Saying the 2019-20 season didn't go according to plan for the Philadelphia 76ers would be a major understatement.
When the Sixers brass put a core four together -- their homegrown duo of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons plus Tobias Harris and Al Horford -- many predicted Philly would represent the East in the 2020 NBA Finals.
Instead, the best they could muster was a first-round flameout at the hands of the Boston Celtics. A day later, the Sixers fired head coach Brett Brown.
Now with the Sixers expected to hire former Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey to run basketball operations, according to a report by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, and with former Clippers coach Doc Rivers on board, the questions turn to the roster. Should they keep Embiid and Simmons together?
Let's hit the most important goals for Philly's offseason and break down its trade assets, draft options and cap space.
Note: The financials in here are based on the salary cap and luxury tax holding at the 2019-20 levels, as expected.
MORE: Biggest trade, free agency and draft decisions for every eliminated NBA team
The finances of the roster: now and the future
Rivers will coach the roster that projects to be the second-most expensive (behind Golden State) in the NBA next year. Philadelphia is likely married to the roster it put together last summer and there is no magic formula to fix the Sixers' finances.
With Ben Simmons' rookie max extension now set to begin, the 76ers will enter the offseason with a payroll of $151 million -- $19 million over the luxury tax threshold, meaning a $39 million penalty before free agency begins.
Simmons, Embiid, Harris and Horford will combine to earn $122 million of the $151 million in committed salary.
Here is the breakdown of the four players over the next three seasons:
Some adjustments to those salaries might be necessary: Only $14.5 million is guaranteed to Horford in 2022-23.
Because the 76ers have four second-round picks (unlikely that all will be kept), there is a possibility that a portion of their midlevel will be used to sign a player (or players) selected.
Signing a player to the $5.7 million tax midlevel would cost an additional $20 million and increase their tax bill to $54 million, fourth-highest in league history (behind only previous Brooklyn and Oklahoma City rosters and likely next season's Warriors). This would be the first time for the Sixers to pay the luxury tax since the 2003-04 season, when their penalty was $5 million.
The $81 million left on Horford's contract right now is considered close to unmovable. The 34-year-old still has value -- with the 76ers in the right circumstance (at center) or with another team -- but there is less appetite for his contract.
Likewise, the few teams that do have cap space would likely pass on the $147 million left on Harris' contract if the 76ers wanted to shed what he is owed. Philadelphia could identify a team like Sacramento which might have buyer[s remorse on its recent contracts -- of Harrison Barnes and Buddy Hield, in this case. A swap of those two for Harris and Josh Richardson would work but add an additional $15 million to Philly's tax bill.
Then there are the 76ers' two franchise players: Simmons and Embiid. Simmons is under contract through the 2024-25 season and Embiid 2022-23. Both players have plenty of trade value.
But is moving one of them really the route to making this roster work? While the chemistry has been questioned, the Sixers are better off with them, clearly -- getting swept on the heels of Simmons' injury demonstrates that. So unless there is a blockbuster opportunity to improve and rebalance the team, I would expect the Sixers to keep both All-Stars.
The direction with five draft picks
Having second-round picks the past two years has given the 76ers options on draft night. In 2018, we saw them package No. 56 and No. 60 to move up to No. 54 and take Shake Milton -- who this season became their starting point guard.
Last year, Philly sent its own first (No. 24) and second (No. 33) to Boston for Matisse Thybulle (No. 20). In all, the Sixers have made seven transactions ranging from trading out of the second round for future assets to prioritizing quality (Milton and Thybulle) over quantity.
This year, the 76ers once again have an astounding number of draft picks: one first-round pick and four seconds.
Here are some of the options and decisions that the front office will face:
Can a roster that was built with title aspirations punt on free agency and fill the open roster spots with five draft picks? Including the non-guaranteed contract of Furkan Korkmaz, the 76ers have 10 players. This would be the cost-efficient measure considering that the five new players would combine to earn seven million dollars, in contrast to one player at the $5.7 million tax midlevel and two more with the $1.6 million minimum exception.
Even with its roster crunch, Philadelphia could sign two of the second-round picks to two-way contracts and build out the bench with the other three prospects. Remember that Philadelphia for the foreseeable future will need to rely on the tax midlevel and minimum exception when it comes to its roster.
Trade Nos. 49 and 59 for cash to offset the luxury tax bill. Last year the 76ers traded the 42nd pick and the contract of Jonathon Simmons to Orlando for $2 million.
Trade Nos. 34 and 36 for future draft assets. In 2018, Philadelphia sent the 38th and 39th picks to Detroit and the Lakers. In exchange the 76ers received two future seconds (2021 and 2023) from the Pistons and a 2019 second (via Chicago) plus $1.5 million from the Lakers. Philly then sent the Pistons' second-round picks to the LA Clippers as part of the 2019 Tobias Harris trade and the 2019 Bulls second was flipped for three future second-round picks.
Trade Nos. 21 and 36 to a team like Brooklyn at No. 19. This is comparable to last year when the 76ers moved up four slots to draft Thybulle.
Offseason cap breakdown
Notes:
Before free agency starts, Philadelphia is $19 million over the luxury tax threshold.
Because the 76ers are a tax team, they will have the $5.7 million tax midlevel and minimum exception.
Depth chart
The resources available to build the roster
The draft: One first-round pick and four seconds
$5.6 million to send or receive in a trade
$5.7 million tax and minimum exception
Dates to watch
The $1.8 million contract of Korkmaz is non-guaranteed. The former first-round pick has averaged a career high in minutes (21.6), points (9.6) and 3-point percentage (39.8). It is all but guaranteed that the guard will see his salary protected for next season.
Because the 76ers have four first-round picks and 10 players under contract, Norvel Pelle could become a roster casualty. Pelle's $1.5 million contract becomes guaranteed three days after free agency begins.
Restrictions
Because Philadelphia will be over the luxury tax apron, they are not allowed to acquire a free agent in a sign-and-trade.
The 76ers received $2 million for the Pistons as part of a draft-night trade last year and are restricted to receiving no more than $3.6 million in a trade. Their full cash allotment of $5.6 million will replenish when free agency begins.
Tobias Harris and Simmons each have a 15% trade bonus. If either player is traded, the bonus becomes voided because it would exceed the maximum salary allowed in one season.
Extension candidates
Richardson is the lone player on the roster who is extension eligible.The guard is eligible to sign a four-year, $58.4 million extension. The $13.3 million salary in the first year would replace his player option for the 2021-22. If there is not an extension in place, Richardson will likely opt out of his contract (barring an injury) and become a free agent in 2021.
The draft assets
The 76ers traded its own first to the Clippers (it's now in the hands of Brooklyn) as part of the Harris trade, but remain flush with draft assets for this October. From the Jerami Grant trade in 2016, Philadelphia has a first from Oklahoma City. The 76ers also have four selections in the second round: its own, as well as ones from Atlanta, New York and the L.A. Lakers.
Here is how Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz has Philadelphia selecting in November:
No. 21 (via OKC) Nico Mannion | Arizona | PG
No. 34 (via ATL) Daniel Oturu | Minnesota | C
No. 36 (via NYK) Tre Jones | Cholet | PG/SG
No. 49 (own) Reggie Perry | Mississippi St. | PF/C
No. 59 (via LAL) Josh Hall | Moravian Prep | PG