for six extra fouls if necessary.
That includes a former six-time All-Star in Gasol (who's still hoping for a 19th season) and a four-time Defensive Player of the Year in Mutombo (who was still quite effective in limited action), but also a number of less-heralded players who hung on through professionalism.
Consider Miami Heat legend Udonis Haslem, who has won three titles in Miami, in this category when he checks into a game to officially reach Year 18.
Providing leadership (11)
Tyson Chandler, 2018-19 Phoenix Suns/Los Angeles Lakers (-2.0 WARP)
Jamal Crawford, 2017-18 Minnesota Timberwolves (0.4 WARP)
Terry Cummings, 1999-00 Golden State Warriors (0.1 WARP)
Derek Fisher, 2013-14 Oklahoma City Thunder (1.0 WARP)
Grant Hill, 2012-13 LA Clippers (-1.6 WARP)
Jermaine O'Neal, 2013-14 Golden State Warriors (1.0 WARP)
Tony Parker, 2018-19 Charlotte Hornets (0.3 WARP)
Paul Pierce, 2015-16 LA Clippers (-0.7 WARP)
Clifford Robinson, 2006-07 New Jersey Nets (-2.0 WARP)
Jerry Stackhouse, 2012-13 Brooklyn Nets (-0.7 WARP)
Jason Terry, 2016-17 Milwaukee Bucks (0.3 WARP)
Although these players played more than the big men in the first category and contributed to varying degrees on the court, their best attribute was the veteran presence they provided after lengthy and decorated careers. That came as leaders on young teams (like Crawford with the Timberwolves, who ended a 13-season playoff drought) and also contributors to contenders filling out their benches.
It was predictable that many of the players in this group have followed up their long careers on the court by successfully moving into coaching (Fisher and Stackhouse are head coaches for the WNBA's Los Angeles Sparks and at Vanderbilt, respectively), broadcasting (Hill and Pierce) or elsewhere in the game (Parker is the president and majority owner of the ASVEL men's and women's teams in his native France, and O'Neal told the New York Times in July he plans to start a basketball agency with Tracy McGrady, who made it to only 16 NBA seasons).
Hall of Famers battling injuries (2)
Kobe Bryant, 2013-14 Los Angeles Lakers (-0.2 WARP)
Steve Nash, 2013-14 Los Angeles Lakers (0.0 WARP)
The 2013-14 Lakers' backcourt gets a category of its own. Future Hall of Famers Nash and Bryant, who'd teamed up when Nash arrived in L.A. in a sign-and-trade in the summer of 2012, both spent much of their 18th seasons on the sidelines.
Following his Achilles rupture in April 2013, Kobe didn't return to the court until December. Just as he was rounding back into form with 21 points at Memphis, Bryant suffered a fracture of the lateral tibial plateau in his left knee that ended his season after six games. Meanwhile, Nash was limited to 15 appearances by nerve root irritation during his final NBA campaign.
Past their prime but still useful (11)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1986-87 Los Angeles Lakers (6.0 WARP)
Ray Allen, 2013-14 Miami Heat (2.7 WARP)
Vince Carter, 2015-16 Memphis Grizzlies (1.6 WARP)
Kevin Garnett, 2012-13 Boston Celtics (6.0 WARP)
Jason Kidd, 2011-12 Dallas Mavericks (5.3 WARP)
Moses Malone, 1992-93 Philadelphia 76ers (1.9 WARP)
Reggie Miller, 2004-05 Indiana Pacers (4.7 WARP)
Dirk Nowitzki, 2015-16 Dallas Mavericks (6.6 WARP)
Hakeem Olajuwon, 2001-02 Toronto Raptors (2.2 WARP)
Shaquille O'Neal, 2009-10 Cleveland Cavaliers (2.5 WARP)
Robert Parish, 1993-94 Boston Celtics (3.2 WARP)
The 11 players in this group are all either in the Hall of Fame or likely to get there once eligible (Carter being the only slight question in that regard), so it's understandable that they remained capable contributors deep into their careers.
Yes, by this stage we got some unusual jerseys to add to the collection (O'Neal's season alongside LeBron with the Cavaliers was ultimately forgettable, while everybody involved would probably prefer to forget Olajuwon leaving Houston to finish his career with the Raptors). Still, many of these players started for playoff teams and Abdul-Jabbar won his fourth championship while taking a back seat on offense to league MVP Magic Johnson.
LeBron's competition (3)
Tim Duncan, 2014-15 San Antonio Spurs (11.9 WARP)
Karl Malone, 2002-03 Utah Jazz (11.7 WARP)
John Stockton, 2001-02 Utah Jazz (13.7 WARP)
Entering this season, only three players in NBA history have managed at least seven wins above replacement player (WARP). All three reached double digits -- which typically represents All-Star performance -- and two of them happened to do it as teammates.
When it comes to longevity, the Jazz's Hall of Fame duo set the standard. In his 18th season, Stockton actually averaged his most points per game (13.4) in five years to go along with 8.2 APG but was still edged out for a West All-Star spot by Steve Francis. The following season, Malone topped 20 PPG for the 17th and final time in his career, though he too missed the All-Star team in a loaded year for West forwards (including Duncan).
More so than either Utah player, Duncan is the closest comp for where LeBron is in Year 18. He too was coming off a championship (his fifth), albeit no longer as San Antonio's singular star. And he did make an All-Star appearance, the 15th of his illustrious career.
Still, to say Duncan was the closest comp is to reveal how unusual James' current status is. Even adjusting for Gregg Popovich's careful management of his minutes, Duncan's average of 17.3 points per 36 minutes was a far cry from his days as the team's go-to scorer; he finished just 22% of the team's plays with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover. And the defending champion Spurs were knocked out of the playoffs in the first round after a thrilling seven-game series against the Clippers, just as the Jazz lost in the opening round in Year 18 for both Malone and Stockton.
Because LeBron's Year 18 is a work in progress, we don't yet know for certain whether he can surpass his peers, but he's on pace to do so. A modest start by James' standards has him on pace for 14.1 WARP this season. And he's a great bet to crush Abdul-Jabbar's 2.0 WARP as the most in the playoffs for a player in his 18th campaign.
The meaning of LeBron's longevity
There's an obvious counterpoint here: Of course James should be better than other stars during his 18th season because he's also much younger at the same point of his career. That's true, certainly. LeBron celebrates his 36th birthday on Wednesday, making him younger than all but three players in this group (fellow preps-to-pros Bryant, Chandler and Jermaine O'Neal). The typical Year-18 player is age 38 or 39 and Mutombo was, incredibly, 42.
Yet an interesting element of this exercise is showing that players who came into the league directly out of high school haven't necessarily enjoyed more longevity than their peers who went to college. Garnett is the only such player to surpass one win above replacement in Year 18. (Presuming he gets there, LeBron might yet be joined by Dwight Howard and Lou Williams -- currently in their 16th and 17th seasons, respectively.)
My past research has found that mileage does seem to matter above and beyond age in terms of how quickly player production drops off. Given how many minutes he has logged between the regular season and playoffs, I don't think LeBron's continued dominance should be treated as a foregone conclusion.
LeBron's staying power vs. Jordan's peak
That raises the question of how much credit James should get for his longevity. Michael Jordan, whose shadow LeBron continues to chase in the minds of observers, is conspicuous by his absence from the list. While Jordan did play what would have been his 18th season based on his draft class (2001-02, his first year with the Washington Wizards), that stretch was interrupted by his pair of retirements. Jordan played just 15 NBA campaigns in total.
Because basketball legacy isn't based on counting stats in the same way as in baseball or football, Jordan's relatively short career for an all-time great has never been held against him in the debate over the NBA's greatest player of all time. James' continued success threatens that status quo. LeBron has already surpassed Jordan's career totals in every major individual stat save steals, and will rewrite the record books as long as he remains healthy.
I don't think there's a right answer to the question of how to value longevity versus peak greatness, but that question will almost certainly come to define the GOAT debate for decades to come. Jordan's backers will point to his unimpeachable track record in the NBA Finals as LeBron believers highlight the totality of his accomplishments.
That debate will rage on for decades. For now, it's worth savoring James' continued high level of play in his 18th season. It's truly nothing we've seen before.