Who are the sleepers and potential second-round picks poised to make the biggest impact in the 2020 NBA draft?
Every year, important NBA contributors are found beyond the first round.
Draft experts Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz and Kevin Pelton nominate nine players who might flourish in the league despite modest expectations -- the prospects who could outplay some of the players picked before them.
Along with our nine scouting reports, we've included Pelton's stats-only draft projections.
Best available: Our ranking of the top 100 NBA draft prospects
Udoka Azubuike | C | Kansas
Potential role: Rim-protecting, vertical-spacing center
Why he fits: The Big 12 Player of the Year, NABC Defensive Player of the Year and first-team All-American was having a spectacular season as the anchor of the No. 1 team in college basketball before the coronavirus pandemic hit.
After an injury-plagued junior season, Azubuike emerged as arguably the most impactful two-way collegiate player. His 270-pound frame, 7-foot-8 wingspan and 9-foot-4 standing reach are elite dimensions among NBA prospects. He significantly improved his ability to defend pick-and-rolls this season, hedging and even switching ball screens while ranking statistically as the best shot-blocker in the draft.
Though he's lauded for his defense, Azubuike's 74% field goal shooting will be the highest mark of any draft pick in NCAA history come Oct. 16. He offers an interior presence to creative teams that want to buck the small-ball movement and force opponents to adjust on a nightly basis.
Key stat: 74% 2-point percentage
Drawbacks: Azubuike likely would have been a lottery pick 10 years ago. Since then, the NBA has moved away from big men in his mold, who now project mostly as drop defenders in pick-and-roll coverages. And doubts among NBA teams about Azubuike's listed age (20) persist.
Azubuike is a career 41% shooter from the free throw line, making him vulnerable to "hack-a-Doke" strategies in late-game situations. His playmaking ability improved while at Kansas, but he still ranks among the worst in the draft in several passing metrics. -- Jonathan Givony
Pelton projections: 0.7 WARP (34th)
Xavier Tillman | C | Michigan State
Potential role: Fills-in-the-blanks center
Why he fits: Tillman was one of the most productive college players over the past two seasons, helping Michigan State win 77% of its games in that span and back-to-back Big Ten regular-season titles.
His defensive versatility -- he is as impactful switching onto the perimeter as he is protecting the rim, thanks to his terrific timing and smarts -- earned him Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year honors.
Though he's less accomplished on the other end, Tillman is an excellent passer who finishes well around the basket and sets bruising screens that keep the offense flowing. He is a smart, high-energy player who looks ready to step into an NBA lineup as a role player.
Key stat: 11.5 BPM (No. 2 in NCAA after Obi Toppin)
Drawbacks: Tillman isn't very tall (6-8) or long (reported 7-1 wingspan) for a center, and he lacks explosiveness, which might become more pronounced against bigger and more athletic big men in the NBA.
He has begun to expand his range beyond the arc over the past two seasons, but still made only 21 of 77 3-pointers in college and hit less than 70% of his free throws.
Before a draft full of big men aspiring to play in a league that decreasingly values traditional bigs, Tillman is still testing the waters. According to sources, Tillman might return to Michigan State if he isn't assured at least a two-year guaranteed contract, something that might be difficult for teams to promise by the Aug. 3 NCAA withdrawal deadline, given the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming offseason. -- Givony
Pelton projections: 0.8 WARP (29th)
Kenyon Martin Jr. | SF/PF | IMG Academy Post-Grad
Potential role: Versatile combo forward
Why he fits: Martin's exceptional speed, power and explosiveness make him arguably the best athlete in the draft. He has unique fluidity and body control attacking the rim in the open court, and the quickness with which he gets off his feet to make plays on both ends of the floor puts him in a rare class of players, even by NBA standards.
At his best, Martin is an impactful defender who covers a lot of ground, stays in front of guards and can put a body on big men. He demonstrates excellent timing when getting in passing lanes or rotating to protect the rim, as evidenced by the 1.5 steals and 1.1 blocks per game.
Martin is also ambidextrous, shooting the ball with his right hand but comfortable dribbling, passing, finishing and blocking shots with his left. He's an unselfish player, helping his team's ball movement with intelligent passes in transition or by making the extra pass along the perimeter.
Martin's skill level and productivity improved considerably over the past year, and the 19-year-old still has plenty of upside to grow into long term.
Key stat: 0.13 3PA-FGA rate (51-of-390)
Drawbacks: Martin is more long-term prospect than ready-made role player. With no summer league, a shortened offseason for player development and question marks about what the G League will look like next season, there is a school of thought that NBA teams will look to more proven and experienced players in the second round this year, which could hurt Martin's chances to be drafted.
He has played most of his career at power forward, but without the ideal height or length for the position, standing short of 6-7 with a similar wingspan. There are questions about how he will score in the half court, as he's not a consistent 3-point shooter or a high-volume isolation or pick-and-roll player. Martin will need to iron out his shooting mechanics, both in catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble situations. While he hit 35% of his 3-point attempts this season, he did so on a low volume, taking 7.5 times as many 2-pointers and converting just 67% of his free throw attempts.
Martin didn't play against the highest level of competition this season and wasn't highly exposed to NBA scouts, making him one of the most vulnerable prospects to a severely limited pre-draft process. -- Givony
Pelton projections: N/A
Payton Pritchard | PG | Oregon
Potential role: Versatile point guard
Why he fits: One of the most accomplished guards in the draft, Pritchard's shooting range, toughness and maturity should get him on the floor early in his career. While he shouldered a heavy load for the Ducks and can score at all three levels in pick-and-roll, his value as a spot shooter makes him intriguing in multiguard lineups. Pritchard moves well off the ball, has excellent shot preparation and is an efficient catch-and-shoot marksman. He's a pull-up threat once he crosses half court. He's also a greatly improved finisher with all the veteran tricks.
Excerpt from my film session with Oregon guard Payton Pritchard. Stay tuned for the full breakdown as we get closer to the draft. Pritchard has the clutch gene. pic.twitter.com/HoRjrnqxnt
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) April 21, 2020
On defense, Pritchard is hard-nosed and sturdy enough to hold his own, even with teams likely to seek him out as a rookie. The 22-year-old senior shows similarities to Toronto's Fred VanVleet as a tough, ground-bound guard with the knack for timely shots. Jalen Brunson is another name that comes to mind when evaluating Pritchard. Like VanVleet has done alongside Kyle Lowry and Brunson to a lesser degree next to Luka Doncic, I'd expect Pritchard to emerge as an under-drafted overachiever who can fit next to another accomplished guard on a playoff team.
Key stat: Career 38% 3-point shooter on 759 attempts
Drawbacks: Pritchard isn't the shiftiest shot creator, a run-and-jump athlete or very big, at 6-2 with a 6-4 wingspan. The fact that he can pull up from 30 feet will open up opportunities, but creating efficient offense early in his career will be challenging. He's also more of a scorer than a playmaker at this stage.
His critics will also question whether he can keep up with the NBA's elite point guards defensively, but I think he'll ultimately be an asset on that end of the floor. -- Mike Schmitz
Pelton projections: 0.8 WARP (33rd)
Desmond Bane | SG | TCU
Potential role: 3-and-D guard
Why he fits: Bane brings spot shooting, range, court vision and defensive toughness with all the makings of a plug-and-play contributor for a playoff team. At 6-6, 215 pounds with a 6-4 wingspan, Bane compares to Brooklyn's Joe Harris physically. He's not as dynamic a shooter as Harris while sprinting off screens, but hitting 43% from 3-point land on 574 career attempts speaks for itself.
Bane moves the ball intelligently out of quick actions and is comfortable facilitating from the pick-and-roll once he gets downhill to his right. Bane is one of only three players in our top 100 who averaged at least 2.5 made 3s and 3.5 assists per game, along with Pritchard and Sam Merrill.
As a defender, Bane is smart, active off the ball, a good positional rebounder and strong enough to body up more physical guards and wings.
On top of his improvement rate, production and experience from starting 117 of 145 games at TCU, Bane is regularly praised for his character and approach to the game.
Really enjoyed chatting with TCU's Desmond Bane this afternoon for another ESPN Film Session. Impressive story from a high school graduating class of 20 people to having only one high major offer to now looking like a potential draft-day steal given his size, shooting + IQ. pic.twitter.com/nOEvnqtW4b
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) April 23, 2020
Drawbacks: Bane isn't the most fluid or explosive athlete and lacks a degree of flexibility both with the ball on offense and when defending the perimeter. He struggles to finish around the rim in traffic, evidenced by his 45% 2-point percentage and extremely low free throw rate. Although he has a soft touch on floaters, Bane lacks deception when faced with size and length in the paint. -- Schmitz
Pelton projections: 0.8 WARP (30th)
Skylar Mays | PG/SG | LSU
Potential role: Two-way combo guard
Why he fits: Mays, 22, has the makings of a rookie contributor thanks to his stellar on-ball defense and versatile offensive game.
At 6-4, 205 pounds with a 6-6 wingspan, Mays uses his quick feet, strong base, understanding of player tendencies and high motor to make an impact. He ranks in the top 10 in steal percentage among our prospect list, and his ability to defend either backcourt spot and make open 3s suits him for an Avery Bradley-type role, at least early in his career.
Mays spent most of his LSU career playing off more ball-dominant players like Tremont Waters and Antonio Blakeney, and that's likely the role he'll fill as a rookie. He doesn't have the most fluid mechanics, but he's more than capable from 3 with his feet set, and he is a powerful downhill driver, an active cutter and a smart ball-mover to boot.
Mays diversified his game as a senior, looking more like a mini Malcolm Brogdon than a 3-and-D off guard, which gives him greater upside than most players in his mold. Mays was the most efficient ball-screen scorer among all players who used more than 100 pick-and-roll possessions, thanks to his improved pull-up game and ability to get downhill, regularly unleashing violent spin moves in traffic. Mays plays longer than his measurements suggest and has the type of stop-and-start game that has made Brogdon effective.
Mays has long strides to the rim and is an excellent finisher for his size, extending the ball in traffic and not shying away from contact while surprising defenders with a few poster dunks.
Skylar Mays: "I think there's a high level of appreciation for guys that want to play their role and want to win and want to work to expand their role once they get established." Great message for young players. Really enjoyed today's ESPN Film Session with the LSU senior guard. pic.twitter.com/PEMviimY8l
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) May 11, 2020
Mays could fit perfectly next to big playmakers like James Harden or Luka Doncic, defend point guards, make open shots and play second-side pick-and-roll. Recruited out of high school as a point guard, the native of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, is a more-than-capable passer, praised for his intangibles and veteran mindset.
Drawbacks: While his defense will get him on the floor, Mays is still working to develop an elite skill offensively. He finished his career at 34.5% from distance and isn't all that dynamic with his jumper. Scouts will question whether he's an accurate-enough shooter to consistently add value off the ball and if he's special enough in pick-and-rolls to warrant heavy point guard reps. -- Schmitz
Pelton projections: 0.3 WARP (44th)
Isaiah Joe | SG | Arkansas
Potential role: Floor spacer
Why he fits: Despite shooting only 34% from 3-point range as a sophomore, Joe is a pure shooter who hit 41% of his 3s as a freshman and 89% of his free throws last season. Add in the high volume -- Joe attempted 10.6 3-pointers per game in 2019-20 -- and all indications point to him being an elite pro shooter with more versatility than the typical specialist.
Key stat: 94 3-pointers (led SEC)
Drawbacks: Joe figures to struggle inside the arc, having made just 43% of his limited 2-point attempts in two seasons at Arkansas. He's also a below-average rebounder and playmaker for an off guard, suggesting he'll need to be an elite shooter to stay on the court. -- Kevin Pelton
Pelton projections: 1.5 WARP (15th)
Markus Howard | PG | Marquette
Potential role: Instant offense off the bench
Why he fits: The nation's leading scorer as a senior, at 27.8 points per game, Howard's prolific long-range shooting combined volume with efficiency. Howard attempted 10.1 3-pointers per game last season, making them at a 41% clip. He finished his career seventh in Division I history with 434 triples despite not getting a postseason as a senior.
Key stat: No. 2 in Division I for 3-pointers made (121)
Drawbacks: Listed at 5-11, Howard will have to defend point guards in the NBA but lacks the instincts of a playmaker. Howard peaked at 4.7 assists per 40 minutes as a junior and is really more a score-first player. He'll have to be super-efficient from the perimeter to overcome his limitations defensively and as a finisher.
Still, there's a template here in Patty Mills, who also topped out at 4.7 assists per 40 minutes at Saint Mary's before entering the NBA draft as a sophomore. It took a few years for Mills to find the right fit, but he's been one of the league's best reserve guards since joining the Spurs, who typically play him alongside a bigger ball handler. -- Pelton
Pelton projections: 0.9 WARP (27th)
Trevelin Queen | SG/SF | New Mexico State
Potential role: Energy reserve
Why he fits: Steal and block rates have historically been predictive for draft prospects, and Queen has one of the best combos of any player in this year's class. His 3.9 steals per 100 possessions was outstanding for a wing, and Queen was a prolific shot-blocker as a junior (6.2% of opponent 2-point attempts).
Compared to DePaul's Paul Reed, who has received more attention for his defensive stats, Queen has a clearer offensive role as a 3-and-D player. He hit 39% of his 3-point attempts last season while making an even 2.0 per game.
Key stat: 3.9 steals per 100 possessions
Drawbacks: Queen lacks high-level basketball experience after missing a season of high school as a transfer, subsequently playing two years in the junior college ranks. He was lightly recruited before landing in the WAC, and at 23, Queen is on the older side for a prospect, though his statistical projections remain strong. -- Pelton
Pelton projections: 1.3 WARP (19th)