The Golden State Warriors have a big decision ahead.
During Thursday's NBA draft lottery, Golden State's season out of the playoffs after five consecutive trips to the NBA Finals translated to the No. 2 overall pick.
With Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green still Warriors, dealing that pick for a veteran could help the team return to contention immediately.
Let's run through Golden State's options for finding an instant contributor or future star in the draft and consider the trade possibilities.
The Kawhi Leonard path
The dream scenario for the Warriors is drafting someone who can contribute immediately as a role player alongside their veteran stars before moving into a leading role as the current generation ages. That's exactly what the San Antonio Spurs pulled off when they traded for the pick used to draft Kawhi Leonard in 2011.
As a rookie, Leonard started 34 of his 59 games for a team that posted the NBA's best record in the regular season, but he was responsible for using just 14.5% of the Spurs' plays. By Year 3, Leonard was Finals MVP, albeit still in a role with a below-average usage rate (18% during the regular season). That jumped to 23% in Year 4, and by the following season, Leonard became an All-NBA First Team pick.
Finding a player like that is easier said than done. Since Leonard, only Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics has followed a similar path, as a role player on a good team who developed into a star. (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might join him in time, while Donovan Mitchell and Ben Simmons don't qualify because they took on large roles from day one in the NBA.)
Leonard and Tatum both started in 3-and-D roles and graduated to being primary ball handlers for their teams, and there really isn't anyone in this year's draft who projects to have a similar trajectory. No. 1 overall prospect Anthony Edwards and Isaac Okoro are the closest matches, but neither is likely to be an effective spot-up shooter right away. Both made just 29% of their 3s as freshmen, and though Leonard shot the same percentage in his second and final season at San Diego State, his rapid development as a shooter is the exception, not the rule.
Instead, I think the big men in this year's draft have a better chance of following the Leonard path. Playing center alongside Green, Onyeka Okongwu and James Wiseman are prospects who could be put in defined roles that play to their strengths as finishers and rim protectors -- similar to the way Golden State used Marquese Chriss last season.
It's worth wondering, however, whether that investment is worth it. If the Warriors can get credible play from Chriss, who washed out in his first three stops after being a lottery pick, do they need to invest a high lottery pick in a center?
The low-upside path
When we expand the pool of rookie contributors to look at anyone who helped a winning team right away but did not become a superstar, we add many players -- including former Golden State forward Harrison Barnes, who played the most minutes per game in the playoffs as a rookie (38.4) of any player in the past decade.
This group is heavily populated by quality defenders. OG Anunoby, Malcolm Brogdon, Taurean Prince and Josh Richardson are all examples of players who were capable of helping in the postseason because they could hold their own defensively while making open 3-pointers.
If the Warriors are more concerned about immediate contributions than long-term upside, the two players who stand out in this year's draft class are Tyrese Haliburton and Devin Vassell. Vassell is the best 3-and-D wing available. Haliburton has enough size to play alongside Curry in the backcourt and is a dangerous shooter when left open.
Given that Haliburton is No. 8 and Vassell No. 16 in our top 100 rankings for this year's draft, as compiled by Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz, drafting them with Golden State's pick might be a reach.
The "light years" path
Alternatively, the Warriors could forget about immediate contributions and draft the player with the most long-term upside to be their next star. That brings Edwards back into the mix, as the potential to combine his strength and athleticism with what the Warriors would hope would be improved shooting and decision-making could make him an elite contributor down the road. For now, he figures to be something of a worse-shooting version of what the team already has in Andrew Wiggins.
For a pick based purely on upside, I would draft LaMelo Ball. Properly developed, the court vision and shooting range that Ball flashed during his brief stint in the Australian NBL show major star potential. Because he's currently so inefficient as a shooter and undisciplined as a defender, Ball would be hard-pressed to help the Warriors immediately, but I think he has the best chance to be a star within five years.
The trade path
Having considered what Golden State might be forfeiting by trading its pick, let's consider what dealing for a veteran might mean. The first potential impact is financial. By utilizing their trade exception from the Andre Iguodala deal with the pick, the Warriors could add a player who will make up to $17.2 million next season.
Adding salary looked a lot more palatable for Golden State before the COVID-19 pandemic interrupted NBA business as usual. Including their draft pick, the Warriors are committed to more than $150 million in 2020-21 salary before filling out their roster via free agency. That puts them well into the luxury tax if the league decides to maintain this year's cap ($109.1 million) and tax ($132.7 million) levels for 2020-21 to smooth out revenue losses related to the pandemic, a possibility that Adrian Wojnarowski reported in his discussion of changes to offseason timing.
Let's say Golden State made no other additions in free agency for more than the veterans minimum. In that scenario, dealing the pick for a player making $17 million in 2020-21 would bring the team's tax bill to a record $103 million with a total payroll nearing $270 million -- a $40 million increase compared to keeping the pick.
That kind of expenditure might have been worth it back when the Warriors could count on new revenue streams generated by their arena, the Chase Center, which opened in November. With the NBA's ability to play in front of fans over the next year uncertain, Golden State can't count on offsetting the tax bill by hosting sellout crowds deep into the playoffs.
Of course, the deep-pocketed Warriors might be willing to pay the price for another veteran while the championship window is open. During Thursday's lottery broadcast, Wojnarowski reported they would be active seeking a trade for a player more on the same timeline as their stars. Finding such a veteran who's both available and good enough to be a difference-maker would be difficult, if not impossible -- especially because the other team would have to value the lottery pick more than the Warriors do.
The verdict: The Warriors might not find a trade that works
Because trades aren't made in a vacuum, when the question is posed of whether a team should trade something, the response should always be "for what?" I don't see the veteran player who justifies giving up the upside of the No. 2 pick.
One possibility worth exploring is trading the pick for a player currently on his rookie contract, in which case Golden State would be sacrificing future years of cost control and upside in favor of someone more capable of helping the team's stars win while they're still in their late primes. Such a move might also save the team some money next season.
For example, I'd probably be willing to trade the pick for either of a pair of 23-year-old forwards: Anunoby, in his third year with Toronto, or Mikal Bridges, in his second year with the Phoenix Suns. Either Anunoby or Bridges could fill Barnes' old role at both forward spots and actually make far less than Golden State's pick because they were drafted later in the first round (Bridges No. 10, Anunoby No. 23). But I'm not sure either of those teams would be interested in taking a step backward by dealing a key piece for a draft pick.
Short of that, I might consider trading back to the middle or end of the lottery to pick up additional picks or players while targeting Haliburton, Vassell or a similar role player.
I believe the Warriors should trade the pick if they can add a contributor who substantially increases their championship odds or is more certain to fit than the player they draft. But I also think finding that trade is a lot harder than it sounds.