What's at stake in the 2020 NBA draft lottery on Aug. 20? And how will the unprecedented circumstances surrounding this draft change things for teams?
All but three slots in the lottery are locked in, and the final odds will be settled following the Western Conference play-in this weekend.
Our NBA insiders answer the big questions heading into the drawing, including the latest intel from teams, the race for the No. 1 pick and the potential trade implications to watch.
What's different about the way teams are evaluating this draft?
The blueprint for a normal pre-draft process has been thrown out the window. with the uncertainty regarding what next season will look like forcing teams to change everything about how they plan for the future.
It started with the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March, costing teams in-person scouting opportunities at postseason tournaments. Private workouts, the draft combine and pro days have also been eliminated, further removing valuable tools teams usually use to bolster their scouting files.
Instead, diving into the film has become the primary evaluation tool teams are using to grade and rank players. Front offices are bolstering that by gathering background intel, conducting virtual interviews and attempting to uncover any medical red flags from players' injury histories. It's not a stretch to say that teams will be drafting players with the least amount of information they have ever had.
As hopes for an in-person combine have faded, NBA teams are mostly hoping to have access to some medical information in the form of a standardized physical examination by NBA-certified doctors. That could prove difficult as well. One solution that has been floated is relatively haphazard: Using a sort of honor system where players are asked to upload their medical histories to a centralized location. -- Jonathan Givony
Mike Schmitz breaks down former Georgia star Anthony Edwards' game and how it will translate to the NBA.
What's different about this pre-draft process, and what could change between now and draft day?
Be prepared for a major shift in draft philosophy.
The likelihood of no summer league and potential for a shortened offseason means there's very little time to help get prospects acclimated with the rigors of the NBA game, their teammates and their coaching staff. Some prospects will have gone a full calendar year between competitive games whenever the regular season tips, and a spike in injuries during that ramp up has to be a concern. This transition is going to be more difficult than normal for most rookies.
Teams are talking about significantly altering the way they approach the second round. The depth of the 2020 draft took a significant hit when close to two dozen draftable players decided not to enter due to the uncertainty caused by the pandemic. Teams were hesitant to provide prospects who were testing the waters real assurances about their draft stock, causing many to return to school.
Younger players who are years away from contributing and will require significant hands-on development could be much less attractive than usual. There are major questions about what the G League will look like next season, given the significant reliance on commercial travel.
The unknowns don't stop there: Where will players on two-way contracts spend their time outside of the 45 days they are allowed to be with their NBA teams? What will the appetite be among NBA teams -- who will likely be losing significant amounts of money if forced to play without fans in arenas -- to invest resources in fringe players? Will they even want to spend on two-way contracts? How many will carry 15 players on the roster?
With the salary cap and luxury tax in flux, many teams expect to be forced to use their 2020 draft picks to unload salary before free agency. Some front office members say they've been actively seeking out second-round prospects who are willing to be stashed internationally. Knowing that a player will have a strong development situation during the 2020-21 season could cause their draft stock to rise.
Things could still evolve over the next eight weeks. While in-market, pre-draft workouts are likely out of the question, teams hope the NBA lifts its moratorium on executives visiting players wherever they're training. Executives want the evaluation opportunity, but many also value a face-to-face meeting before making a selection, especially in the lottery.
Right now, NBA teams technically aren't even allowed to watch footage of players working out in gyms, which would prevent them from tuning in to virtual pro days or a similar venture. Agents are hoping this changes so they have a chance to improve their clients' standing and highlight improvements over the past five months. -- Givony
Richard Jefferson tells top NBA prospect James Wiseman what to say if he blocks Anthony Davis.
Who has a real case for the No. 1 pick?
This competition comes down to three prospects: Georgia's Anthony Edwards, the NBL's LaMelo Ball and Memphis' James Wiseman. In a draft somewhat devoid of real superstar power at the top, teams view these three as having the most traditional upside.
Here's the case for each:
Anthony Edwards
Teams see a dynamic three-level scorer with the potential to develop into a primary shot creator in the mold of Donovan Mitchell or Victor Oladipo. Standing close to 6-foot-5, 225 pounds with a wingspan over 6-10, Edwards is a powerful athlete with the footwork and shooting potential to drop in highly difficult jumpers from all over the floor. He also has glimpses of James Harden-esque shiftiness.
Such as when he dropped 37 points on Michigan State in Maui, Edwards has had stretches where he looks unguardable while also adding value as a defender and facilitator. Few people in the league question Edwards' talent. If the draft were today, he'd be the most likely No. 1 selection.
But Edwards did sleepwalk his way through several games this season. He left much to be desired on the defensive end and didn't improve his shaky shot selection, with jump shots making up more than 67% of his field goal attempts.
Edwards may develop into an All-Star caliber scorer, but some executives have questioned if he's the type of All-Star scorer you want to build around. He would be only the third No. 1 pick in NBA history to post a college true shooting percentage below 55%, joining Allen Iverson and Michael Olowokandi.
LaMelo Ball
Ball is the draft's most polarizing prospect. An oversized point guard with strong on-court instincts, uncanny court vision and immense creativity, he holds a lot of the traits teams look for in a franchise lead guard. He controls the ball on a string and plays with craft at 6-7, using touch shots and ambidexterity in the paint that will make him a scoring threat even when his streaky jumper isn't falling. He's also an excellent positional rebounder with the potential to become a factor if he ever decides to buy into playing with consistent defensive effort.
His greatest strength can also be his greatest weakness. He feels zero pressure on the floor, allowing him to make the type of home run plays few NBA stars can execute. But his shot selection, casual defensive approach and nontraditional path has led some executives to question his ability to turn around a losing situation.
If I were drafting first overall, Ball easily would be my selection, but he is not someone you can just slide into any situation. Ball's best chance to live up to his star potential is to have a franchise fully built around him, and that's a proposition not every GM is willing to make.
James Wiseman
Wiseman is maybe the most physically impressive center prospect I've evaluated. He has a strong frame, massive reach and agility as a runner at 7-foot-1. But his three-game sample at Memphis makes him considerably more difficult for teams to read.
Wiseman's intrigue revolves around his finishing ability, rim protection potential and glimpses of skill as a ball handler and shooter. He still has questions to answer about his on-court decision-making, defensive reaction time and durability, and teams will need to feel comfortable with his value as a center in today's game. Can you run your offense through him like Joel Embiid? Is he closer to Deandre Ayton's skill level? Or will his role be more rim-running, rebounding and defending like DeAndre Jordan in his prime? I've always viewed him in the Jordan mold, with more offensive versatility as he develops, but not every team sees it the same way.
There's really no consensus here among teams. Whoever goes No. 1 will depend a lot on next Thursday's draw. -- Mike Schmitz
Mike Schmitz breaks down which player the Warriors should take if they end up with the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft.
How do the contenders for the top pick stack up statistically?
Of the three players Mike mentioned as possible No. 1 overall picks, Ball is the clear standout in my statistical projections for NBA prospects -- albeit with a caveat. The sample size for Ball (12 regular-season NBL games) is tiny. Still, at age 18, Ball performed as one of the best players in a league that has historically rated slightly better than high-level Division I competition.
Ball's strong rates of defensive rebounds, assists and steals mark him as a promising prospect, though he still must improve his efficiency as a scorer after making just 25% of his frequent 3-point attempts in the NBL.
As Mike noted, Edwards' efficiency is also a concern. Based purely on his statistics at Georgia, Edwards rates as a good but not great prospect -- the kind with relatively high probability of either emerging as a star or disappointing. Adding in his top spot in our rankings lifts Edwards to the third-best consensus projection behind Ball and Tyrese Haliburton, a statistical standout.
Wiseman's statistics are the most difficult to interpret because he played just three games at Memphis, two of them against overmatched competition. Wiseman's dominance in those games stood in stark contrast to his middling advanced stats in Nike EYBL competition, which makes up the vast majority of his statistical projection.
Because Wiseman had a troublingly low steal rate (just five in 17 games) and wasn't an offensive force in the EYBL, he doesn't project well enough statistically to overcome the high replacement level for centers. That puts him at 16th in my projections, even after factoring in his top ranking. -- Kevin Pelton
How will the lottery set up the rest of the offseason?
The unknown economics of the league create uncertainty for everyone, but the lottery results will put in motion the early stages of an offseason plan for all 30 teams.
The Golden State Warriors -- going in with the best odds at the No. 1 pick -- will be able to canvas the league to see what value their top-five selection has. Without a clear can't miss-prospect at the top, the Warriors will have a few options if they score the first selection.
They could pursue moving back for additional assets. The Minnesota Timberwolves will have a high-lottery pick and a pick in the late teens that could be appealing. The New York Knicks will also have a lottery pick along with a late first-rounder via the LA Clippers and two future firsts via the Dallas Mavericks.
Golden State also can see if an All-Star player is available to add next to Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. What happens in the unlikely event that Bradley Beal or Oladipo asks to be traded? Is a combination of the No. 1 pick, the 2021 protected first via Minnesota and Andrew Wiggins enough?
That same question also applies to the New Orleans Pelicans. Including their 2020 lottery selection, the Pelicans have nine first-round picks (and swap rights with the Lakers in 2023) over the next seven years. Do they stay the course of drafting and developing or explore the trade market for a more established player?
Even teams still playing will have options when it comes to the lottery. The Boston Celtics will have three first-round picks and could explore moving up for a higher-impact player. Teams projected to land in the back of the lottery -- including the Hornets, Wizards and Suns (if they don't make the playoffs) -- will need to do their homework and decide if a volume of picks is a better way for their franchises to move forward. -- Bobby Marks
Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.
Mike Schmitz is an NBA draft expert and a contributor to DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.