What should four NBA teams with big decisions to make -- the Brooklyn Nets, Golden State Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder and Philadelphia 76ers -- be thinking about their trade prospects?
Because the NBA has had a moratorium on offseason transactions since teams completed their 2019-20 campaigns, we haven't had an NBA trade since the Feb. 6 deadline. Last week, team executives confirmed to ESPN's Bobby Marks and Brian Windhorst that the moratorium will be lifted ahead of next month's postponed NBA draft (scheduled for Nov. 18).
With the trade market to reopen soon, what's next for the Nets, Warriors, Thunder and Sixers? Let's take a look, team by team.
Brooklyn Nets
With Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving set to return to the court for 2020-21 training camp, the Nets' focus shifts to how best to complement the superstar duo. And that could mean packaging players who don't fit as well to land a third star more comfortable playing off Durant and Irving.
Brooklyn's best choice to trade is wing Caris LeVert, who enhanced his value with a strong run as the Nets' No. 1 option in the bubble. LeVert averaged 25.0 points and 6.7 assists in six seeding games, leading Brooklyn to a 3-3 record in those games despite a short-handed roster without five of the nine Nets who had averaged at least 20 minutes per game before play stopped due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
At 26, LeVert is primed to play a bigger role elsewhere than would be possible alongside Durant and Irving. Playing with those stars emphasizes the weakest part of LeVert's game: spot-up jump shooting. While he made a career-high 36% of his 3-point attempts in 2019-20, that was primarily driven by his accuracy on pull-up attempts (39%, per NBA Advanced Stats). LeVert shot just 32% on 1.7 catch-and-shoot 3 attempts per game, slightly below his career average of 33%.
While this offseason looks like the ideal opportunity for the Nets to deal LeVert, the timing of a possible trade will be driven more by who's available. Brooklyn should be eyeing Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal and New Orleans Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday as possible additions, and it's not clear either of them will be attainable now.
Of those two players, Holiday in particular stands out as a strong fit. An All-Defensive pick in 2017-18 and 2018-19, Holiday would upgrade the Nets' perimeter defense while also providing better floor-spacing than LeVert. Holiday has shot 37% on catch-and-shoot 3s since tracking data first began in 2013-14, per Second Spectrum.
I would make a deal for Holiday built around LeVert now, particularly if Brooklyn could keep center Jarrett Allen out of the return package. If the Pelicans would rather keep Holiday heading into 2020-21, Brooklyn is probably fine waiting to see if Holiday or Beal becomes available before the trade deadline.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are in an interesting position because the clock is ticking on two of their best trade options: the No. 2 overall pick in this year's draft and the $17.2 million trade exception they generated in the Andre Iguodala trade, which will expire shortly after the beginning of free agency.
As I explained the night of the lottery, using the exception would add huge sums to Golden State's luxury-tax bill during a season when the Warriors surely won't benefit from the earning potential of the new Chase Center as they imagined prior to the pandemic. And there probably won't be a veteran player available who both fits into the exception and is worth giving up the No. 2 pick.
The question then becomes what other paths are available to the Warriors to best make use of the exception and their pick. One possibility is taking back a smaller salary and sending center Kevon Looney in return, which would mitigate the tax hit and allow Golden State to create a new trade exception for Looney's $4.8 million salary that could be used over the next year.
Another potentially related possibility is trading down from No. 2 lower in the lottery. A deal for a lesser lotto pick and a veteran could essentially split the difference on whether the Warriors should think long term with the No. 2 pick (targeting a star who can extend their run beyond the primes of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson) or try to maximize their chances of winning another championship while the veterans are still in their primes.
Trading down also makes sense if Golden State is not enamored with the trio of prospects (LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards and James Wiseman) likely to go with the top three picks. In a draft with few sharp distinctions between prospects, the Warriors might prefer Deni Avdija, Tyrese Haliburton or Onyeka Okongwu and look to add one of those more polished players as well as a veteran.
Lastly, there's the bigger possibility: combining this year's No. 2 pick and the top-three protected 2021 pick Golden State received from the Minnesota Timberwolves in the D'Angelo Russell trade in pursuit of a star such as Beal or Holiday. Because those players wouldn't fit into the exception, the Warriors would likely have to include Andrew Wiggins to help match salary, with Green a less palatable option from the Warriors' point of view.
Alas, the timing probably isn't right for Golden State. Washington doesn't seem inclined to move Beal now, and the Warriors might want to hold on to the 2021 pick just in case Giannis Antetokounmpo becomes available via trade. Antetokounmpo to Golden State is an extreme long shot, at best, but the Warriors built a dynasty on improbable outcomes.
Oklahoma City Thunder
After trading away All-Stars Paul George and Russell Westbrook last summer, the Thunder surprised by improving their winning percentage and coming within a blocked Luguentz Dort 3-pointer of winning a playoff series.
Oklahoma City shouldn't expect a repeat of 2019-20, and all indications are the front office is realistic about the team's prospects. The Thunder enjoyed unusually good health, with Chris Paul playing 70 of the team's 72 games and Danilo Gallinari 62. They also outperformed their point differential, which ranked seventh in the Western Conference, thanks to the NBA's best net rating in clutch situations, as defined by NBA Advanced Stats.
With West foes loading up for 2020-21, the situation is ripe for Oklahoma City to pivot to a rebuild around the team's young talent, headlined by guards Dort and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and forward Darius Bazley, all of them 22 or younger.
That means looking for a lot in return on a Paul deal after he performed well following an injury-marred 2018-19 campaign. Paul is 35 and unlikely to remain as healthy going forward, so the Thunder just getting out of his $44 million player option for 2021-22 would be a win. If Oklahoma City gets value in return in the form of young players or draft picks, all the better.
A sign-and-trade deal involving Gallinari, an unrestricted free agent, could return some minor value and would work for the Thunder so long as it doesn't take their payroll near the luxury-tax line. Oklahoma City also will likely consider moving center Steven Adams and guard Dennis Schroder, both in the final seasons of their contracts, with the possibility of putting off those deals until the deadline.
By the end of the 2020-21 campaign, OKC's roster might look quite different. Thanks to the young talent on hand and the draft picks coming from the George and Westbrook trades, Oklahoma City has the chance to rebuild quickly and sustainably.
Philadelphia 76ers
Too often, we talk about whether the Sixers will have to break up their All-Star duo of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons as if Philadelphia's only options are trading one of them for whatever return is out there or doing nothing. If a player of similar value who's also a better fit with the remaining player comes along, of course the 76ers should make the trade regardless of whether they "need" to make a trade or not.
Realistically, that offer is probably not coming any time soon. As a result, the 76ers' offseason focus will likely be more on how to better complement Embiid and Simmons. And that focuses attention on Al Horford after a disappointing first season in Philadelphia that saw former coach Brett Brown move Horford to the bench when both Embiid and Simmons were healthy.
Lineups with Horford alongside both Embiid and Simmons struggled, posting an offensive rating in the third percentile of all qualifying lineups leaguewide (minimum 15 possessions), per Cleaning the Glass data. Realistically, Horford should probably be a full-time center at this stage of his career. During the regular season, Sixers lineups with Horford at center posted a plus-5.8 net rating, according to analysis of lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats, as compared to minus-0.2 points per 100 possessions when he played power forward.
With the option of replacing Horford as Embiid's backup at a relatively low cost in free agency, Philadelphia has to consider deals that would bring back a perimeter player in return. In particular, Sacramento Kings guard Buddy Hield has been mooted as a possible option given his similar contract (he currently has a cap hit of $88 million over the four years of an extension that kicks in this season) and unhappiness after being demoted to the bench midseason.
If the 76ers could make a deal like that, it's worth doing. Consider me skeptical of the Hield possibility, in particular, given the new Kings front office led by Monte McNair won't likely have as much urgency to make the playoffs in 2020-21 as the incumbent group would have. Adding a 34-year-old center guaranteed $69 million over the next three years seems unlikely to be the first move for a new front office.
While Philadelphia also should consider trading Tobias Harris for a more mobile perimeter defender if such a deal is available, odds are the Sixers will probably bring back a relatively similar group and hope Doc Rivers can fit the players together. If that doesn't work, Philadelphia will have more urgency to make a move by the deadline.