How much will Russell Westbrook's injury hurt the Houston Rockets' chances of beating the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the NBA playoffs? That series will set up the winner for a potential Western Conference second-round showdown with the Los Angeles Lakers.
An MRI Wednesday revealed a strained quad muscle for Westbrook, who's now expected to miss at least the start of the team's playoff series next week. How will the Rockets replace Westbrook and how much will they miss his presence?
Let's break it down and project the OKC-Houston series.
Houston without Westbrook
It's possible that Westbrook's injury will mean the Rockets open the playoffs with a starting lineup they used just twice during the regular season (including seeding games): James Harden and Eric Gordon at guard, with a front line of Robert Covington, Danuel House and P.J. Tucker. That fivesome started two games in February that Westbrook sat out, going 1-1.
Of course, Westbrook isn't Houston's only injury concern. House, who has started 52 of the 63 games he's played this season, has missed the past two games with a sprained left toe. And Gordon is just working back from an ankle sprain that sidelined him for the first six seeding games. He was limited to 20 minutes in his return Wednesday.
If Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni is forced to go deeper into his bench, Ben McLemore is probably next up -- he's started the last four games due to injury. Houston also has Austin Rivers, who's averaged more than 30 minutes in the past four games. In any case, Westbrook's absence puts pressure on the team's other perimeter players to stay healthy to fill all the guard minutes required to play small for 48 minutes a night.
What if D'Antoni has to go even further down the depth chart? Rookie guard Michael Frazier, on a two-way contract, has been called into heavy duty in the seeding games due to injury. His 62 minutes during the restart so far nearly matches his previous career total (66). In a playoff setting, the Thunder would likely be able to put the slender 6-foot-3 Frazier in tough matchups by forcing him to switch on the likes of Danilo Gallinari and Steven Adams.
Of course, Harden's presence is a given, but his role changes with Westbrook off the court. As I noted earlier this month, Harden and Westbrook have moved in opposite directions in terms of Basketball-Reference game score -- that is, when Westbrook plays better, Harden tends to play worse.
That effect is naturally amplified with Westbrook off the court entirely. In the 12 games Harden has played with Westbrook out -- which, granted, tended to be timed against sub-.500 opponents -- Harden has averaged 39.1 points, 8.6 assists and 8.2 rebounds per game.
One of the big questions about the Rockets in the restart was whether four-plus months off would benefit Harden, who seemed to wear down -- and defer more to Westbrook -- before the stoppage. So far, so good. In six seeding games, Harden has averaged nearly a point per minute (35.3 PPG in 35.8 MPG), 9.2 RPG and 8.7 APG. Most remarkably, he's shot 36-of-57 (77%) on 2-point attempts, a dramatic improvement on his 54% mark during the regular season.
While the heroics of Devin Booker and Damian Lillard have understandably gotten more attention, given both players are fighting to lead their teams to the playoffs, Harden has been the most valuable player in seeding games so far, according to my wins above replacement player metric. And that's despite sitting out one of his team's seven games. With Harden performing at this level, Houston might not need Westbrook to return right away.
Where Westbrook will be missed
If Harden continues to single-handedly scorch the nets, we can expect the Thunder to react more aggressively in a playoff series than opponents did during the seeding games. That means trapping Harden at half court on a regular basis to force the ball out of his hands, something we saw at times during the regular season and that Oklahoma City's three-guard lineups are well suited to execute.
The way the remaining Rockets react to traps changes with Westbrook on the bench and unavailable to serve as a secondary playmaker with a numbers advantage over the defense. Gordon, the team's best remaining playmaker, will be under pressure to create opportunities for himself and teammates. Conversely, the Thunder won't have the ability to leave anyone open on the initial trap because Westbrook was the only Houston regular who isn't a capable 3-point shooter.
The bigger issue the Rockets might face is how to handle the handful of minutes Harden spends on the bench. Because of D'Antoni's strict adherence to staggering the minutes of his stars, Houston has played just 357 minutes all season with neither former MVP on the court, a good chunk of that in garbage time. According to lineup data at Cleaning the Glass, which accounts for garbage time, the Rockets' offensive rating dips from 112.0 points per 100 possessions with Westbrook on the court and Harden off to 105.6 with neither.
Again, a healthy Gordon looms large as a shot creator in those scenarios. Lineups that included Gordon but neither Harden nor Westbrook were actually quite efficient (113.2 offensive rating) in a small sample size (295 possessions, about three games' worth).
Short Westbrook absence survivable
Ultimately, I'm not sure Westbrook's absence moves the needle dramatically on the Thunder's chances of upsetting Houston. That's not a verdict on Westbrook's value so much as an indication of the Rockets' unique ability to overcome the loss of one MVP by loading more offensive responsibility on the plate of their other one.
A long-term Westbrook absence would be much more likely to cause problems for Houston down the road. Barring a major first-round upset in the West 1 vs. 8 series, the winner of this series will face the Lakers in the conference semifinals -- a series for which the Rockets would want to be 100% to increase their odds of an upset.
The extra load on Harden could cause him to expend whatever extra gas is available in his tank after the layoff in a hurry, particularly if D'Antoni has to minimize his minutes on the bench to avoid Oklahoma City runs. We've seen in previous years how hard it is for Houston to make deep playoff runs when Harden is carrying too large a load.
Additionally, the longer Westbrook is out, the better chance that another Rockets perimeter player goes down. In that case, Houston would be forced to either extend the minutes of the remaining healthy players or go deep into the bench, as noted.
More than anything else, Westbrook's injury reduces the Rockets' margin for error. They can survive this round if nothing else goes wrong, but they're one more injury away from big trouble.