Rockets get: Robert Covington, Jordan Bell, 2024 second-rounder (via Golden State Warriors)
Hawks get: Clint Capela, Nene Hilario
Timberwolves get: Malik Beasley, Juan Hernangomez, Evan Turner, Jarred Vanderbilt, 2020 first-rounder (via Brooklyn Nets, lottery-protected)
Nuggets get: Gerald Green, Keita Bates-Diop, Shabazz Napier, Noah Vonleh, 2020 first-round pick (via Houston Rockets)
Get more trade grades for every deal here
Houston Rockets: B
Though it took four teams to accomplish it, this trade was clearly built around the Rockets' desire to turn Capela into Covington, a move that seems to confirm their commitment to the small-ball lineups that have led Houston to a 4-0 record in games Capela has missed in the past week and a half.
There are larger issues at play here, including whether it makes sense to pay a starting center mid-market money given the ability to replace a large percentage of his production for a fraction of the price and the way incentives in Capela's contract (most notably a $1 million bonus for reaching the conference finals) made it difficult for the Rockets to avoid the luxury tax with any certainty. But all of those things were true before this week, when Houston's urgency to deal Capela seemed to accelerate based on published reports.
Playing small with P.J. Tucker at center was the Rockets' answer to the Golden State Warriors' "Hamptons 5" back in 2018, but there always has been a reluctance to play the 6-foot-5 Tucker too many minutes there lest he break down. That has gone away in the past two weeks, when Tucker has started and played exclusively at the 5 -- with 6-6 combo forward Thabo Sefolosha as his backup. When second-year center Isaiah Hartenstein played three minutes in the first quarter of Tuesday's win over the Charlotte Hornets, it was the first time since Capela was sidelined by plantar fasciitis in his right foot that Houston had played anyone listed taller than 6-6.
Over the course of the season, lineups with Tucker at center haven't necessarily been dominant. They've outscored opponents by 3.8 points per 100 possessions, as compared to a plus-2.5 net rating with Tucker at power forward, according to Cleaning the Glass. But logically, the trade-off makes sense given the Rockets' move to an isolation-heavy offense.
As recently as a couple of years ago, the danger Capela posed as a lob threat in the pick-and-roll game was crucial to Mike D'Antoni's offense. During the four seasons since Capela became Houston's starter, only Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams have run more pick-and-rolls than Capela and James Harden, according to Second Spectrum tracking. That has been a successful pairing, surpassed in points per chance (1.04) by only Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic (1.05) among duos who have run at least 1,500 pick-and-rolls.
Yet, as Dan Devine noted for The Ringer, Capela's role as a roll man has been minimized as the Rockets' offense has tilted more toward Harden isolations. Per Second Spectrum, the number of Harden-Capela pick-and-rolls Houston has run has decreased from 41.2 per 100 possessions in 2016-17 to just 18.1 so far this season. And Capela hadn't found the same kind of pick-and-roll chemistry with Westbrook. Those plays have yielded just 0.83 points per chance this season, which ranks 100th out of the 107 duos with at least 200 pick-and-rolls this season.
If Harden is just going to isolate, a more effective play for the Rockets the past two seasons than the pick-and-roll, then Tucker's ability to space the floor as a center is more valuable than the threat posed by Capela lurking in the dunker spot. And defensively, taking Capela off the court enables Houston to switch nearly every opponent screen without creating mismatches.
Part of the challenge with playing Tucker heavy minutes at center was simply finding enough perimeter players to fill out the rotation. Enter Covington, who gives the Rockets one of the league's better 3-and-D role players.
Since being waived by Houston (which signed him as an undrafted rookie) and emerging as a starter in Philadelphia, Covington has consistently rated far better by plus-minus metrics than the eye test would suggest. As adjusted plus-minus pioneer Steve Ilardi recently noted on Twitter, the five-year version of regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) on NBAshotcharts.com -- which factors in only team performance adjusted for teammates and opponents as well as luck on 3-point shots -- has Covington 23rd in the NBA over that span. Of the 22 players ahead of Covington, only three others (Patrick Beverley, Eric Bledsoe and Nurkic) have also never been chosen an All-Star.
ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), which also incorporates box-score stats for added stability, is nearly as effusive about Covington's value. His worst single-season RPM rating since 2014-15, when he landed with the Sixers, was plus-1.6 points per 100 possessions. He has been among the NBA's top 75 players in RPM each of those years, ranking 55th so far this season.
Much of Covington's unheralded value can be traced to his steal rate, which has consistently ranked near the top of the league. Steals typically help teams more than is conventionally believed, and Covington's teams have allowed a lower defensive rating with him on the court every season of his career, according to Cleaning the Glass -- including differentials that put him in the 96th and 99th percentile of all players in 2016-17 and 2017-18, respectively. The latter season, Covington was recognized as an All-Defensive first-team pick for the first time in his career.
Somewhat surprisingly, Covington's teams have typically been better offensively with him on the court too, including an 8.2-point differential this season. Covington isn't a good enough ball handler to reliably create shots for himself or others, but he's a career 36% 3-point shooter on sufficient volume (8.0 attempts per 36 minutes this season) to score with above-average efficiency over the three years since he has been surrounded by NBA-caliber starters.
That combination of skill set and size makes Covington similar to Danny Green, who has filled a 3-and-D role on two championship teams (in San Antonio and Toronto). In fact, FiveThirtyEight's player projections have Green as Covington's best match. (He's third in my SCHOENE similarity scores, with Trevor Ariza No. 1.) Like Green, Covington isn't good enough to single-handedly prop up a bad defense (as we've seen this season in Minnesota) and needs talented teammates to be effective offensively. But put him in the right situation and Covington can help a very good team become great.
We've gone this far without discussing Covington's contract, which is nearly as important to his trade value as his on-court ability. Covington came to Philadelphia on one of then-GM Sam Hinkie's favored multiyear contracts for the minimum. After Hinkie was replaced by Bryan Colangelo, the 76ers boosted his low salary as part of a rare renegotiation and extension, with the extension part of the contract kicking in last season. Covington makes just $11.3 million this season, putting him outside the NBA's top 100 salaries, and he is under contract with modest raises through 2021-22.
Thanks to his contract, Covington has about as much surplus value above and beyond his salary as any player in the NBA who's neither a superstar making the max nor on his rookie contract. Entering this season, my projections put him first among this group, just ahead of Lou Williams.
There is reason for concern about Covington's health. He missed the final 45 games last season because of a bone bruise in his right knee that ultimately required a debridement surgery and removal of loose bodies to alleviate discomfort. Though Covington has yet to sit out a game this season because of injury (the one he missed was for personal reasons), it could become a long-term issue.
Still, I think Covington is valuable enough to justify the Rockets giving up their first-round pick, especially if -- as Adrian Wojnarowski pointed out on Twitter -- they're able to expand the deal before it's finalized to take back more salary. Houston could legally add $12 million through this deal and can spend up to $5.8 million of that without going into the luxury tax.
Presumably, the target would be a center option. Though Bell could help the Rockets fill some minutes as a switching 5 -- the role he played with the Warriors -- it's no surprise that our Tim MacMahon reports Houston is still on the hunt for additional help there to keep Tucker from regular-season wear and tear. The Rockets have opened up a pair of roster spots with the trades and could also be active on the buyout market.
Atlanta Hawks: B
The Hawks have reportedly kicked the tires on a number of veteran centers in the past few weeks, and there's little question that from a financial perspective, Capela (under contract for $66.2 million over this season and the next three, not counting incentives) is a more favorable option than trading for Andre Drummond (who holds a $28.8 million player option for 2020-21). From a value standpoint, giving up a pick in the middle of the first round to get Capela is probably reasonable.
The question for Atlanta is more about the fit of Capela with power forward John Collins. Moving Collins out of the center spot is probably for the best. He'd split his time evenly between the two positions this season, per Cleaning the Glass, with the Hawks giving up five more points per 100 possessions when Collins anchored their defense. Though Collins is a prolific shot-blocker, his overall defensive impact has generally been negative. Together, Collins and Capela -- an above-average defender historically by RPM, though his numbers are down this season -- will give Atlanta a pair of rim protectors.
Offensively, however, both Capela and Collins are best as dive men in the pick-and-roll game. Trae Young-Collins pick-and-rolls have been as good for the Hawks' offense as the Harden-Capela combo in Houston, and Collins has rolled to the rim about 2.5 times as frequently as he has popped out to the 3-point line, according to Second Spectrum tracking. Collins can space the floor, having hit 35% of his career 3-point attempts, but that's not the best use of his skills.
In the past, the Hawks tended to develop their centers into 3-point shooters whether they'd shot them historically or not, a project that succeeded in the cases of Dewayne Dedmon and Alex Len. That's presumably not happening with Capela, one of the league's worst foul shooters (53% career). Via NBA Advanced Stats, Capela has attempted a grand total of four shots all season outside the paint, making one of them.
I want to be careful not to overstate my hand-wringing. More than players that fit together, Atlanta simply needs NBA-caliber talent to put around Young and Collins, and Capela represents an enormous leap forward in that regard. I also don't think the Hawks are necessarily marrying themselves to the Collins-Capela frontcourt for good. Capela should retain trade value if Atlanta decides he doesn't fit, or the Hawks might prefer to hang on to him and look to deal Collins before he's eligible for a rookie extension this summer.
By sending out Turner, Atlanta actually saved nearly $1 million in this deal. After the Hawks waive Nene, who has yet to play this season and whose 2020-21 salary is guaranteed if he's on the roster through Feb. 15, Atlanta will have $3.8 million in cap space to use on a salary dump or two before the deadline. Because the Hawks' roster was full, Atlanta will have to waive someone to make this two-for-one deal.
Minnesota Timberwolves: B-
The Timberwolves reportedly set a price of two first-round picks for Covington, and this deal includes them, though one was rerouted to the Nuggets. As a result, I think Minnesota did decently if trading Covington now was a priority.
Of course, the Timberwolves simply could have kept Covington given his favorable contract and friendship with star Karl-Anthony Towns. But it's understandable if new president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas wanted to move now given the seller's market that exists at this deadline, Covington's age (29) and the possibility of recurring knee trouble.
Minnesota landed a pick that should be valuable. Brooklyn's 2020 first-rounder is lottery-protected, but the weak race for the playoffs in the East all but assures that the Nets will convey it this season near the top end of its possible value. Projections based on ESPN's Basketball Power Index show Brooklyn making the postseason and sending the pick this year 89% of the time, with a most likely outcome of No. 15 -- the first pick outside the lottery.
Instead of simply pocketing Houston's first-rounder, the Timberwolves expanded this deal to include a pair of Denver reserves headed to restricted free agency. Adding Beasley and Hernangomez will help Minnesota fill the void left by Covington, and the Timberwolves stand a good chance of re-signing both players to reasonable contracts given the limited cap space available this summer.
More than anything else, Beasley and Hernangomez will supply needed shooting for a Minnesota team that ranks third in the league in 3-point attempt rate but 29th in accuracy (33%). With Jeff Teague in Atlanta, only two Timberwolves players are shooting better than league average from beyond the arc: centers Towns (41%) and Gorgui Dieng (39%). Beasley is a career 38% shooter and Hernangomez is at 35%, making both of them upgrades on what Minnesota has been running out there.
I would be somewhat cautious of overpaying for Beasley, in particular. His strong 2018-19 campaign, when he averaged 17.6 points per 36 minutes, looks suspiciously out of place with the rest of his career in terms of efficiency -- buoyed by 40% 3-point shooting, which has dropped to 36% in 2019-20. Beasley is just 23 and has developed into an excellent foul shooter (88% over the past two seasons), so there's reason to expect improvement to come. But if Beasley gets an offer sheet similar to the extension he turned down from the Nuggets in the preseason (three years, $30 million, according to ESPN's Bobby Marks), I'd walk away despite the investment of this trade.
Landing two young reserves and a midround pick won't exactly fulfill the D'Angelo Russell dreams dancing through the heads of Timberwolves fans this week. Still, this move gives Rosas more flexibility to shape Minnesota's roster to his liking after a disappointing 2019-20 season to date.
Denver Nuggets: B-
I wasn't sure whether the Nuggets would be willing to part with both Beasley and Hernangomez before the deadline given their roles as insurance in case of injuries, but a first-round pick to replace the one Denver sent to Oklahoma City for Jerami Grant last summer was evidently too much to turn down.
It's worth remembering that though they've played lately because of injuries (including a combined 52 minutes in Tuesday's blowout win over the Portland Trail Blazers, a shocking amount given how close this deal was to being agreed upon), Beasley and Hernangomez would probably both find themselves out of the rotation when the Nuggets are back at full strength. Michael Porter Jr. has emerged as Denver's top wing reserve, and Torrey Craig is Denver's top perimeter defender and therefore a greater postseason need.
Additionally, the Nuggets got back players who might be able to help them the rest of the season. Despite washing out in Minnesota, Vonleh is a credible third center who will probably get some minutes in the short term with backup Mason Plumlee sidelined. And Napier, who was starting for the Timberwolves, is overqualified for the role of third point guard behind Jamal Murray and Monte Morris. (Denver could perhaps flip him before the deadline to another team who could use him as a backup.)
The interesting question here is whether the Nuggets might have been better off keeping at least one of Beasley or Hernangomez in the hopes of re-signing him cheaply as a restricted free agent this summer, when as many as four rotation players (including Craig) could be free agents if Jerami Grant declines his $9.3 million player option. That's perhaps a bigger concern to me than the rest of this season, but Denver will also benefit from having a first-round pick given the team's recent success in the draft.