How will Daryl Morey view the Philadelphia 76ers roster he's set to inherit?
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski broke the stunning news Wednesday that Morey is in talks to take over Philadelphia's basketball operations not long after resigning from a similar role with the Houston Rockets.
Morey brings a new perspective to a roster built in part by GM Elton Brand, who will remain in his current position, according to Wojnarowski.
What might that mean for Sixers stars Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, as well as the supporting pieces around them? Let's take a look.
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There will be trades
In the wake of Morey's decision to step away in Houston, a stat made the rounds. During his tenure with the Rockets, only one team made more trades: Philadelphia, which was most active during the three-season regime of Sam Hinkie, formerly assistant GM under Morey with the Rockets.
While Morey might never say this, it's reasonable to conclude he and Hinkie expected to "win" every trade they made, at least in terms of adding value to their teams regardless of how much the other team benefited. Given that prospect, why not make as many trades as possible to continue upgrading?
(An analysis by Jared Dubin of FiveThirtyEight found that the players and draft picks Houston acquired in trades under Morey produced far more value than the players and picks the Rockets gave up in those deals.)
That history suggests that the 76ers will be active, though possibly more around the edges than with the foundation of the roster.
When Morey first took charge of Houston's front office, the Rockets kept their then-superstar duo of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming but changed the mix around them. Most notably, Morey dealt the No. 8 pick of the 2006 draft (used to take Rudy Gay) to the Memphis Grizzlies for Shane Battier, one of his signature moves that worked well for both teams.
Valuing stars
The biggest question looming in Philadelphia is whether to break up the Embiid-Simmons duo because of their fit and overlapping skill sets. While no such move has been signaled, Morey's arrival could change that thinking since he's not as tied to either star player as the incumbent front office. Brand wasn't yet in the 76ers' front office when the team drafted Embiid and Simmons, but he was a teammate of Embiid's at the end of his playing career and served as a player development consultant during Simmons' rookie year.
At the same time, as much as Morey is associated with 3-pointers and the evolution of the league toward shooting them, an equally strong trend throughout his career is the pursuit of star talent like Embiid and Simmons.
A simplistic analysis will look at Morey's belief in the value of 3-pointers and Simmons' unwillingness to shoot them and conclude that Simmons is the odd man out. It's worth remembering that Morey's philosophy of maximizing shot value (aka "Moreyball") also puts high emphasis on shots at the rim and trips to the free throw line, both of which Simmons is capable of delivering.
Beyond that, there's Simmons' ability to create 3-pointers for his teammates. As noted by Jacob Goldstein, Simmons ranks second behind Russell Westbrook in assisting 3-pointers over his three active seasons, according to Second Spectrum tracking. As a result, Cleaning the Glass data shows the Sixers have shot 3s more frequently with Simmons on the court the past two seasons while also attempting shots at the rim far more often.
Another simplistic analysis would look at Morey's move toward playing without a center in Houston and conclude that Embiid is the odd man out. I don't think that one adds up either. The Rockets' move toward extreme small ball was an attempt to maximize Westbrook's effectiveness rather than an overriding Morey philosophy. After all, Houston spent market value to re-sign Clint Capela to a five-year contract in the summer of 2018.
Ultimately, I don't think Morey will deal either Embiid or Simmons unless he's getting another All-NBA player in return.
Tweaks in short term, bold changes in long term
From a big-picture perspective, I'm not sure Morey's arrival will dramatically change Philadelphia's game plan. For now, the 76ers will most likely look to maximize the Embiid-Simmons duo with their new coach -- recently hired Doc Rivers -- and different pieces around them.
Morey would probably be more inclined to trade starting forward Tobias Harris, who re-signed on a five-year, $180 million deal last summer after the Sixers gave up a lavish package to acquire him from the LA Clippers before the 2019 trade deadline. However, Harris' disappointing 2019-20 campaign and big contract will make it difficult to move him for value. The same is true of Al Horford, Philadelphia's big-ticket addition in the summer of 2019.
Beyond that, the 76ers' short-term moves are largely telegraphed. They'll surely look to move Mike Scott and Zhaire Smith to cut their luxury-tax bill, which might give Morey the ability to go shopping with the team's taxpayer midlevel exception.
Things might get more interesting down the road. If Morey's former team ever decides to trade former MVP James Harden, Philadelphia would be an obvious destination. The Rockets' deal for Harden in October 2012 was the centerpiece of the Morey era, and a reunion in Philadelphia might make sense for both sides. In Embiid or Simmons, the Sixers could offer a younger star for Houston to rebuild around post-Harden.
Over time, we'll also get an idea of Philadelphia ownership's appetite to pay the tax, something the Rockets skillfully avoided doing in recent seasons. Some tax bill is inevitable for the 76ers, who would be nearly $14 million over the tax line based solely on their 10 guaranteed contracts if it remains the same as in 2019-20. Whether Philadelphia will spend deep into the tax will affect Morey's flexibility with the roster.
For example, the Sixers could attempt this offseason to trade for Chris Paul, a part of the Houston team that came nearest to delivering a championship under Morey in 2017-18. But adding Paul's $41 million salary would almost certainly increase Philadelphia's tax bill.
We may have a better idea soon whether looser purse strings were a factor in Morey's decision to return to the league so quickly after leaving the Rockets. By then, we'll also get a sense of how Morey views the 76ers' roster.