How do the New Orleans Pelicans take the next few steps after firing head coach Alvin Gentry?
With an offseason for Zion Williamson to get back to full health, and the development of the young talent elsewhere on the roster, including All-Star Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball, this season's high hopes for a New Orleans playoff berth will be even higher under a new coach in 2020-21.
What actions must the front office and next coaching staff take to get the Pelicans back to the playoffs?
Let's break it down.
1. Help Zion maximize his defensive potential
The basic question for New Orleans' decision on Gentry's replacement should be which coach can get more out of Williamson defensively. He showed great promise at the defensive end at Duke, recording 3.9 steals per 100 plays and blocking 5.8% of opponent 2-point attempts.
Typically, those kind of "stock" (steal plus block) rates translate into an impact NBA defender. That wasn't the case when Zion returned from knee surgery in January. As Mike Schmitz and I broke down in February, Williamson looked unsure where to be and a step slow on defense. His rates of both blocks (1.3%) and steals (1.3 per 100 plays) declined far more than is typical for players making the transition from college to the NBA.
Despite those issues, Zion ostensibly had a positive impact on the Pelicans' defense, which allowed 10.2 fewer points per 100 possessions through the stoppage of play with him on the court, according to NBA Advanced Stats. The question was whether that was sustainable, given it relied heavily on opponents missing 3-pointers. (Per NBA Advanced Stats, they made just 31% of 3-point attempts with Williamson on the court, as compared to 37% with him on the bench.)
At least in the seeding games, with Zion visibly working back into game shape after missing nearly two weeks of activity when he left the bubble for personal reasons, it was not. Williamson did not record either a block or a steal in the five games he played, and New Orleans' defensive rating was 21.2 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the court. (In fairness, Zion missed the Pelicans' win over the Washington Wizards, who had the league's worst offensive rating in seeding games.)
For the Pelicans to get where they want to go, both next season and beyond, Williamson's defensive development will be paramount. You could argue that only his continued health is more important to New Orleans' future. That means finding a coach who can hold Zion accountable defensively and also help develop his understanding of the nuances of NBA defense. The physical tools are there. Now Williamson needs the experience and understanding to maximize them.
2. Decide on Derrick Favors
Ingram is the Pelicans' best free agent, but his situation does not present the team's most important free-agent decision. That's because ultimately there is no real decision to be made on Ingram, a restricted free agent. The only question is whether New Orleans re-signs him outright or waits to match an offer sheet from another team. Favors is a trickier proposition.
A below-average Pelicans defense was actually quite competitive with Favors on the court. According to Cleaning in the Glass, lineups with Favors ranked in the 70th percentile defensively across the league. Unlike with Zion, the difference with Favors on the court was based on more sustainable factors -- better rim protection, stronger defensive rebounding and fewer fouls. Though Favors-Williamson frontcourts are relatively lacking in shooting, they were actually better offensively -- and substantially better defensively -- than those pairing Zion and stretch big Nicolo Melli.
From that standpoint, then, the Favors decision sounds awfully easy. He's a priority to re-sign. The issue is how long New Orleans wants to commit to Favors, who turned 29 last month but has wear and tear after 10 NBA campaigns. Favors didn't seem like himself in the restart, blocking shots only a third as often as during the regular season and using a microscopic 11% of the Pelicans' plays.
New Orleans has 2019 lottery pick Jaxson Hayes, who's just 20, as a long-term option at center, and a new coach might want to experiment more with Williamson as the team's lone big man. (Such lineups saw just 56 minutes of action this season, per my analysis of lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats.) So the ideal outcome might be bringing Favors back on a short-term deal that maintains flexibility at center.
3. Upgrade the back end of the roster
Admittedly, part of the reason Favors was so important for the Pelicans -- who went 5-15 in the 20 games he missed, all of which Zion missed as well -- was because the team's center depth was lacking. New Orleans was outscored by 10.1 points per 100 possessions in Jahlil Okafor's 467 minutes of action, according to NBA Advanced Stats, and the team went 7-21 in games where he appeared in the first half.
In hindsight, the Pelican's misstep during an otherwise excellent summer of 2019 was waiving 24-year-old big man Christian Wood -- who was on a non-guaranteed contract -- in favor of signing Okafor. Wood translated his strong play at the end of the 2018-19 season in New Orleans into a larger role, eventually replacing Andre Drummond as a starter in Detroit. He would have helped not only as center depth but as a stretch big to play next to Williamson.
While the Pelicans aren't likely to find anyone as capable as Wood to fill out their center rotation, upgrading on Okafor shouldn't be difficult given the high replacement level for centers.
Depth also loomed large in the seeding games, when Zion's minutes were limited and Ball struggled with his shooting. In their must-win game against San Antonio, the Pelicans gave 10 minutes to Hayes and 17 minutes to backup guards Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Frank Jackson. Internal development from those young players should help New Orleans, and the team is also sure to get more out of the 15th spot on the full NBA roster after Darius Miller missed the entire season due to an Achilles rupture.
The Pelicans aren't far from a playoff spot. During the last 36 games before play stopped, they went 22-14, a 50-win pace over a full season. Their disappointing effort in seeding games showed they need more consistency from their young players, as well as Zion at full strength. A new coach could be the first step to getting New Orleans there.
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