Is UNC's Cole Anthony still a No. 1 NBA draft pick contender?

What's the latest on the 2020 NBA draft stock of North Carolina point guard Cole Anthony?

Earlier this month, Anthony was ruled out for four to six weeks after undergoing an arthroscopic procedure on his right knee. At the time, he was the No. 4 prospect in our draft rankings. Since then, we've dropped him to No. 6 in our top 100.

Is Anthony a real No. 1 pick contender, or should teams be worried about his lack of offensive efficiency and impact on winning? What will NBA teams be watching for when he returns, and what will it mean if he doesn't play another college game?

Our NBA draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz answer six big questions about Anthony.

More: Top 100 NBA draft rankings

How do NBA teams view Anthony?

Anthony has always been a bit of a tough sell for some scouts because at times he demonstrates a ball-dominant style of play with questionable shots, head-down drives and lapses defensively. His high school and AAU teams almost always underachieved relative to their talent, and there have long been questions about how much his teammates like playing with him.

If that was your perception going into the season -- and it's a belief held by quite a few NBA scouts -- then nothing Anthony showed at North Carolina was particularly surprising or encouraging.

Still, you have to respect Anthony's scoring instincts and his ability to put pressure on defenses with his size, strength and power changing speeds. He shows toughness crashing the defensive glass, getting to the free throw line and at times locking up opposing point guards. In many ways, he is built for the modern NBA with his ability to play both guard spots, make shots off the catch or off the dribble and push in the open floor. Even his biggest detractors would say he is a near lock to put up major scoring numbers.

The real questions have always revolved around his ability to contribute to winning basketball. However, no NBA executive we've spoken with expects Anthony to undergo the same type of free fall that fellow UNC product Nassir Little experienced in last year's draft. (Little started off the season as a projected top-five pick and slid to No. 25 on draft night.) But the possibility of Anthony being surpassed by players such as the NBL's RJ Hampton, Iowa State's Tyrese Haliburton and Arizona's Nico Mannion on his way to the latter portion of the lottery is certainly in play.

We have a long way to go until June. How Anthony looks upon his return to action (either in a UNC jersey or during the pre-draft process) will go a long way in deciding where he ultimately ends up. -- Givony

Will Anthony play for UNC again?

It depends on whom you ask. Sources say that North Carolina's coaching staff completely expects Anthony to make a full recovery and return to the lineup upon being cleared. There has been nothing to suggest Anthony is planning on any other outcome.

But it's difficult to find a single NBA scout who believes things will actually materialize in that fashion. More and more highly touted prospects such as Anthony are choosing to err on the side of caution and not risk further injury (or poor play) that could jeopardize their draft stock and future earnings.

A four-week recovery timeline would have Anthony back on the floor in time for North Carolina's road game on Jan. 18 against Pitt. The Tar Heels are currently 7-5 but won't play a single surefire NCAA tournament team until Feb. 3 -- a road game against Florida State that would mark seven weeks since Anthony's surgery. UNC's ability to stay afloat in the tournament conversation may go a long way in helping Anthony decide whether to risk returning. -- Givony

What are Anthony's elite skills, and how will they translate to the NBA?

Anthony's elite scoring instincts and unwavering confidence give him a clear role as a bucket-getting guard should the rest of his skills stagnate (an unlikely outcome). Anthony is one of the most prolific scorers in Nike EYBL history, averaging 26.8 PPG while shooting 38% from 3 over 21 EYBL games, according to D1 Circuit. His ability to knock down transition pull-ups, put pressure on the rim in the open court and score from all three levels in pick-and-roll have definite value in the NBA.

That scoring attack starts with his off-the-dribble shooting. Although streaky, he has shown the ability to get to his pull-up at will, utilizing step-backs to his left, hang dribbles and simple rise-and-fire midrangers. He forces teams to go over screens with his range, then punishes drop coverages, which should come to life more with NBA spacing. The fact that he's a career 86% free throw shooter on over 660 attempts (according to Krossover) should instill confidence among NBA teams that his shot-making will translate. He's clearly at his best with the ball in his hands, but he's also comfortable shooting off the catch. That will allow him to fit in multiguard lineups, unlike athletic scoring guards before him such as Dennis Smith Jr.

For Anthony to fully tap into his potential at the highest level, though, he'll have to improve as a finisher. At the high school level, he relied so much on his then-superior leaping ability and physicality by barreling into rim protectors and drawing fouls. He's found some success doing exactly that in the NCAA, but when the level of competition rises and the whistles dry up, his lack of finesse shows. He's converted just nine shots in 35 at-rim finishes and floaters in the half court, a historically low number for a top-10-caliber prospect. So there's real reason to fear that Anthony will end up as an inefficient scorer who doesn't always make those around him better.

Anthony does have potential to move the needle on the defensive end, as highlighted by this monster block against Oregon:

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Anthony elevates to swat Juiston's dunk

Oregon's Shakur Juiston rises up to put down a fast-break dunk, but Cole Anthony rises higher and completely rejects Juiston.

Point guards generally tend to struggle adjusting to the NBA on defense, especially those without elite size or length like Anthony. He's been far from perfect at the point of attack and off the ball this season, but his competitive nature, quick feet/hands and rebounding feel should allow him to hold his own at the next level. While he may not be a bona fide stopper and does get lost away from the action at times, he generally has sharp anticipation as a rover, and his willingness to crash the glass goes a long way for teams that like to switch. That's an area where a guard such as Nico Mannion adds little value. -- Schmitz

Is Anthony's situation holding him back?

It's important to dive into the context of Anthony's situation at North Carolina, as we've done with other highly touted prospects who have struggled out of the gate. We expected Anthony at the very least to have a season similar to that of Coby White in 2018-19, with some monster scoring games, some inefficient nights and some encouraging playmaking performances. But the latter might have been too much to ask given Anthony's supporting cast. While Anthony should certainly shoulder some of the blame given his score-first mentality and shaky shot selection, he's clearly not dealing with a collegiate superteam here.

White had one of the nation's best floor spacers in Cam Johnson giving him ample room to operate. He had a very capable spot threat in Luke Maye playing the 4 and the 5, creating even more space. Despite a down shooting year, Kenny Williams could get out and sprint to the corners. UNC also had the athletes to play at a scorching pace.

This season, Anthony is dealing with space-eating bigs Garrison Brooks and Armando Bacot. It should come as no surprise that UNC ranks 49th in the NCAA in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom.com. On top of that, there are very few shooters for Anthony to feed on the perimeter.

The clogged paint has played a clear role in Anthony's struggles getting all the way to the rim and finishing. It has also accentuated his poor decision-making -- one reason for his negative assist-to-turnover ratio. -- Schmitz

Have NBA scouts seen enough from Anthony already?

The complicating factor in Anthony's decision to return or prepare for the draft is the fact that he did not play particularly well in his nine college games. He shot just 37.8% from 2-point range and averaged more turnovers than assists. UNC was 6-3 in that span, with just a single win over a top-60 opponent.

Anthony's collegiate production tells an alarming story, as the list of NBA draft picks to shoot under 40% from 2-point range with a negative assist-to-turnover ratio over the past 40 years is extremely poor, consisting of only Syracuse's Malachi Richardson and Duke's Cam Reddish. Neither comp inspires much confidence.

Anthony's porous offensive efficiency, the lack of impact he had on winning, the plethora of guard alternatives in this draft class and the background intel on his locker-room impact might necessitate a return to the floor for Anthony to become a guaranteed top-five pick. Basketball industry sources told ESPN that Anthony will be entering his sneaker negotiations with little to no momentum should his college career be over, which would cost him quite a bit of money on top of whatever he could already lose by potentially dropping in the draft.

Leading North Carolina on a run through the ACC and NCAA tournaments could certainly diminish many of those concerns. -- Givony

So where does Anthony rank among the draft's point guards?

While his scoring prowess and RSCI rating coming into his freshman season will carry weight for some, Anthony hasn't done enough to separate himself from the other top collegiate point guards in this class. As it stands now, I'd slot him behind both Nico Mannion and Tyrese Haliburton.

Haliburton's positional size, elite feel, shooting touch and approach to the game give him one of the highest floors in the draft, regardless of position. While Mannion has had his own ups and downs (40.2 true shooting percentage over his past five games) and some scouts remain skeptical of his ceiling, his passing instincts and overall touch give him a little more offensive upside. The athletic gap between Mannion and Anthony also isn't that pronounced, which we saw during the Nike Hoop Summit. While the NBL's LaMelo Ball is in a class of his own, in my view, it's not out of the question that French guard Killian Hayes works his way into the same tier as Anthony given his positional size, passing instincts and greatly improved pull-up shooting.

Anthony could certainly come back in mid-January, stabilize his efficiency and lead UNC to a deep run. It's important for us not to overreact to nine games with a lackluster, ill-fitting supporting cast. But regardless of UNC's team makeup, Anthony began his freshman campaign with a lot of the same questions we're asking now. At this point, his inefficient scoring and struggles as a facilitator could make him better suited for the back half of the lottery. -- Schmitz