What were NBA executives buzzing about at last week's G League Showcase?
This annual event has become something of a staple on the league calendar, with NBA teams sending some of their top decision-makers to scout players and share information as trade season approaches. Remember, the 2020 NBA trade deadline is just six weeks away.
ESPN's NBA insiders share trade, draft and free-agency info from the event, including the latest on Dion Waiters, Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin, the (potentially) loaded 2021 free-agency class and more.
The future of Dion Waiters
Bobby Marks: There is no resolution in sight when it comes to the future of Waiters with the Miami Heat.
"The Waiters contract is as close to untradable that I have ever seen in the NBA," one league executive told ESPN in Las Vegas.
Waiters, who has yet to play in 2019-20 and is owed more than $12 million in 2020-21, has been fined three times this season for a total of $1.4 million.
Of course, every contract can be moved in some kind of trade, but the expense required to move Waiters doesn't appear palatable. Miami is not attaching Kendrick Nunn, Bam Adebayo, Duncan Robinson or Tyler Herro to incentivize a deal. Even if the Heat were willing to include a draft pick as a sweetener, they aren't allowed to trade a first-rounder this season.
The Heat also are not taking back salary that stretches into the summer of 2021, as that would affect their plans to chase star free agents. That diminishes the possibility of waiving and stretching Waiters' 2020-21 contract (converting his deal to $4.2 million in each of the next three seasons).
Although every executive agreed that Waiters is untouchable when it comes to a trade, there was a split on whether he will be on the roster when the season ends. The Heat could waive him now and remove the headache, but he will be owed $20.5 million, and the team wouldn't receive any salary relief. The other option is to keep him on the roster but away from the team, hoping for a resolution this summer.
One thing that every team agreed upon: Waiters' career is likely over, barring an incredibly unlikely turnaround. That is why Waiters' entertaining a buyout should be off the table. Even if he signed a contract next season, it would be for a minimum, non-guaranteed $2.6 million salary, making it difficult for him to recoup whatever he would give up in buyout talks.
The summer of 2021
NBA teams are a little concerned that what seems like a talent-rich free-agent class in 2021 might be overhyped. Here is why.
LeBron James, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard -- the top three available players besides Giannis Antetokounmpo -- are all playing for their preferred teams in Los Angeles. With both the LA Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers built to win championships, it looks unlikely that we'll see any of those three change uniforms in 18 months. NBA chaos can break at any time, but planning to land one of those stars wouldn't be wise.
Of course, if Antetokounmpo bypasses signing a $252 million supermax contract with Milwaukee in July, teams such as Miami and the Toronto Raptors will be waiting with a $37.5 million max slot. The Lakers do not project to have max money available -- assuming Anthony Davis returns on a max in 2020 -- unless James opts out of his $41 million contract and signs for $6 million less.
If Antetokounmpo stays, a once-heralded class will feature Jrue Holiday, Spencer Dinwiddie, Gordon Hayward, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Rudy Gobert. There is also a group of players older than 35, including Kyle Lowry, Lou Williams, PJ Tucker and LaMarcus Aldridge. That's still a solid group, but it can't compare to the summer of 2019.
We could list restricted free agents, such as Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum, but it's unlikely that either player ever hits the market. If teams believe they can't find a difference-maker in 2021 free agency, that could influence their plans over the next six weeks leading up to the 2020 trade deadline. Future cap space could be less valuable, with contributors on long-term deals looking more appealing.
More free-agency news and notes
• Blake Griffin's contract and Andre Drummond's potential free agency create a level of uncertainty about the Detroit Pistons' future. After having left knee surgery in the offseason, Griffin has missed 13 games due to injuries while posting career lows in minutes, field goal percentage, rebounds and points per game. He is under contract through 2021-22, with annual cap hits of $34.4 million, $36.8 million and $39.0 million. Meanwhile, Drummond has a 2020-21 player option worth $29 million. It's important for the Pistons to figure out how both players fit into their long-term plans before the deadline passes.
• We took a straw poll with league executives on two questions: Which player is likely to be moved by the deadline, and which player would you risk draft picks, expiring contracts and young players to chase?
The Orlando Magic's Evan Fournier was the popular pick for most likely to be moved. Holding down the final playoff spot in the East, the Magic have shown no inclination to move the guard, but there will need to be a discussion within the next six weeks on what direction to take. Fournier is having a career season, averaging 20 PPG on 48.1% shooting from the field and 42.7% from 3. He has a $17.2 million player option for 2020-21 that many expect he will not pick up.
Jrue Holiday was the unanimous pick for the player teams would risk their assets to acquire. The New Orleans Pelicans' standout guard is under contract through 2021-22 (player option) and would be eligible this summer to sign a long-term extension.
• Although an extension is not likely, Jan. 7 marks the first date that Anthony Davis can sign a new contract with the Lakers. Because Davis waived his trade bonus when he moved from New Orleans, both sides had to wait six months to do a new deal. Davis will be eligible to sign a four-year, $146 million contract next month, or he can wait until July to sign a five-year, $202 million deal with L.A.
Although Davis has been noncommittal about his future, the leaguewide expectation is that Davis will be in a Lakers uniform for the foreseeable future. This Lakers' roster is built to compete for titles, and the teams with 2020 cap space can't offer that immediately.
• Teams are already looking ahead to March 1, the last day for a player to be bought out of his contract. Keep an eye on the following players if they are not moved by the trade deadline: Allen Crabbe, Evan Turner, Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Andre Iguodala, Jeff Teague, Marcus Morris and Derrick Favors. Those eight players each earn more than $15 million, presenting challenges when it comes to salary matching in trades.
Las Vegas: The epicenter of the basketball world
Jonathan Givony: For five days last week, Las Vegas transformed into the center of the basketball world, thanks to fortuitous scheduling that allowed NBA teams to simultaneously evaluate several college basketball games, one of the top high school tournaments in America, all 28 G League teams and 22 up-and-coming prospects from the NBA Academy.
In the past, the G League Showcase mostly drew directors of scouting or regional scouts, but many top decision-makers -- and even some front offices -- took advantage of the schedule and convened in Vegas.
"This was an extremely valuable week," said Ryan McDonough, the former general manager of the Phoenix Suns.
Things kicked off Tuesday, when the NBA league office unexpectedly reversed course and allowed teams to send scouts to evaluate top-10 high school prospect Matur Maker at the Tarkanian Classic. Maker has petitioned to become draft-eligible because he is one year removed from his original high school graduating class and 19 years old. The league has stated that it needs more information before allowing Maker to enter the 2020 draft because he was a junior in high school academically last year and has not yet received his diploma. After several poor showings in Vegas, Maker announced Wednesday that he will be transferring to another high school and boarded a plane for the Chick-Fil-A Classic tournament in South Carolina.
On Wednesday evening, a contingent of NBA scouts gathered at the T-Mobile Arena to watch Utah beat Kentucky. On Saturday afternoon, the Wildcats and their three top-100 draft prospects played another close game versus Final Four contender Ohio State, again suffering a loss. ESPN's Mike Schmitz and I highlighted those games in our latest NBA draft stock watch.
The main event, the G League Showcase, drew rave reviews from NBA teams for being a strong scouting environment. It wasn't lost on the many scouts in attendance that several players having strong seasons in the NBA were available for all 30 teams to call up at this event last year. The introduction of a tournament format, in which the winning team splits $100,000 in prize money, created urgency in the weeks leading up to the showcase (as teams competed for seeding) and in the championship bracket.
"The level of play has improved quite a bit over the years," McDonough said. "The biggest change I saw this week was the level of shooters every team has. If you look at the way the NBA is trending, that's clearly the one skill every player that wants to be on a roster needs to have."
For the second straight year, the NBA showcased 22 of its top prospects at league-operated academies in China, Mexico City, Australia, Senegal and India. The prospects -- ranging from age 15 to 18 and representing 12 nationalities -- played in two early-morning scrimmages designed to showcase them for the hundreds of NBA executives in attendance.
While in Las Vegas, the two NBA Academy teams also participated in the prestigious Tarkanian Classic high school tournament, providing much-needed exposure in front of dozens of college coaches.
Started three years ago, the Academy venture has made significant progress in recruiting and developing talent. Players such as India's Princepal Singh, Egypt's Aly Khalifa and Nigeria's Joshua Ojianwuna and Efe Abogidi are great examples of prospects who have improved tremendously in terms of their skill development, feel for the game and overall athleticism. Whereas the Academy teams were on the receiving end of numerous blowout losses last year in the Tarkanian Classic, this year's groups won every game by a wide margin, except for one narrow loss.
Last year, the two Academy teams couldn't count on a single one of their 25 participants being assured to play high major college basketball. This year, there are up to a half-dozen players who are legitimate NBA prospects, with Australia's Mojave King having first-round potential in 2021. Clemson commit Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Washington State commit Efe Abogidi and uncommitted prospects Josh Giddey, Josh Ojianwuna and Augusto Cruz also drew praise from the NBA executives in attendance.
With recruiting pipelines firmly established and the development process underway, the next step for the Academies will be to develop NBA players from some of these emerging markets, including China, India, Southeast Asia, Brazil and Mexico.