Let the rebuilding of the Detroit Pistons' roster commence.
The Pistons are coming off a season that has seen their two cornerstone players either lost for the season with yet another injury (Blake Griffin) or traded to a new team (Andre Drummond).
The good news is that despite the $75.5 million still owed to Griffin, the Pistons will have options this offseason to reshape their roster.
Let's look ahead to free agency, the draft and the trade decisions Detroit will face this offseason.
Note: The financials in here are based on the salary cap and luxury tax holding at the 2019-20 levels, as expected.
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The Pistons' massive cap space and how to handle it
The temptation will be there in early October. Flush with cap space for the first time since 2016, Detroit will have several options, including the quick-fix approach and more patient paths.
Option 1: Accelerate the rebuild
This would be the easiest approach -- one that might win headlines in July. But it could have severe consequences.
The Pistons are one of six teams with cap room, so they will be near the front of the line for free agents. Player agents know the Pistons have money to spend and will look to take advantage. But if the Pistons are really rebuilding the right way, spending now is not the right direction -- the timeline is wrong.
For example, Detroit could give Fred VanVleet $90 million over four years and Joe Harris $45 million over three years, then sign Christian Wood at two years, $10 million and use the midlevel exception on a player such as Nerlens Noel. Add in a likely top-seven pick and the return of Griffin, and Detroit would be in position to contend for a playoff spot.
This plan would probably appeal to coach Dwane Casey, who is more accustomed to coaching playoff teams than leading a rebuild. But if the ultimate goal is to escape the treadmill of mediocrity, the Pistons' front office should pass on tying up future flexibility.
Option 2: Rent out cap space
The optics are usually bad when a team becomes a dumping ground for undesirable contracts. It means that the team and its fans will have to wait for a winning season. This approach would be similar to what the Hawks have done in recent years when acquiring (and discarding) expensive veterans Jamal Crawford, Carmelo Anthony and Allen Crabbe.
In exchange for taking on additional salary, the Hawks received three first-round picks to use themselves or trade. For instance, the pick acquired from the Brooklyn Nets in the Crabbe trade would eventually be sent to the Minnesota Timberwolves to get Houston Rockets center Clint Capela.
Of course, this approach requires and tests a front office's patience. For one thing, Detroit would need to be willing to take back contracts that stretch into the 2021-22 season.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Washington Wizards have shown that being at the right place at the right time has benefits. Memphis received a future first-round pick when the Golden State Warriors needed to move Andre Iguodala to avoid the luxury tax. Iguodala would eventually be flipped for Justise Winslow at the trade deadline. Washington acquired Davis Bertans when the San Antonio Spurs needed to make room for Marcus Morris Sr. (who eventually signed with New York).
Option 3: One-year guarantees
This is similar to Option 2 in that it requires a long view by the team and its fans. The Knicks executed a version of this last summer, signing players to two-year contracts with only a one-year guarantee.
Still, Detroit would have to be careful to avoid pitfalls. When the Knicks spent $70 million of cap space in a 24-hour window after being rebuffed by Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, the execution was confusing and widely panned when it produced an unbalanced roster that left them very little flexibility to acquire long-term talent, bad contracts and/or future draft compensation.
Taking the one-year approach the right way would have the Pistons waiting until the market settles in free agency. And if they do this, they should maintain enough flexibility to absorb money in a preseason or midseason trade.
Figuring out Blake Griffin's future
When the Pistons acquired Griffin , they were working from the following logic: A midmarket team that was not a free-agent destination would suddenly have two All-Star building blocks in Griffin and Drummond. That was an exciting prospect for a struggling franchise.
The trade, however, came with significant risk. Prior to the trade, Griffin had undergone multiple surgical procedures, resulting in 183 games missed. Two years later, Griffin has been stellar when healthy but has missed an additional 82 regular-season and postseason games, with two surgeries on his left knee.
Griffin remains under contract for the next two seasons with cap hits of $36.6 and $38.9 million, respectively. The Pistons are almost certainly not going to use the waive-and-stretch provision on Griffin, which would result in a $15.1 million cap hit over five seasons. That approach would be reckless considering that Detroit has cap flexibility even with Griffin under contract. The same goes for entertaining buyout talks with the forward. (Salary relief from the league is not an option at this time, as the injury is not considered career-ending.)
I expect the team to take a slow and methodical approach to getting Griffin healthy. And because this team is in the infant stages of rebuilding, Detroit can wait until Griffin is 100%. The front office that acquired Griffin is no longer in place, and the stakes have changed as Detroit is no longer a playoff team. The goal should be to get Griffin healthy, get him back on the court and create a trade market for him.
The expected return, however, is low considering that he will come with a buyer beware tag.
Is there a Derrick Rose trade out there?
Rose is under contract for another season and a luxury for a rebuilding team. The Pistons made it clear they were shifting direction at the trade and buyout deadlines when they moved on from Drummond, Markieff Morris and Reggie Jackson.
With Rose still very productive but 32 years old this October and on a team-friendly contract of $7.7 for next season, it makes sense for Detroit to make him available to stock up on draft assets.
For example, Golden State could use part of its $17.2 million trade exception to acquire him, sending Detroit a future pick or picks (the Warriors have their own first-round picks in 2021 and 2022 and multiple second-round picks).
The same holds true for the Oklahoma City Thunder, with their bevy of draft picks and $10.4 and $9.3 million trade exceptions.
Offseason cap breakdown
Removing the free-agent cap holds, except for those attached to Wood and Jordan McRae, would put Detroit at a projected $29 million in room. To take advantage of the full amount of cap space and also sign Wood and McRae, Detroit can use room first and then exceed the cap using early Bird rights on both players.
Because the Pistons project to act under the salary cap, they will have the $4.8 million room midlevel exception.
Resources available to build the roster
$30 million in cap space
Lottery pick in 2020
Player development
$4.8 million room midlevel exception
$3.6 million cash to send out and $5.6 million to receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• Expect the Pistons to guarantee the contracts of Bruce Brown and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk.
Brown has a $1.66 million non-guaranteed contract that becomes guaranteed once he is on the roster past Oct. 27. The 2018 second-round pick gives Detroit a starter who can play multiple positions. Per Basketball Reference, Brown has played 25% of his possessions at point guard, 58% at shooting guard and 17% at small forward.
• Mykhailiuk was acquired at the 2019 trade deadline in exchange for Reggie Bullock. With a full year in Detroit under his belt, the small forward has started 23 games, shot 41.4% from 3 and averaged a career-high 8.9 points. (Mykhailiuk also played in the Rising Stars game for the international team during All-Star Weekend.) Mykhailiuk has a $1.66 million team option that Detroit has until Oct. 17 to exercise. Once the option is exercised, Detroit will then have until 8 p.m. ET on Oct. 22 to guarantee his contract.
• Khyri Thomas has $744,684 of his $1,663,861 contract guaranteed and the Pistons have until Oct. 23 to guarantee the balance. Thomas has played only five games this season.
• Expect Tony Snell to opt into his $12.2 million contract by Oct. 11 because he would not be expected to recoup that amount for 2020-21 as a free agent.
• The Pistons have until Oct. 17 to extend Thon Maker a $4.6 million qualifying offer. If the offer is made, Maker will become a restricted free agent. Maker has averaged 12.7 minutes (down from 19.4 last season) and started 13 games. The next contract for the former lottery pick projects to be the $1.8 million minimum exception.
Restrictions
• Mykhailiuk cannot be traded because he has a team option.
• Brown and Patton are on non-guaranteed contracts and would count as $0 in outgoing salary.
• Thomas would count for $744,684 in outgoing salary before his contract is guaranteed.
• The Pistons have $3.6 million cash to use the night of the draft to buy draft picks. Detroit can agree to a trade on Oct. 16 and send out more than $3.6 million starting on Oct. 23 because the full $5.9 million to send in a trade will replenish when the new cap calendar begins.
• Detroit is $8.2 million below the hard cap and will see that restriction lifted starting on Oct. 18.
Extension candidates
Remove games played from the stats column and Luke Kennard would be deserving of a rookie extension. In 28 games this season, Kennard averaged a career-high 15.8 points on 40% from 3. But Kennard did not play after Dec. 18, rehabbing from bilateral knee tendinitis. The knee issues are a reason why Detroit should let the deadline for rookie extensions pass for Kennard.
Besides Kennard, the Pistons have Brown, Mykhailiuk, Thomas, Griffin and Snell eligible for new contracts. Griffin would have been a candidate for a possible extension had his body held up.
Brown and Mykhailiuk represent the best chances for a possible extension. While neither will get the maximum allowed (four years, $55 million), Detroit will need to weigh cap flexibility in 2021 versus locking up either or both players on team-friendly contracts. Both players will be restricted free agents and carry a cap hold valued at $2.1 million.
As one possible approach, remember that Memphis went the extension route before the trade deadline and signed Dillon Brooks to a three-year, $35 million extension. The new contract extinguished close to $11 million in cap space but allowed the Grizzlies to have Brooks under a contract comparable to the midlevel exception.
The deadline for Mykahiliuk, Snell, Brown and Thomas to be extended is June 30, 2021. Griffin has a Nov. 30 deadline.
Draft assets
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Detroit selecting in the 2020 NBA draft:
• No. 7 (own): Tyrese Haliburton | PG | Iowa State
Detroit's own second-round pick was sent to the Suns (and now belongs to the Sacramento Kings) as part of the 2015 trade to acquire Morris and Bullock.
The Pistons own all of their future firsts and have a second-rounder from the Los Angeles Lakers in 2021, the less-favorable second-round pick of the Cleveland Cavaliers or Warriors in 2022 and the Portland Trail Blazers' second-rounder in 2023. They do not have their own second-rounders in 2021, 2022 and 2023.