After leading the Los Angeles Lakers to the NBA title in October, LeBron James is back at it, defending another league championship at the start of another new season.
But this year feels different. At the dawn of his 18th season of pro hoops, the sheer longevity of James' career is emerging as one of his most impressive feats. It also raises very real questions about how he can maintain his all-world level of play.
James' combination of greatness and mileage is unparalleled. And the way he manages that mileage will be a fascinating wrinkle in this season's title race.
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This dude has racked up the miles
James will turn 36 before the end of the calendar year. His career right now is defined by both an incredible 17-season résumé and current championship expectations. And he enters this season as both the reigning Finals MVP and the league's oldest projected starter.
These three stats help show just how much volume James is carrying this season.
1. NBA games played: 1,525
Next week, James will lace them up once again and play in his 1,526th NBA game (including postseason). For context, Larry Bird played in 1,061 total games, Magic Johnson played in 1,096 and Michael Jordan played in 1,251. While those icons all faded away before they reached the 1,300-game mark, James is arguably still the most effective single player in the world as he approaches 1,600 games played.
2. Total minutes: 59,364
James has played more NBA basketball than every other active player by a truly staggering amount. Carmelo Anthony currently ranks second in total regular-season and postseason minutes played at 42,979. For Anthony to catch his buddy, James would need to stop playing and Anthony would need to play the full 48 minutes in more than 340 games.
3. Total points: 41,732
Again, Anthony is second here among active players. And again, it's not close.
For Anthony to catch James in regular-season and postseason scoring, he'd have to average 30 points for more than 448 games. James is just on another planet.
The King has been to the NBA Finals in nine of the past 10 seasons. His résumé is incredible. But as he completes his shortest offseason ever, his resilience is about to face its toughest test yet.
How James finds time to rest
Though the average gap between the last day of the Finals and the first night of the following season is around 141 days, the Lakers are getting only 71 days off after a delayed run to the October title. Given his age, his mileage and this rapid turnaround, can James reasonably defend a title?
That question brings us to our last set of numbers, examining how James' workload and on-court exertion have changed over the years -- something that ESPN's Brian Windhorst covered during James' Cleveland years and has become only more important in Los Angeles.
James has maintained his throne by finding new ways to manage his workload and to conserve his energy. Rather than missing more games, he's load-managing more during games.
The NBA's leaguewide player-tracking system dates to 2013. It provides fascinating insights into how different players exert themselves in different ways. And James is exerting himself more selectively than ever.
In his final season with the Miami Heat, James traveled an average distance of 2.56 miles per game, per Second Spectrum tracking. By his first season in Los Angeles, that number had dipped to 2.37 miles per game, and last season it fell again, to 2.30 miles per game. It's a similar story with his average speed on the floor, which has decreased from 3.82 mph in 2015-16 to 3.7 mph last season, ranking 122nd out of the 127 players to average 30 minutes per game.
This is less about what James can still do and more about what he knows his body should be doing. The film and data show that James conserves his energy so that when he decides to hit the turbo button, his old boosters still have enough juice to fuel his massive frame in crucial moments.
James limits his jogging as much as possible on the court, a main reason his average speed is lower. Among players to log 30 minutes per game, only James Harden (18.6%) spent less time moving at a medium pace than James (19.0%) in 2019-20, per Second Spectrum data.
The bubble made it clear that James is still among the best athletes in the league. But those gray hairs in his beard are real. The workload data reveals that he's playing a little bit less per game and he's picking his spots more carefully than ever.
How this works on the court
James has completely changed his shot selection since entering the league. Back when he won his first title, with Miami in 2012, midrange shots were a huge part of his game and 3-pointers were not.
That season, James took over 40% of his shots in the areas between 10 feet and the 3-point line. Just 12.7% of his attempts were 3-point tries. But as he won his fourth title in the bubble last season, his shot chart had become more James Harden than Michael Jordan.
Last season, midrangers accounted for only 17% of his shot diet, and 3s made up a career-high 32.6% of his shots.
James has evolved along with the league that he has dominated for nearly two decades, but this shift in shot diet also represents another way he's expending less energy. You see more casual firing of 3s and less painful bulldozing to the hoop.
James made a respectable 37% of his triples during the most recent postseason. The simple fact that he can and will make 3s at this level is helping him extend his career. Triples are easier on the body than the ferocious downhill rim attacks that James has used to generate points for most of his never-ending prime. During his last playoff run in Cleveland in 2017-18, James averaged 22.8 drives per 100 possessions. In the bubble playoffs this fall, that figure fell all the way to 16.8.
Make no mistake: James hasn't retired from dominating the paint just yet. He's just curating the taxing trips more carefully. When the Lakers needed buckets down the stretch, the dude could still get them at will by overpowering younger defenders who were no match for his Karl Malone-esque size. Not only did he attempt and convert more paint shots than anyone in the 2020 playoffs, but out of the 38 postseason players who tried at least 50 shots in the paint, James also ranked first overall in efficiency, converting a ridiculous 71.2% of those tries.
Aside from shot selection, the other huge shift in James' offensive game involves his passing. James has always been a phenomenal passer and an unselfish player, but last season he took that to new heights. For the first time in his career, he led the NBA in assists, logging 10.2 per game.
These dimes are a vital component of James' ability to stay fresh. Instead of toiling his own way to physical baskets in the paint, he's putting more trust in his teammates. And it's working.
Overall last season, the Lakers logged an impressive effective field goal percentage of 54.6%. But off of James' passes, the Lakers' eFG soared to 56.1%, the highest such mark among the NBA's 10 most active shot creators, per Second Spectrum data. You find a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. You find a bucket at the end of a James pass.
It helps that the Lakers have Anthony Davis, who's still just 27 and one of the most talented teammates James has ever had. Last season, the James-to-Davis combo was the most prolific assister-shooter pairing in the NBA. But the best way for Davis to help James save his body is by skipping the assist altogether. As a Laker, Davis logged 5.8 isos per 100 possessions while scoring 1.03 points per chance -- both career highs. Even more of that would be great news for his co-star.
The crown is as heavy as ever for James, who has always been among the savviest superstars in the game. The Lakers expect another trophy in a season that will be extremely competitive and unpredictable. The chaotic nature of the upcoming season probably will challenge older players more than the young vets. Bet against James if you want, but his reign shows no real signs of ending anytime soon.