How great is Zion Williamson's NBA superstar ceiling?

What has Zion Williamson's first taste of NBA action shown us about the No. 1 overall pick in last year's draft?

We're 10 games into Williamson's debut for the New Orleans Pelicans, and he has given us glimpses of his NBA potential while reminding us why he was one of the most hyped prospects in recent memory.

What does a deeper look at Williamson's performance tell us about what's in store? Insiders Mike Schmitz and Kevin Pelton break down his play and his potential.

Where has Zion been better than expected?

Kevin Pelton: After coming back from knee surgery midseason, Williamson has immediately been one of the league's better players. He's already among the top 25 in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).

For the most part, this success has been no surprise. We already knew after Zion made 77% of his 2-point attempts at Duke that he was going to be an efficient scorer around the basket (he's shooting 59% on 2s so far) and a dominant offensive rebounder. However, I think two things have been somewhat unexpected to me.

First, Williamson is a bigger part of the Pelicans' offense than expected given how well they were playing without him. Zion is finishing 31% of the team's plays while on the court with a shot, a trip to the free throw line or a turnover -- higher than his 29% usage rate at Duke. Second, Williamson's quickness is a massive advantage in terms of securing his own rebounds. Amazingly, he's grabbed the rebound on 29.5% of his own missed shots, a far better offensive rebound rate than any team has managed this season.

Mike, you've got a better perspective on Zion's prep career. What has surprised you about him in the NBA?

Mike Schmitz: We knew Zion would terrorize teams in transition as a vertical spacer, as he has developed an instant connection with lob-thrower extraordinaire Lonzo Ball. I figured Williamson would beat opponents up on the offensive glass, but I'm surprised by how effective he has been scoring the ball inside the arc -- especially in the post -- while basically not even looking at the rim from the perimeter. Even while spending the majority of his time on the floor alongside an interior-oriented center in Derrick Favors, Williamson still ranks in the 81st percentile in half-court scoring efficiency, doing his damage in the post, on the offensive glass and as a roller.

Not only is Williamson quicker to his own misses than any prospect I've evaluated, he also has done an excellent job of getting in position for early post touches, taking advantage of that oversize frame. When he does catch in the mid-post, he is dangerous with hard, low-to-the-court rip-throughs to his left, beating opposing bigs with his explosive first step.

Zion also has started to add counters to that, unleashing a powerful jab step. He will utilize spin moves if his initial rip-through drive is taken away, and he simply is able to overpower some of the league's strongest defenders. He has even gone to a short turnaround jumper at times, elevating over the top of like-sized defenders.

He has had issues finishing against elite wings and remains left-hand dominant, but he is too explosive, powerful and decisive with his moves to contain. Even without the threat of a jump shot, he has been able to go up and over retreating bigs with little resistance. His lack of a perimeter jumper can make him predictable in the half-court, and it is more glaring against elite defenses. He doesn't have many good options here:

Based on the film, he has been at his best this season operating as a 5 -- either alongside a stretch-4 such as Nicolo Melli or when Favors is spaced to the corner. Zion gravitates toward the rim and has a tendency to dive from the corners when Favors is in the paint, which hurts offensive flow. But when Favors is on the perimeter or Melli is spaced, Zion is nearly impossible to defend as a roller or driver.

The simple fact that Williamson has been so productive playing a fair amount of power forward next to a non-spacing center speaks to just how incredible of a talent he is.

Where can Zion still improve?

Pelton: I think you have to look at the defensive end of the court when we talk about areas of improvement for Zion after the All-Star break.

On top of everything that made him a special offensive player in college, Williamson also racked up steals (3.9 per 100 possessions) and blocks (5.8% of opponent 2-point attempts) at Duke. Per Sports-Reference.com, National Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle was the only other college players to reach those marks. Given that history, I'd say it's disappointing that Zion hasn't been a bigger factor yet as a help defender. He's blocked just three shots and come up with seven steals so far.

You'd expect a certain dropoff going from college to the pro game, but Thybulle's steal and block rates with the Philadelphia 76ers (3.5 and 3.6, respectively) substantially exceed Williamson's (1.2 apiece). Free throw shooting is a more predictable area for improvement (Zion is hitting 59% of his attempts thus far, down slightly from the 64% he made at Duke, a concern given how frequently he's going to go to the foul line), but hopefully his defensive effort will get better as his conditioning improves.

What are you seeing from Williamson there?

Schmitz: While part of it is working his way back into shape and being cautious with his body, his motor hasn't been what I've seen in the past. He is improving each and every game and figures to get more comfortable, but the potential defensive versatility I praised pre-draft has yet to come to fruition consistently.

You touched on his low block and steal rates, which you can see on film, as he isn't offering rim protection when he is seeing minutes at the 5. Zion shows flashes, but he isn't always a consistent force at the rim:

Williamson has been arguably worse defending away from the basket, allowing too many blow-bys and not attempting to bend his knees and sit in a stance on some possessions. He has had incredible one-on-one defensive moments, sliding with Marcus Smart or standing up Nikola Jokic in the post. Williamson also has shown an ability to chase wings around screens and deny catches when engaged. But he is too inconsistent with his energy levels right now, and he doesn't have the technique to fall back on if he isn't competing:

He also is at an early stage of development as a pick-and-roll big defender, which shouldn't come as too big of a surprise given the fact that he never played all that much high-level, structured basketball prior to college:

He doesn't have a great feel for how to contain the ball in drop coverages, as he is too worried about getting back to his own man, as opposed to corralling the guard. Williamson still is learning the tendencies of opponents, giving up easy open 3s to Kevin Love as one example. While Zion will recover for blocks, his balance and ability to change direction isn't as crisp due to his conditioning, which teams have taken advantage of by putting him in space and attacking.

Williamson is too often the last one down the floor, regularly in a casual trot. While he can go get rebounds better than most players in the NBA, he stands and watches on the defensive glass for stretches, and he isn't playing with the same type of reckless abandon we saw at Duke.

Part of this is by design, and I'm not worried about Williamson eventually feeling comfortable enough to unleash the motor that made him special in college. I would just like to see him buy in more on defense, because his versatility on that end is a big reason why I loved his fit as a modern, small-ball 5. If his defense comes around, he'll be mentioned among the league's elite sooner than later.

What is Zion's ceiling?

Pelton: The best way to build around Zion long term is to put a floor spacer next to him. That player ideally would also be a rim protector, similar to the Giannis Antetokounmpo-Brook Lopez frontcourt of the Milwaukee Bucks. For now, New Orleans seems to be splitting the difference.

Williamson has played a little more than half of his minutes next to Favors, a more traditional center even though he started at power forward in Utah. Despite spacing concerns -- Favors has made just one 3-pointer all season -- those lineups have been dominant thus far, outscoring opponents by 16.3 points per 100 possessions according to NBA Advanced Stats. Lineups with Zion and stretch big Nicolo Melli, who's not a rim protector, have been more potent offensively but less effective defensively for a plus-10.7 net rating. Intriguingly, Alvin Gentry has been reluctant to play Williamson with fellow lottery pick Jaxson Hayes, as they've logged just 11 minutes together so far.

The sample sizes on those configurations are too small to draw conclusions, but they're worth monitoring as the Pelicans figure out their long-term roster.

What's a reasonable expectation for Zion's ceiling based on what we've seen in the NBA?

Schmitz: Health permitting, I'm confident that Zion will be an MVP candidate and viewed as one of the best players in the league. For that to happen, he'll have to up his impact on the defensive end of the floor. Given his injury history and small-school background prior to the NCAA, anticipating a learning curve defensively should have been expected. Based on the motor and versatility I saw at Duke, I think he'll develop into a valuable on-ball and off-ball defender in time.

His offensive upside will be dictated by the type of shooter he can become. Developing into a league-average catch-and-shoot marksman will allow him to spend more time at the 4, while making him more devastating as a small 5 in late-game situations. Part of what makes Zion intriguing in the long term is how productive he is while still having areas to improve, such as shooting, his off-hand and fine-tuning his handle.

Zion hasn't been as effective of a facilitator so far, missing open kickouts to instead force tough shots at the rim. But as you can see here, the glimpses are starting to become more frequent:

I've always thought Williamson's playmaking ability is one of the underrated aspects of his game. As he taps more and more into that vision and has better spacing around him, I think he can develop into a shot-creator and an occasional triple-double threat down the line. Far and away the most unique prospect I've evaluated, Williamson has no ceiling if he can improve his shooting and stay healthy.

Pelton: I tend to agree. The scary thing is how good Zion has already been when he still has so much room for improvement. You hit on a lot of areas I think we'll see Williamson develop, but I would emphasize decision-making along with playmaking. Though this isn't necessarily a weakness now, it's something that tends to improve over time for most players and goes hand in hand with Zion beating any kind of defensive coverage.

It's tricky to envision peak Zion because we've never seen a player like him before. I expect broad similarities with the player Antetokounmpo has become in a very different physical frame. Given how well Williamson has started as a teenager, we can't put much of a limit on what he can achieve. Now here's hoping Zion stays healthy so we find out.