Which teams will benefit most from the 2020 NBA draft?
With a handful of picks changing hands ahead of this month's trade deadline, it's worth revisiting the question of which teams have accumulated extra picks for the 2020 draft and which teams won't be selecting in the first round at all.
Using projections from ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) and the history of production by pick, I've quantified the expected value of each team's possible first-round picks and summed them to determine who stands to gain the most from the draft. Let's take a look.
Expected 2020-21 wins from first-round picks: 2.4
Picks: Own, Brooklyn (lottery-protected)
The Timberwolves vaulted atop these rankings by getting the best pick to change hands at this year's trade deadline -- the Nets' lotto-protected pick, which came from Atlanta as part of the four-team trade that sent Clint Capela to the Hawks. It helps that Minnesota's own pick is likely to land in the top half of the lottery. BPI's projections give the Timberwolves the fifth-best chance to win the lottery.
Despite Kyrie Irving's season-ending shoulder surgery, Brooklyn is still likely to make the playoffs and send the pick to Minnesota. FiveThirtyEight's projections, which account for injuries, show the Nets reaching the playoffs 89% of the time. And because the Magic have a favorable remaining schedule, the most likely outcome is Brooklyn slipping to eighth in the East and dealing the most valuable possible lottery-protected pick, 15th overall.
Expected 2020-21 wins: 2.1
Picks: Own, Clippers
The Knicks are the other lottery-bound team with an extra first-round pick, having also acquired one at the deadline from the Clippers as part of the return for forward Marcus Morris Sr. While that pick isn't nearly as valuable -- on average, BPI projects it to land around 25th overall -- New York's own pick should be quite good. Though the Knicks currently have the league's fifth-worst record, BPI gives them the third-best chance to win the lottery, because the Timberwolves and Hawks are projected better over the remainder of the season.
Expected 2020-21 wins: 2.0
Picks: Own
As part of their sign-and-trade deal shipping Kevin Durant to the Nets for D'Angelo Russell, the Warriors were forced to send Brooklyn a heavily protected first-round pick that would have conveyed if it fell among the bottom 10 picks this year. Any chance of that happening was extinguished by Stephen Curry's wrist injury, which has left the Warriors with the league's worst record. A four-game deficit in the win category means Golden State might well enter the lottery in the top position despite Curry's imminent return for the season's final 20-plus games.
Expected 2020-21 wins: 1.9
Picks: Own (top-10 protected)
Like the Warriors, the Cavaliers technically don't own their pick outright, as it would go to New Orleans (via Atlanta) if it landed outside the top 10. Realistically, there's no chance of that happening, with Cleveland holding the league's second-worst record and with the best shot at falling behind Golden State in the standings if the Warriors do surge after Curry's return.
Expected 2020-21 wins: 1.7
Picks: Own
Though the Hornets are currently seventh in the reverse standings, BPI gives them the fourth-best shot at the No. 1 overall pick, in large part because Charlotte has massively outperformed its minus-7.9 point differential this season. Only three teams have been outscored by more points per game.
The close wins that propped up the Hornets' record have started to dry up recently. Since back-to-back three-point wins in early January, Charlotte is 4-15. And making matters worse, guard Malik Monk was suspended indefinitely on Wednesday for a violation of the NBA/NBPA Anti-Drug Program, just as he seemed to be coming into his own as a player.
Expected 2020-21 wins: 1.7
Picks: Own
Had the Hawks held on to the Brooklyn pick, they would have topped this list. With their top five players by minutes played all in their first three seasons, it's understandable that Atlanta would prefer the more seasoned contributions of Capela. The Hawks will still have a strong chance at landing in the top four with their own pick, though BPI projects something of a late surge against the league's easiest remaining schedule. If Capela returns from foot injuries, that could hurt Atlanta's pick even more.
Expected 2020-21 wins: 1.6
Picks: Own
BPI projections might undersell Detroit's chances at a top pick. The Pistons have lost their past seven games, going to a younger frontcourt after losing Blake Griffin to surgery, trading Andre Drummond and buying out Markieff Morris (as well as point guard Reggie Jackson). Detroit has still been competitive -- two of the losses have come by three points and a third in overtime -- but FiveThirtyEight's projections have the Pistons tied for the third-worst outlook along with the Knicks.
Expected 2020-21 wins: 1.5
Picks: Own
Having won three of their last four games before the All-Star break, the Wizards were thinking about a possible late playoff push. Instead, they lost their first two games after the break to the Cavaliers and Bulls. Washington is now as close to the league's second-worst record as it is to the eighth seed.
Expected 2020-21 wins: 1.5
Picks: Own
After Chicago's head-to-head win, BPI projects the Bulls and Wizards with almost identical outlooks -- Chicago an average of 28.1 wins; Washington an average of 28.0. FiveThirtyEight's projections, by contrast, slightly favor the Wizards to finish with a better record.
10. Boston Celtics
Expected 2020-21 wins: 1.2
Picks: Own, Milwaukee, Memphis (top-6 protected)
Odds are the Celtics will be the only team with three picks in this year's first round, which will happen as long as Memphis doesn't miss the playoffs and move into the top six (which would mean the top four, via the lottery). Still, Boston surely wouldn't mind the Grizzlies falling out of the playoffs, even if that risks the pick rolling over to 2021 (when it would be unprotected). Already holding two picks late in the first round (their own and the Bucks' pick), the Celtics would presumably greatly prefer one closer to the top 10 rather than outside the lottery.
11. Phoenix Suns
Expected 2020-21 wins: 1.1
Picks: Own
At 4.5 games out of eighth, the Suns are clinging to hope of a late playoff push. They actually have the best point differential of any playoff hopeful in the West at minus-0.9 points per game, but a reasonably difficult remaining schedule will probably keep them in the back half of the lottery.
12. Sacramento Kings
Expected 2020-21 wins: 1.0
Picks: Own
After sending the 14th pick in last year's draft to the Celtics, who took guard Romeo Langford, the Kings own their pick outright this year, when it should fall a spot or two higher in the lottery.
Expected 2020-21 wins: 0.9
Picks: Own
The Spurs famously acquired the 15th selection from Indiana in a draft-night trade in 2011, a pick that yielded Kawhi Leonard. But San Antonio hasn't picked in the lottery since landing Tim Duncan No. 1 overall in 1997. That looks likely to change with the Spurs battling a large pack of West contenders for the eighth seed.
Expected 2020-21 wins: 0.8
Picks: Own
While their streak hasn't been quite as long as San Antonio's, the Blazers have made the playoffs every year since 2013, when they drafted CJ McCollum 10th overall. (They also traded up to the 10th pick to take Zach Collins in 2017.) Portland will find itself selecting earlier than usual no matter the outcome of its late playoff push.
Expected 2020-21 wins: 0.8
Picks: Own, Cleveland (top-10 protected)
This projection reflects that the Pelicans are favored by BPI to finish eighth in the West because of a combination of their strong play since Zion Williamson's return and a favorable remaining schedule (rated third easiest by BPI). New Orleans got the rights to Cleveland's lottery-protected pick in last year's draft-night trade with Atlanta, but the Pels will surely have to settle for second-round picks in 2021 and 2022 from the Cavaliers instead.
16. Orlando Magic
Expected 2020-21 wins: 0.7
Picks: Own
Despite a record that is seven games below .500, the Magic are close to a lock to make the playoffs because of their remaining schedule (fourth easiest in the league, per BPI) and the weak East race for eighth. The big question from a draft standpoint is whether Orlando will pick 15th or drop to 16th for the second consecutive year.
Expected 2020-21 wins: 0.7
Picks: Own (top-20 protected), Denver
You can trace Oklahoma City's entire 2020 draft to Jerami Grant. In a move pioneered by Thunder executive Sam Presti, they sent a pick that is top-20 protected for one year only to Philadelphia to get Grant in 2016. That pick could go either way depending on the rest of the season, with BPI projecting Oklahoma City will keep it about two-thirds of the time (and instead send 2022 and 2023 second-round picks to the Sixers).
Nearly three years later, in the wake of the Paul George trade, the Thunder sent Grant on to Denver for a top-10 protected first-round pick. So Oklahoma City could have two picks in the back half of the first round and is assured of at least one.
18. Milwaukee Bucks
Expected 2020-21 wins: 0.5
Picks: Indiana (lottery protected)
Some 2½ years (and a contract extension) after trading for Eric Bledsoe, the Bucks will finally give up what appears sure to be the 30th pick in return. Milwaukee replaced the lost first-rounder by getting one from the Pacers in the sign-and-trade deal for restricted free agent Malcolm Brogdon, which should fall in the late teens or early 20s.
19. Dallas Mavericks
Expected 2020-21 wins: 0.5
Picks: Own
In addition to their own first-round pick, the Mavericks have one of the handful of second-round picks that could reasonably be expected to make an immediate impact. Dallas gets Golden State's second-rounder via the Andrew Bogut trade, and it could land 31st overall.
20. Brooklyn Nets
Expected 2020-21 wins: 0.4
Picks: Own (lotto protected), Philadelphia
Though Brooklyn surely wants to make the playoffs, keeping this year's pick to add to a veteran core wouldn't be such a bad thing given the likelihood that the Nets' pick will be much lower a year from now. Either way, Brooklyn will have a first-round pick, having received a lotto-protected one from the Sixers via the Clippers in a trade on the night of last year's draft.
21. Utah Jazz
Expected 2020-21 wins: 0.4
Picks: Own
The future first-round pick that the Jazz sent Memphis in the Mike Conley trade is protected at both ends this season, going to the Grizzlies only if it falls between 8 and 14. Realistically, that's not going to happen, meaning Utah will keep a late first-round pick, and the one owed to Memphis will roll over with the same protections in 2021 and top-6 protection only in 2022.
22. Miami Heat
Expected 2020-21 wins: 0.4
Picks: Own
The Heat are out a pair of future first-round picks due to trades. But they have their 2020 pick and must keep it at least through the draft so as to satisfy the Stepien Rule preventing teams from not having a first-round pick in future consecutive drafts. Once the pick is made, that no longer will apply.
23. Denver Nuggets
Expected 2020-21 wins: 0.4
Picks: Houston
Having sent their first-rounder to Oklahoma City for Grant, the Nuggets replaced it at the trade deadline, getting Houston's first in exchange for impending restricted free agents Malik Beasley and Juan Hernangomez. If the season ended today, the net result of that would be Denver moving up two spots from its own pick, but the teams continue to jockey for playoff position.
24. Toronto Raptors
Expected 2020-21 wins: 0.2
Picks: Own
We're getting to the end of the first round, and BPI projects the Raptors' pick coming in 27th overall on average.
Expected 2020-21 wins: 0.2
Picks: Own
It's highly likely the Lakers will pick 29th overall -- they do so in nearly 90% of BPI projections -- and they'll have to make use of it, with their 2021 pick (top-7 protected) already headed to New Orleans from the Anthony Davis trade.
Expected 2020-21 wins: 0.1
Picks: Own (top-6 protected)
Now we get to a couple of teams that most likely will not have a first-round pick this year. As noted, the Grizzlies' only hope of keeping their pick is missing the playoffs and winning a top-four spot in the lottery, which happens in just 6% of BPI simulations.
Expected 2020-21 wins: 0.1
Picks: Oklahoma City (top-20 protected)
Odds are the Sixers won't get the Thunder's first-round pick, leaving them without one this year; and if they do, it will land no better than the early 20s. This protected pick, incidentally, changed hands multiple times. Philadelphia dealt it to Orlando as part of a draft-night trade for the rights to center Anzejs Pasecniks, who never played for the team, then got it back in last year's deal sending Markelle Fultz to the Magic.
Tie-28. Houston Rockets, Indiana Pacers, LA Clippers
Picks: None
There are three teams with no realistic chances of having a first-round pick this year. The Pacers could technically keep theirs if they miss the playoffs, but they currently hold a 13-game lead over the Wizards. The Rockets and Clippers both dealt unprotected picks at the deadline knowing they were certain to pick in the bottom 10. Houston will not have a second-round pick, either, while the Clippers have their own second-rounder, and Indiana will keep its second-round pick as long as it is outside the top 44.