How does LeBron James' NBA Finals résumé compare to Michael Jordan's?
The MJ-LeBron debate centers heavily on their performances on the NBA's biggest stage. For Jordan partisans, the Chicago Bulls' 6-0 record in Finals series -- with MJ winning MVP each time -- is indisputable proof of his superiority. For James believers, his 10 Finals appearances are emblematic of LeBron's longer record of accomplishment.
Let's take a closer look at how both superstars have performed in the NBA Finals.
What do LeBron's and MJ's overall Finals track records tell us about the choice between them as the greatest of all time?
Championships added
In the past, I've compared Jordan and LeBron using my championships added metric, which attempts to quantify how much players did to help their teams win titles -- accounting for leaguewide quality of play and performance in both the regular season and the playoffs.
One of the shortcomings of the original method I developed was that it didn't account for performance in different playoff series. Basketball-Reference.com has calculated win shares, the individual statistic at the heart of the model, over only the course of entire playoff runs (not individual series). So looking strictly at the Finals requires a new metric.
To build on championships added, I decided to look at game-by-game performance using the game score developed by John Hollinger and available on Basketball-Reference.com. Specifically, I wanted to look at players' game score as a share of the total accumulated by both teams in the game, naturally accounting for changes in average game score as offense has fluctuated.
Let's take Game 5 of this year's Western Conference finals as an example. LeBron posted a 37.3 game score, good for 22% of the total across both teams. (This is, naturally, a massive number. James played 8.3% of the minutes by all players, so he was nearly three times as productive per minute as the average player in the game.) My research suggested that teams with a player so productive have typically won the game about 82% of the time.
Based on game-by-game scores, we can estimate the chances a team would win a series based on the productivity of an individual player. Anything above and beyond a 50-50 chance adds to the team's championship odds.
Comparing Jordan and LeBron in the Finals
With that explanation, let's look at how both GOAT contenders have performed in the NBA Finals, starting with Jordan.
As expected, Jordan's Finals track record is all but unimpeachable. In five of his six Finals -- all but 1996, when he shot just 41.5% in a six-game win over the Seattle SuperSonics -- Jordan played well enough that the Bulls were expected to win at least 86% of the time given average production by his Bulls teammates. In his first Finals appearance, 1991, Jordan played so well (averaging 31.2 points and 11.4 rebounds with 56% shooting and nearly as many steals as turnovers) Chicago was given better than a 90% chance of winning.
All told, this method shows Jordan adding more than two championships above expectation in his six Finals trips, meaning even average play from his teammates would have lifted the Bulls to at least five NBA titles in those six series. It's hard to get much better than that.
By contrast, James' Finals track record is a bit more mixed.
At the high end, LeBron's best performances -- in 2015 and 2016 with the Cleveland Cavaliers -- are comparable to Jordan's best Finals. That's despite the Cavaliers losing 4-2 in 2015 with All-Stars Kyrie Irving (who suffered a series-ending injury in Game 1) and Kevin Love (lost earlier in the playoffs) out of the lineup. Without them, James was responsible for 18% of the total game score in the series, which is why I argued he deserved MVP in a losing effort.
What stands out here is LeBron's worst Finals performance added little to his team's championship chances in both 2007 (when his 50-win Cleveland team was swept by the San Antonio Spurs) and 2011 (when LeBron's first Miami Heat team was upset 4-2 by the Dallas Mavericks). In those series, James performed only a little better than average.
As a result, LeBron's 10 Finals performances have given his teams about a 79% chance of winning according to this model -- not nearly as good as Jordan's average of 87%. However, those 10 appearances also have provided LeBron more overall opportunities to rack up championships added in the Finals than Jordan, giving James a higher total: almost three championships added (2.94).
How the 2020 Finals were atypical for LeBron
Some quick math suggests if James added nearly three championships in the Finals, that means his 10 Finals teams should actually have been expected to go 8-2 based on his performance rather than 4-6 -- an outcome that would change the GOAT conversation dramatically.
Understanding why LeBron's teams haven't been as successful in the Finals as his performance would indicate requires looking at the performance of his teammates. Let's consider the percentage of the total game score in each series produced by other players on his team.
This year's Finals series -- during which Anthony Davis gave James competition for Finals MVP and the Los Angeles Lakers' role players stepped up throughout -- was unlike many past series for LeBron. Particularly during his second stint with the Cavaliers, James found himself with too little help against historically great Golden State Warriors teams.
When LeBron's teammates produced at least 33% of the game score in the Finals, his teams have gone 4-2, including 4-0 since 2012. That's a level of support on which Jordan could count in Chicago.
Jordan's teammates averaged 36% of the total game score in the series during his six Finals appearances, as compared to an average of 33% for LeBron.
The verdict
Ultimately, this analysis probably leaves us in a similar place to where I landed in 2018. If you're picking a team to win one game, Jordan's peak performance makes him the right choice.
But in another way, LeBron has already tipped the scales in his favor.
Four championships might not be greater than six, but appearing in 10 NBA Finals and counting -- and starring in eight of them so far -- adds weight to LeBron's side of the argument that MJ can't match.
Simply put: No player has done as much to help his team win at the highest level as LeBron James.