NBA draft stock watch: Rising first-round picks and breakthrough prospects

This is a make-or-break week for college teams and NBA prospects alike, with the biggest conference tournaments and the NCAA primed to decide who advances to the big stage.

Leading up to this week and Selection Sunday, ESPN draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have been watching some of the potential draft sleepers and risers to find the next set of breakthrough prospects.

Here are eight names to watch, from lottery picks to players who might crash the first round.

More: Top 100 NBA draft rankings

Precious Achiuwa | PF/C | Memphis | No. 13

Entering the season as a projected top-10 pick, Achiuwa had a difficult time finding his footing early on, looking far too sped up on both ends of the floor and showing a concerning lack of skill and feel.

At 10-8, his Memphis team likely lost too many conference games to secure an at-large NCAA tournament bid, but since his slow start, Achiuwa has more than done his part, making a strong case for AAC player of the year honors with an incredibly productive campaign.

Achiuwa is far from a perfect player, but he's one of the most gifted physical specimens in this draft class with his freakish athleticism, 9-foot-1 standing reach and NBA-ready frame, and he has shown enough improvement as a shooter, passer, ball handler and defender to leave considerable optimism for how he'll continue to evolve in the NBA.

Fancying himself as more of a finesse, perimeter-oriented player in the past, Achiuwa has done a nice job buying into a role at Memphis as a modern big man who does the dirty work dominating the glass on both ends, finishing plays created for him by his guards, sprinting the floor with urgency and using his tools to make a considerable impact defensively.

Very difficult to score on in one-on-one situations, Achiuwa has unlimited potential on that end of the floor, as he can switch onto guards, cover ground seamlessly while rotating to protect the rim, contest shots on the perimeter and put a body on opposing big men, having ample size and strength to guard almost any center. This versatility is highly intriguing in today's NBA, as there's a chance he could develop into the type of defender a team can put onto stars like LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo or James Harden.

His focus still fluctuates at times, and he can be very naive biting on shot fakes, getting lost off the ball and standing around a little more than you might hope, but he has improved considerably in this area as the season has moved on.

His hands, timing and overall feel for the game are still a work in progress, but the flashes he shows pushing the ball off the defensive glass, creating in a pinch in a straight line, throwing in spot-up 3-pointers and finishing off two feet explosively from outside the paint are extremely impressive. More modern than almost any of the other bigs currently projected to be picked in the first round, Achiuwa could still work his way back into the top 10 with a strong pre-draft process and looks like a lock to be picked in the top 20. -- Givony

Jahmi'Us Ramsey | SG | Texas Tech | No. 18

The Red Raiders, NCAA championship finalists last year, are on the NCAA tournament bubble after losing five of their past seven games. They might require heroics from Ramsey, the Big 12 freshman of the year, in the conference tournament this week.

Ramsey has had an up-and-down freshman campaign, missing nearly a month of action with a hamstring injury and fluctuating between monster 25-point performances and going scoreless just a few days later. He has one of the more confusing statistical profiles in the draft; on one hand, he is shooting 43% on 3s, but he is also making just 45% of his 2-pointers and 64% of his free throws. His nearly 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio is hardly ideal for a guard.

But he doesn't turn 19 until 11 days before the draft, and he has been forced into an outsized role on an undersized Tech team with very little outside shooting or alternative shot-creation options.

The appeal of Ramsey is readily apparent -- he stands 6-foot-4 with a strong frame, solid athletic ability and terrific scoring instincts. There's a huge market for players in his mold in today's NBA -- an isolation scorer who can bully weaker guards. He shows terrific shot-making prowess from all over the floor thanks to his excellent mechanics pulling up off the dribble and unlimited confidence.

His feel for the game and shot selection leave a lot to be desired, especially given his affinity for taking contested long 2-pointers early in the clock. He shows flashes of playmaking as well as simple extra passes along the perimeter or in drive-and-dish situations, but he has a long way to go with his overall decision-making, as he can be single-minded with his approach and doesn't always seem to recognize time/score/situation. Defensively, he's fairly solid when focused and engaged, but he shows inexperience, getting lost off the ball more frequently than you'd like.

Workouts and background intelligence will likely play a big role in where Ramsey ends up in the draft, should he decide to enter, as well as how he closes out the season in the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments. -- Givony

Kira Lewis Jr. | PG | Alabama | No. 25

Electing to skip his senior year of high school and enroll early at Alabama, Lewis had an understandably steep transition from high school to college last season, but he still made the SEC All-Rookie team.

After the coach who recruited him, Avery Johnson, was fired last summer, Lewis contemplated leaving but ultimately decided to return for his sophomore season, eventually blossoming into one of the best point guards in the college game and a potential first-round pick. The soft-spoken Lewis was forced to step outside his comfort zone for a young Alabama team that had relatively little SEC-caliber talent on the roster alongside him, which has led to big games but also some inefficient performances on a team that will likely be hoping for an NIT invite barring an improbable SEC tournament run.

Slight of frame, measuring just 6-foot-2 and 162 pounds this past summer, Lewis isn't impressive at first glance, but he is one of the fastest end-to-end players in the college game, getting virtually anywhere he wants on the court thanks to his electric first step, ability to change gears effortlessly and slippery body control operating out of a ball screen. His lack of strength makes it difficult for him to absorb contact, finish in traffic and get to the free throw line, but the fact that he has yet to turn 19 gives some hope that his body will fill out in time.

While his decision-making leaves something to be desired, Lewis is an unselfish player who can execute skip passes creatively off a live dribble with either hand. He made a big jump with his playmaking skills this season despite not having much to work with around him. His has made strides with his jumper as well, hitting 48% of his 3-pointers over the past 10 games, many of those difficult pull-ups from well beyond the arc as defenses have thrown everything at him. Highly instinctual when jumping passing lanes and blocking 3-pointers on the perimeter, Lewis shows flashes defensively even if his lack of bulk makes it easy for bigger guards to take advantage of him.

Lewis has done a nice job of making his case among a crowded field of point guards and should start to get looks from teams picking in the mid to late part of the first round, even if the huge glut of guards in his draft range will make it important for him to perform well during the pre-draft process. The fact that he's younger than almost all of the freshmen in this class, such as Nico Mannion, RJ Hampton and Cole Anthony, bodes well for his long-term projection. -- Givony

Jalen Smith | PF/C | Maryland | No. 30

A top-20 recruit and McDonald's All-American out of high school, the 6-10 Smith has made a big jump from his freshman to sophomore season in College Park, improving his 3-point clip 10 percentage points to 36.8% while also upping his rim protection and defensive rebounding numbers significantly on the Big Ten's top team. After playing most of his minutes alongside an interior-oriented center in Bruno Fernando last season, shifting to the 5 has opened the game up for Smith while also helping to mask some of his shortcomings as a facilitator.

Smith has been the beneficiary of having more space to attack slower-footed defenders from the perimeter or mid-post with his improved ball handling and sharp footwork, while also dragging them out to the 3-point line with his clean shooting stroke. That improved jumper is a huge reason for Smith's intrigue, and rightfully so as he's well-balanced with repeatable mechanics and soft overall touch. He can attack closeouts when he's run off of his spots in either direction before striding it out to the rim into right- or left-hand finishes.

The next step in Smith's evolution is his passing, as he has over twice as many turnovers as assists so far this season. But it's not easy to find bigs who can pop, score in the mid-post and add value as a roller and vertical spacer. Smith finishes over 67% of his shots at the rim in the half court thanks to his length and ability to elevate in space. He does get knocked off spots in a crowd, but he figures to look even more effective as a finisher on a spaced NBA floor.

Defensively, Smith, nicknamed "Sticks," is playing with a slightly increased level of toughness, having to face accomplished Big Ten centers like Xavier Tillman, Luka Garza, Kaleb Wesson, Jon Teske and Daniel Oturu on a weekly basis. There are no nights off for bigs in that conference, and Smith has done a nice job of weathering the storm, even if he still gets buried in the post thanks to his light lower body.

He has shown the ability to rotate from the weak side for blocks with solid timing while also altering a lot of shots with either hand in 1-on-1 situations. There will be questions about whether he can hold up at the 5 for long stretches in the NBA, as that's his most advantageous position, but through 30 collegiate games, so far so good, and his improved shooting should allow him to exist in double-big lineups for more traditional teams.

Moving somewhat similarly to a smaller Myles Turner mechanically, Smith does have a little hitch in his giddy-up that shows up when asked to cover ground quickly on the defensive end. He's a bit upright as a pick-and-roll defender at times, but it's almost more of an aesthetics issue than anything, as he has shown promise in switch situations against point guards like Cassius Winston. He's not overly quick getting back to popping bigs out of drop situations, but his 7-2 wingspan helps him cover up some of those limitations, and he's fairly effective defending the perimeter at the collegiate level.

The 19-year-old is one of only three players in the NCAA with more than 70 blocked shots and 30 made 3s. His improvement deserves more attention from NBA scouts, and Smith is the type of modern big who could work his way up draft boards with stellar play in the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments. -- Schmitz

Udoka Azubuike | C | Kansas | No. 32

The newly minted Big 12 player of the year, Azubuike has established himself as a contender for national player of the year honors as well -- the best and most important player on the top team in college basketball.

Azubuike's junior year was derailed by a torn hand ligament that allowed him to play only nine games. He entered the draft for the second straight year but once again withdrew after drawing less interest than hoped. Then he spent the offseason getting into the best shape of his career.

He has been incredibly productive as a rebounder and finisher, as usual, but the other reason he's knocking on the door of the first round of the draft is that he has made significant strides on the defensive end as the anchor of a Kansas defense that currently ranks No. 2 in the country, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index.

Entering this season, Azubuike was strictly a drop defender in pick-and-roll situations who would typically get carved up any time he stepped outside of the paint due to his heavy feet and below average feel for the game. His improved conditioning and significantly higher intensity level, along with his experience, have allowed him to emerge as arguably the most impactful defensive big man in college basketball, a complete wrecking ball in the paint with his shredded 270-pound frame and outrageous 7-foot-8 wingspan and 9-foot-4 standing reach.

This season he has hedged and even switched ball screens, keeping smaller players in front and making himself incredibly difficult to shoot over. His ridiculous length allows him to block shots from incredible vantage points, both on the perimeter and inside the paint, and with either hand (his 3.8 blocks per 40 minutes ranks No. 1 among ESPN Top 100 prospects). There are very few big men on the planet with Azubuike's dimensions, and the fact that he now covers ground adequately, contains drives and is virtually impossible to post up in the lane has added quite a bit of intrigue. In the NBA, he could have a huge physical advantage on a nightly basis with his unbelievable measurements.

Azubuike is a game-changer on offense as well, as he's extremely quick and powerful elevating off two feet and has shown significantly improved hands, timing and instincts as a finisher. Kansas' offense revolves heavily around getting him deep paint touches as a roller or post-up threat, as just throwing the ball in his vicinity has a high likelihood of resulting in a dunk. He's shooting 74% from the field due to his interior dominance and also posting a career high in assists.

Some NBA teams have had questions about Azubuike's listed age (20) and fit in the modern game, as well as his 44% free throw shooting and inconsistent approach, which has led to some friction between him and Kansas' coaching staff. But his freakish physical tools, dominance at the college level and improvements on both ends of the floor suggest he'll have a role in the NBA. A dominant NCAA tournament showing could move him firmly into the first round, possibly even the top 20 for a franchise that wants to buck the small-ball movement and force opposing teams to adjust to him on a nightly basis. -- Givony

Tyler Bey | Forward | Colorado | No. 35

I went from the Mountain West tournament in Las Vegas to Salt Lake City to get a live look at Colorado and junior forward Tyler Bey as the Buffs took on Utah. While Bey has had a similar season to last year's statistically, he could emerge as a popular early second-round sleeper pick should he opt to keep his name in the draft thanks to his combination of physical tools, energy, defensive versatility and flashes of shooting potential.

Functioning as a 4/5 for Colorado, Bey figures to thrive as a defense-oriented combo forward who can have an impact because of his motor, run-and-jump athleticism and ability to guard multiple positions at the next level. The Vegas native offers the type of multipositional defense teams covet, as he's comfortable sliding on the perimeter with guards, containing big wings, and even rotating from the weak side for blocks (1.5 per 40 minutes) and steals (2.1 per 40 minutes). He vacuums rebounds outside of his area (career 12.9 per 40 minutes) and has a nose for the ball at 6-7 with wide shoulders and a 7-0 wingspan. While he's narrow-hipped and not the most physical player, toss him in an NBA game tomorrow and he'd surely fit in.

Bey also has some offensive potential to tap into, as he shoots a fairly clean ball from the perimeter despite some off-hand involvement. Although it's a small sample, Bey has knocked down 13 of 40 3-pointers in 30 games this season, and he is a career 74.7% from the free throw line on 388 attempts.

He's not a polished ball handler, consistently accurate passer or finesse shot creator inside the arc, but the fact that he's shown shooting touch bodes well for a potential 3-and-D combo forward role with the willingness to also play bigger for small-ball teams.

Bey is the type of prospect who could really shine in an NBA combine setting with his leaping, motor and ability to have an impact without needing the ball in his hands. Should Bey turn heads at the Pac-12 tournament and help lead Colorado into the NCAA tournament, it wouldn't surprise me if he generated late-first-round interest, as it's not easy to find players in his mold. -- Schmitz

Payton Pritchard | PG | Oregon | No. 52

Pritchard is a national player of the year candidate, and it's time for NBA scouts to think long and hard about him as a first-round sleeper come June, even at age 22. The 6-2 Pritchard is the only player in the country averaging at least 20 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists while shooting over 50% from the field and 40% from 3, and he's doing so on a 24-7 Oregon team that's first in the Pac-12.

If there was a 4-point line, Pritchard would lead the nation in scoring. He's looked comfortable pulling up from well beyond 30 feet several times per game, even using crossover step-backs going left to get into his jumper. While he certainly benefits from having the green light, Pritchard has developed into one of the best shooters in America, and he's in the middle of a heater, shooting 49% from 3 on nine attempts per game over his past five games.

The fact that he can shoot off the catch allows him to exist in multiguard lineups, and his improved pull-up has opened up his dribble-drive game. Because he's a threat to step back into 3s from the parking lot, defenders are pressing up on Pritchard, and he's done a great job of changing speeds with his strong handle and sharp footwork to get into the paint. Not a leaper by any means, he has a lot of tricks around the rim, neutralizing shot-blockers with slow-down finishes or same-foot, same-hand attempts. While he'd benefit from adding a floater, he has the strength to absorb contact and is far more than just a deep threat.

The next step for Pritchard is to become a more reliable ball-screen playmaker, as he's mostly restricted to basic drop-off and kick-out reads right now. He's hungrier to score than facilitate and tends to kill his dribble in the paint too often, as he's not the shiftiest ball handler. But Pritchard has squeezed every ounce out of his athletic profile, and he's the type of maniacal, tireless worker to improve his floor game in time.

Defensively, he's likely to get nitpicked as he's not overly long and shoulders a big offensive load, but Pritchard is sturdy-framed and competitive with good instincts. He doesn't back down from a challenge and holds a level of toughness most overachievers in his mold possess. On top of all that, Pritchard has the type of confidence and killer instinct teams will want to bet on, as he's single-handedly won game after game for Oregon during his collegiate career.

He has improved every season, is one of the best players in college basketball and could ultimately turn out to be a more successful NBA player than several of the lead guards ranked ahead of him. He's built for March, and I'd expect Pritchard to win over front offices that haven't bought in yet with his play in the Pac-12 and NCAA tournaments. -- Schmitz

Sam Merrill | PG/SG | Utah State | NR

With a large contingent of scouts -- including multiple NBA general managers -- in Vegas for the Mountain West Conference tournament, Merrill, 24, made his case as the next collegiate senior to sneak his way into the NBA and have an immediate impact.

The 6-5 Utah State combo guard averaged 27.6 points over the course of three games, capped by a winning 30-foot jumper with just over four seconds left to knock off San Diego State in the title game, handing the Aztecs their second loss of the season. Not only did Merrill splash tough jumper after tough jumper from all over the floor, he put the clamps on potential draft pick and conference player of the year Malachi Flynn, limiting the 6-2 guard to a 6-for-20 performance, partially answering questions about how Merrill will survive defensively in the NBA.

Even before Merrill's championship performance, scouts and executives half-jokingly deemed him the Luka Doncic of the Mountain West for his step-back 3s, cerebral game and ability to get to all of his spots by way of deception, forceful change of direction and strength. Although clearly not in the same stratosphere as the 6-8 Doncic, Merrill did show that same type of clutch gene as a primary shot creator against both SDSU and New Mexico early in the tournament, never getting rattled or sped up, playing at his own pace and drilling a handful of off-the-dribble 3s from well beyond NBA distance. While not the most creative live-dribble passer, he's more than capable of running the show for stretches, seeing over the top of the defense and making the right read, especially with teams having to fight over ball screens because of his shooting.

With short arms, an undefined frame and less than stellar run-and-jump athleticism, Merrill will still have some skeptics in NBA circles. He has had some trouble containing more explosive perimeter players over his career, he doesn't always turn the corner against long athletes, he's not the most reliable finisher in traffic, and it remains to be seen whether an NBA team would give him the same type of on-ball freedom he receives at Utah State. He'll also already be 25 by draft night. For reference, since 2000, only two players age 25 or older have been drafted -- Florida State's Bernard James and Auburn's Mamadou Ndiaye.

Whether or not Merrill gets drafted, we're in an era when some teams are looking for players more than prospects. They aren't quite as excited to spend years and resources to develop raw prospects only for another franchise to eventually reap the benefits. Thanks to his size, shooting, IQ and ability to function on and off the ball, Merrill could step into an NBA game tomorrow and have an impact. He's the exact type of veteran shotmaker built to help the Aggies in a deep tournament run, likely turning even more doubters into believers in the process. -- Schmitz