A year and a half after LeBron James left the Cleveland Cavaliers for the Los Angeles Lakers, are the Cavaliers any closer to putting together a contending roster without LeBron?
Tuesday night's report from ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski that, according to league sources, Cleveland and first-year coach John Beilein are parting ways makes this a good time to check in on the Cavaliers' rebuild, now under its fourth coach. It's J.B. Bickerstaff's task to develop Cleveland's recent lottery picks while figuring out how veterans Andre Drummond and Kevin Love fit in with the young talent.
Having spent four years in the lottery between James' first departure and his return in the summer of 2014, the Cavaliers haven't made the playoffs without LeBron in more than two decades. Has Cleveland made progress toward ending that streak? And where do the Cavaliers go from here?
Let's take a look.
The (hypothetical) building blocks
With back-to-back lottery picks, Cleveland selected a pair of guards -- Alabama's Collin Sexton No. 8 overall in 2018 and Vanderbilt's Darius Garland at No. 5 last year. The two youngsters have started together in the backcourt 53 of 54 games this season (Garland missed one game to rest).
It's possible that Sexton and Garland will also share something less desirable -- finishing dead last in the league as rookies in consecutive seasons in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric.
Because Sexton played enough minutes (31.8 per game) last season and had the ball in his hands enough to put up impressive-looking box-score stats (16.7 points, 3.0 assists per game), he made the All-Rookie second team. But Sexton's inefficient scoring, limited playmaking and nonexistent turnover creation as a defender (he averaged just 0.6 steals per 36 minutes) meant he was the league's most harmful high-minutes player in terms of winning. Never good in the best of circumstances, the Cavaliers were 8 points per 100 possessions worse in terms of net rating with Sexton on the court in 2018-19, according to NBA Advanced Stats data.
This season, it's Garland who's struggled in a bigger role than his performance would ordinarily dictate. Because Garland has been dreadful finishing against bigger defenders (he's making just 44.5% of his attempts inside 3 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com; nobody else with more than 100 attempts has made less than half of them), his .494 true shooting percentage ranks in the bottom 10 among players who have seen at least 1,000 minutes of action. And Garland too has contributed little in the box score on defense, averaging 0.8 steals per 36 minutes and blocking two shots all season.
The good news is Garland's presence has put Sexton in a more comfortable role as scorer first and foremost. He's taken a solid step forward in Year 2, dramatically boosting his 2-point percentage (from 44% to 48.7%) and nearly doubling his steal rate to climb above replacement level by my metric. Sexton's example shows how quickly young players can improve by playing to their strengths.
Still, there's no indication Cleveland has found its next All-Star through the lottery. Moving to shooting guard makes Sexton less valuable at the defensive end, where at 6-foot-1 he's giving up size to nearly all the Cavs' opponents. And Garland's physical limitations look like they could be more difficult to overcome than Sexton's lack of playmaking skill.
If the Cavaliers don't come away eventually with an above-average starter with either lottery pick, it will be a disappointment -- particularly given that Oklahoma City guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, taken three picks after Sexton, has shown star potential during his first two seasons.
The other two young Cleveland players who can be considered long-term fixtures are big man Larry Nance Jr. (in the first season of a four-year extension) and small forward Cedi Osman (who recently signed a four-year extension that will kick in next season). Both are useful role players who aren't difference-makers for a struggling team.
Nance's best long-term role might be as an energy big off the bench, while Osman appears stretched by his current role. He's making a career-high 38% of his 3-point attempts, but needs to cut out self-created 2-point attempts. According to NBA Advanced Stats data, Osman is hitting basically an identical percentage (37.3%) of 2-pointers outside the restricted area, and they don't count for as many points.
The question marks
Garland was one of three first-round picks for the Cavaliers this season, and No. 30 overall selection Kevin Porter Jr. has been a pleasant surprise as a rookie. The uber-athletic Porter has made enough of his 3s (35%) to score with near-average efficiency and has shown promise as a defender. Still just 19, Porter has time to play his way into becoming a building block for Cleveland.
It's been a lost season for the Cavaliers' other first-rounder, Belmont wing Dylan Windler. The sweet-shooting Windler suffered a stress reaction in his lower left leg prior to training camp, then experienced a setback after returning to the court in the G League. Surgery last month ended Windler's rookie season before he took the court for Cleveland, making it impossible to tell how he fits in long term.
At 24, newcomer Dante Exum is still young enough to be part of the Cavaliers' future. However, Exum's career-high 28 points on 11-of-13 shooting (which came in his sixth game with Cleveland after arriving from the Utah Jazz in the Jordan Clarkson trade) looks increasingly fluky; Exum hasn't scored more than seven points in a game since.
The veterans
While Beilein was presumably hired primarily to develop Cleveland's young talent, his inability to connect with the veterans on the roster helped doom his tenure. That starts with Love, the team's highest-paid player with three years after this one remaining on the extension he signed not long after James' departure. That contract complicated the Cavaliers' efforts to deal Love before the trade deadline, a process that won't necessarily get easier anytime soon.
If Bickerstaff can get Love to buy in, his game should complement that of Cleveland's young players -- at least offensively. Love's ability to stretch the floor creates spacing for Garland and Sexton to drive, and his passing ability can take some playmaking responsibilities off of the youngsters' plates.
Bickerstaff would be wise to give Love more touches in the high post, once a staple of his game (he averaged 8.0 elbow touches per game his final season in Minnesota, sixth-most in the league per NBA Advanced Stats) that has now all but disappeared (he's averaging 1.5 this season). Those opportunities could both unlock the Cavaliers' guards off the ball and keep Love more engaged.
Beside building rapport with Love, Bickerstaff's other main task in the short term is figuring out how newly acquired Drummond fits in the mix. Whether he picks up his 2020-21 player option or re-signs on a longer-term deal, Drummond will likely be in Cleveland next season after being added at the trade deadline for a paltry return.
Drummond's first two games in a Cavaliers uniform showed two very different possibilities for how that might go. He shot 7-of-17 from the field in his debut as Cleveland was blown out by the LA Clippers, but bounced back with an energetic performance in an easy win over Atlanta before the All-Star break, putting up 14 points and 15 rebounds in just 22 minutes of action.
In the short term, Bickerstaff must juggle minutes for Drummond, Nance and Tristan Thompson. Thompson, the Cavaliers' longtime starter at center, doesn't likely have a future in Cleveland as an unrestricted free agent this summer. Yet he's apparently opted against a buyout with an eye toward a sign-and-trade deal that could also return the Cavaliers some value.
Bickerstaff's job replacing Beilein won't be easy. He must find a way to reach both the young players who are part of Cleveland's future and the veterans whose mood will help determine how competitive the Cavaliers can be now.
Still, the harder job belongs to general manager Koby Altman, who is tasked with finding the top-tier talent necessary for Cleveland to grow back into a contending team. Some 19-plus months after the departure of the greatest player in team history, the Cavaliers don't look any closer to finding a new face of the franchise on their current roster. At least having the league's second-worst (or worst) record would bring a consolation prize -- a high draft pick, as the Cavs try once again to score in the lottery.