Over the past five seasons, no NBA player has more double-doubles than Andre Drummond's 286. He has averaged more career rebounds per game than Dennis Rodman.
So why haven't we seen more interest in Drummond since the report by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski that the Detroit Pistons have discussed trades involving him?
Drummond's status might tell us something important about the value of centers in the modern NBA, particularly to contending teams. Let's take a look.
Drummond's rebounding doesn't translate at team level
Drummond is the NBA's most prolific rebounder. His 15.7 rebounds per game lead the league, the fourth time in the past five seasons Drummond has done so. More advanced stats are equally effusive about Drummond's rebounding, as he also leads the league in total rebound percentage, which would mark the fourth time in his career.
Yet there's something confusing about all those rebounds Drummond has grabbed: They haven't necessarily translated into Detroit being an elite rebounding team, at least at the defensive end of the court.
Per Cleaning the Glass, the Pistons' defensive rebound percentage with Drummond has hovered around the 67 percentile over the past three seasons, meaning about a third of all players have seen their teams rebound better when they're on the court. Remarkably, this season is just the third time in Drummond's eight seasons in Detroit the Pistons have rebounded a higher share of opponents' misses with him on the court.
Part of the issue applies to all great rebounders: Because teams claim such a large share of defensive rebounds anyway (more than 77% this season), many of the rebounds they grab would have gone to one of their teammates otherwise. Though Drummond leads the league in contested defensive rebounds, according to Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats, his 3.9 per game represent barely more than a third of the 11.1 defensive rebounds he averages.
As a result, when we look at the impact an individual player has on his team's defensive rebounding (as measured by five-year ratings on NBAShotCharts.com, which adjust for teammates and opponents), we find it's not much. According to this measure, every extra defensive rebound a player grabs adds only about 0.06 rebounds to his team's total. By contrast, every extra offensive rebound adds about 0.22 offensive rebounds to the team total, more than 3.5 times as much impact.
There's also an issue more specific to Drummond: his tendency to pursue defensive rebounds rather than boxing out his opponent, which might allow a teammate to swoop in and grab it. As Ben Falk wrote in a subscription piece for Cleaning the Glass last year, this strategy leaves the Pistons vulnerable to giving up offensive rebounds when Drummond can't secure it himself.
Add the fact that Detroit's former backup center (Aron Baynes) is one of the league's best at boxing out (according to NBA Advanced Stats tracking, Baynes is sixth among players with at least 500 minutes this season in box outs per 36 minutes while Drummond ranks outside the top 150) and it starts to become clear how the Pistons could rebound better without the NBA's best individual rebounder.
Remarkably, it's Baynes instead of Drummond who has the most positive impact on his team's defensive rebounding, according to the NBAShotCharts.com adjusted five-year data, with Drummond ranking 60th in this category. Though Drummond is generating plenty of his value with his offensive rebounds (he's seventh in team impact there), the defensive rebounds he's accumulating don't help his team much.
Drummond's production replaceable
The other reasons teams might be slow to make a move for Drummond are related to cost.
One possible impediment is Drummond's contract status. He has said he plans to turn down a $28.8 million player option for 2020-21 in favor of becoming an unrestricted free agent this summer. That means interested teams must commit to Drummond without knowing what kind of contract he'll command as a free agent -- or, in some cases, whether he'd re-sign at all.
Still, that hasn't stopped teams from trading for impending free agents before.
And even aside from the eye-popping rebound totals, there's plenty to recommend Drummond's value. The question is whether he's worth a max-type salary for a contender with limited money to spend supporting its high-priced stars. These teams seem to have caught on to the relative ease of finding solid production at center.
Let's consider the top 10 championship contenders according to FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR projections and what they're paying their starting centers, as well as the production they've received as measured by ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) -- with Drummond as a comparison.
Among the contenders, two distinct groups emerge: teams that pay top-tier salaries for elite centers (Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert and Nikola Jokic) and get production to match and those that are spending relatively less at the position for competent-to-excellent play. Remarkably, this year's top three contenders (the two L.A. teams and Milwaukee) pay their starting centers less combined ($22.6 million) than Drummond alone will make this season.
The Boston Celtics perhaps best exemplify the latter philosophy. (Though the Lakers are spending less on centers, that's partially because they can slide All-Star power forward Anthony Davis to center when necessary.) After losing All-Stars Al Horford and Kyrie Irving last summer, the Celtics used the max cap space that created to sign Kemba Walker as a replacement for Irving and spent modestly to fill the void Horford left at center.
Daniel Theis was re-signed to a two-year, $10 million contract that is nonguaranteed next season, while Enes Kanter got a similar deal using Boston's room exception (two years, $9.8 million, with a player option for the second season). Add in 2018 first-round pick Robert Williams III and the Celtics are paying three centers a combined $11.7 million. For all the hand-wringing about Boston's weak center rotation, both Theis and Kanter (2.2 RPM, seventh among centers) have rated similarly to Drummond.
It's still possible the Celtics' centers could be an issue in the playoffs, but I don't think that would make whatever upgrade Drummond provides worth giving up either Gordon Hayward or Marcus Smart, one of whom would be necessary to match salary in a Drummond trade.
The equation could be different for a younger team with more money to spend. Woj's original report indicated Detroit had engaged in serious talks with the Atlanta Hawks, who currently project to have $70-plus million in cap space next summer. Drummond would be a much bigger upgrade on Atlanta's weak center rotation. So the Hawks' calculations instead have more to do with how much it's worth giving up to secure Drummond now rather than trying to land him as a free agent this summer.
With just days until the deadline, the Pistons might find a team willing to value Drummond in a trade, but it's unlikely that team will be a championship contender.