Why Isaac Okoro might be a top-five NBA draft pick

Isaac Okoro has risen faster than anyone else in this NBA draft year. Not regarded as a potential lottery pick coming into the college season, the 6-foot-6 freshman forward has led Auburn to a 24-6 record with strong defense and smart playmaking.

Could Okoro be a top-10, perhaps a top-five pick in June's draft?

ESPN draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz explore that question, look at previous sleepers turned NBA stars and project both what Okoro can do at an elite level in the NBA and what he needs to do better to impress NBA teams.

MORE: Top 100 NBA draft rankings

What do NBA people think about Okoro's draft range? Is everyone on board with him being a top-five or top-10 pick?

Some boots-on-the-ground scouts have been telling me since early January that they think Okoro will end up being a top-five pick.

More cautious NBA people have been slower to warm up to Okoro, saying he's a guy you pick in the 10-14 range because of the complementary nature of his offensive game and the fact that he might never end up being much of a shooter.

Okoro leapt into the top half of the first round immediately after we saw him twice at the Barclays Center in late November, and he has gradually risen since, now finding himself at No. 4 on the ESPN 100. He's a likely top-10 pick if he enters the draft. (Auburn is reportedly trying hard to convince him to stay.)

He's one of the best defenders in the college game, and the flashes he shows as a passer give him the upside to eventually emerge as a star. Strong showings in the SEC and NCAA tournaments would only solidify his standing. -- Givony

What makes Okoro so intriguing?

Okoro's initial value comes on the defensive end, where he can shift seamlessly between the 1 and the 4 at 6-6, 225 pounds, with a sturdy frame and tree-trunk legs. We've seen him stand up power forwards such as 6-9 Trendon Watford in the post and stay in front of speedy point guards such as Kira Lewis Jr. with relative ease.

He's quick-footed, hard-playing and technically sound with the mentality to develop into an All-NBA defender and defensive player of the year candidate. It's not just on the ball that he does his damage -- he's alert away from the action, regularly rotating from the weak side with perfect verticality technique. He does a great job with weak-side tags and recovers for steals thanks to his quickness and anticipation. On top of that, he's a sound positional rebounder, and it's no surprise that Auburn went 1-2 with its Swiss Army knife out of the lineup, as he brings a winning DNA to the Tigers.

But Okoro isn't a one-sided player. His versatility shines on the offensive end also. Bruce Pearl moves him all over the floor, from the dunker spot to the high post against zones, down to the block, and even up to the lead guard spot on occasion. The 19-year-old finds the gaps in the defense, moves the ball, crashes the offensive glass, and puts pressure on the rim with powerful strides and explosive leaping ability that help him finish at a high level (64.1%). He's already a star in his role, and the fact that he doesn't need the ball to have an impact is part of what makes him so intriguing to teams like Atlanta and Cleveland that have shot-generators.

What gives me hope that Okoro can make the leap from star role player to franchise centerpiece is his ability to handle and pass. Since we saw him at USA Basketball in 2017 as a 16-year-old, we knew Okoro was an incredible athlete who played with toughness. But he has far surpassed expectations with the ball in his hands, playing pick-and-roll and showing sharp footwork, a fair amount of shift for his size, and the ability to think the game at a high level. He delivers passes with either hand on the move and has vision that far surpasses his passing metrics.

This is why the Jimmy Butler comparison -- which I first heard from Jonathan early in the season -- holds some weight. Okoro can follow a similar path as a tough-minded defender who evolves into a shot creator. It wouldn't surprise me if we're talking a few years from now about Okoro as the best player from this draft. -- Schmitz

How often do we see players who aren't prolific scorers become lottery picks in the same year?

Not often. In my database, I found eight lottery picks in the past 20 years who had averaged fewer than 16.5 points per 40 minutes in their draft year and stood 6-9 or under (so this doesn't include big men). In order, they are Andre Iguodala, Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, Mike Conley Jr., Russell Westbrook, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Michael Carter-Williams, Aaron Gordon and Zach LaVine. Probably part of the reason is that players who score less infrequently typically stay in school (which Okoro might do). It's worth noting that five of the eight were drafted after Final Four runs: Williams, Felton, Conley, MKG and Westbrook.

I also looked at players who stayed in school and blossomed into very high draft picks. That lists includes Butler, Kyle Lowry, Jrue Holiday, Kawhi Leonard, Victor Oladipo, Donovan Mitchell and several other stars. In fact, nine of the NBA's top 20 scorers who played college ball once averaged fewer 16.5 points per 40 minutes in a college season.

So, a team might draft Okoro early thinking that he's likewise a player with huge upside who would eventually be a high draft pick anyway. -- Givony

What does Okoro need to improve to justify being a top-10 pick?

I think he has shown enough, but he'll want to convince scouts he can shoot the ball and score. He has made only 11-of-45 catch-and-shoot jumpers, according to Synergy Sports, which is cause for concern. The tournament and pre-draft process will be key opportunities for Okoro to answer questions about his shooting and scoring instincts. -- Schmitz

How much of Okoro's rise is due to the fact that other players didn't quite emerge?

His lofty ranking certainly has something to do with that. Several players -- including Cole Anthony, Jaden McDaniels, RJ Hampton, Theo Maledon, Nico Mannion and Scottie Lewis -- saw their stock fall due to injuries or underwhelming seasons.

In this draft, it would make sense for an NBA team to take a versatile wing who can pass and defend several positions -- one of the hardest things to find.

While I believe Okoro could ultimately become a star, even if he becomes just a fourth or fifth option, he could still have great value as a role player like Gary Harris or Josh Richardson. -- Givony

How likely is it that players like Okoro end up becoming good enough shooters? Are there other cases of players who did that?

When you really like a prospect, you convince yourself he'll surely learn how to shoot. When you're skeptical, you consider the lack of shooting a major red flag.

Projecting which players will develop as shooters is an inexact science. As ESPN's Kevin Pelton would tell you, free throw percentage is an indicator of future 3-point shooting -- examples include Butler (77% at Marquette) and Kawhi Leonard (75% at San Diego State). I also like to look at touch in the paint, particularly on floaters, as an indicator.

But why is it that Butler, who didn't make a 3-pointer in 687 minutes his first year at Marquette, can develop as a shooter, but Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, a heralded worker who made 75% of his free throws at Kentucky, couldn't?

That's where the eye test can help, such as seeing prospects in person and watching their warm-ups, when they often get up 50 or more shots.

MKG's mechanics were a bearish indicator for his jumper. As another example, Ben Simmons' warm-ups at LSU gave signs that he was a reluctant shooter with so-so mechanics.

On the flipside, Leonard was a noted worker who was effective in midrange spots at SDSU. Landing with Chip Engelland and the Spurs didn't hurt, either.

Butler is known as a maniacal worker. Likewise, Donovan Mitchell, who shot 25% from 3 as a freshman at Louisville and was more of an energy defender in high school, is known for his approach to the game. Watching him knock down shot after shot with picturesque mechanics during the pre-draft process and voluntarily run sprints afterward told me all I needed to know.

That brings us back to Okoro, who has made only 19-of-68 3s (27.9%) in 27 games. On top of that, he's shooting just 66.2% from the free throw line. But what gives me hope is the fact that he's still shooting 2.5 3s per game rather than turning down open corner 3s as often as he did in settings prior to Auburn. He also has knocked down three off-the-dribble triples, one of the step-back variety.

While he shoots it off of his palm a little bit with a somewhat flat trajectory, he doesn't have any off-hand involvement and his mechanics are fairly sound. Most importantly, he's known for his work ethic and approach to the game. He has an even, focused personality, he improves every year, and I'd bet on Okoro figuring out the shooting piece just like we've seen from Butler, Leonard and guys before him.

He's far from a perfect prospect, but Okoro has a lot of ingredients that are hard to teach. If I were a GM sitting with a top-three pick, I might feel most comfortable betting on him in hopes that he does figure out his jumper, because that's his only major drawback as a prospect right now. -- Schmitz