How should the New Orleans Pelicans value players from the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers in a possible Anthony Davis trade?
With ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reporting Wednesday that the Celtics and Lakers are both engaged in trade talks with the Pelicans for Davis, it's worth wondering which players and draft picks they might be discussing and how they could fit in New Orleans.
In particular, players' trade values differ from strictly their ability on the court because of the importance of salary to this calculation. Taking performance, age and contract into account, here are my rankings of the most valuable players and picks available to the Pelicans -- some of which differ dramatically from how those players are likely valued around the league.
1. Jayson Tatum | Celtics | Forward
The perception of Tatum seems to have slipped after a disappointing second season that was in part a product of unrealistic expectations created by his strong 2018 postseason. Tatum was ranked 24th overall in ESPN's NBArank entering 2018-19, which was never fair for a player who wouldn't turn 21 until March, shot unsustainably well on 3s as a rookie and was moving into a new role with the returns of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward.
It's reasonable to be worried about Tatum reverting to the more inefficient style he played before getting to the NBA. Nearly a third of his shot attempts were pull-up 2-pointers, which Tatum made at just a 37% clip, according to Second Spectrum tracking data on NBA Advanced Stats.
Still, Tatum would have gotten more leeway for those kinds of bad shots on a lottery team. Take a step back, and his potential is still strong. He finished fifth among sophomores in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric last season and projects to take a solid step forward in 2019-20.
In February, our panel placed Tatum eighth in our 25 under 25 rankings, making him almost certainly the best young player the Pelicans could get in a Davis trade.
2. Lonzo Ball | Lakers | Guard
Ball also experienced a difficult second season, with health a big factor in his case. Eased back into the rotation after offseason knee surgery, Ball had to figure out how to fit his skills with newly signed LeBron James. Just when he seemed to have found his footing during LeBron's absence, Ball suffered a severe ankle sprain that ended his season in late January. The Lakers' defensive collapse after Ball went down reinforced his value at that end of the court.
Certainly, there are still concerns about Ball's upside. LeBron's injury also coincided with Ball losing confidence at the foul line; from Dec. 30 onward, he shot a ghastly 18% (3-of-17) on free throws. He'll have to improve that, along with his accuracy beyond the arc (33%), to stay on the court in key situations.
Again, though, these are questions we aren't asking of every 21-year-old sophomore. Ball's elite court vision and defense would make him a helpful part of New Orleans' new direction.
3. 2019 No. 4 pick | Lakers
The Lakers' lottery luck gives them the surest top draft pick between the two teams, albeit in a year when the No. 4 pick is likely less valuable than usual. My draft projections show a deep drop-off after the top two prospects, and while most observers regard Duke forward R.J. Barrett as a third top player, there's less consensus on No. 4.
4. Future Memphis first-round pick | Celtics
Since the Grizzlies jumped to No. 2, the first-round pick they dealt to Boston for Jeff Green rolls over to 2020. It will be top-six-protected next year before becoming fully unprotected in 2021.
Given that potential and the prospect of deeper drafts in the future, the Memphis pick has more upside than the No. 4 pick this year. However, the uncertainty about where it might fall and the waiting period for it make it less valuable overall in my view.
5. Marcus Smart | Celtics | Guard
Smart occasionally gets treated as salary ballast in a potential Davis trade, and he's likely a needed presence, given that Gordon Hayward is the only other Celtics player under guaranteed contract for more than $8 million in 2019-20. (Al Horford could join them if he picks up his $30.1 million player option.) Nonetheless, Smart's presence should be considered a key part of the value the Pelicans could get for Davis.
Long one of the NBA's top perimeter defenders, Smart was rewarded with an overdue spot on the All-Defensive First Team this season. The tradeoff with Smart had come in low shooting percentages at the other end, but in 2018-19, he shot a career-high 36% on 3s. Although it's unlikely that he will maintain that mark, Smart has always been a capable foul shooter (76% career), making his poor 3-point marksmanship a bit of a head-scratcher.
Add the 3-point shooting to his elite defense, and Smart ranked in the top 50 in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) last season, best of any player on this list. Still just 25, Smart has room for continued growth as a playmaker. He's under contract for a reasonable $40 million over the next three seasons, giving him strong trade value.
6. Kyle Kuzma | Lakers | Forward
Despite LeBron's arrival, Kuzma boosted his scoring to 18.7 points per game last season, third-best among NBA sophomores. Given Kuzma's bargain rookie contract (paying him $2.0 million in 2019-20 and $3.6 million in 2020-21), that would seem to make him extremely valuable in trade.
Unfortunately, Kuzma's scoring average overstates his value. Because his 3-point accuracy regressed from a surprising 37% as a rookie to 30% in year two, Kuzma's true shooting percentage (.546) remained weaker than league average (.560). Also, Kuzma doesn't bring much value in areas besides scoring, though he improved his defense to some extent as a full-time starter.
As a result, Kuzma's RPM was only average and his advanced box-score stats weaker than that.
7. Josh Hart | Lakers | Guard
In year one, pairing Hart with LeBron didn't work quite as well as anticipated. He too slumped beyond the arc, going from 40% as a rookie to 34%.
If Hart can settle in between, he should find his niche as a 3-and-D role player and an ideal complement to a Davis-LeBron pairing in L.A. Hart has the strength and quickness to defend up to four positions, and his contract is almost identical to Kuzma's since they were drafted three picks apart in 2017.
8. Jaylen Brown | Celtics | Forward/guard
Much was made of Brown's role shrinking with the returns of Hayward and Irving, and that was accurate in terms of games started (just 25 after he played 70 in 2017-18). Ultimately, though, Brown's advanced stats in 2017-18 and 2018-19 were almost identical in every respect but one: His 3-point percentage dropped from 40% in 2017-18 to 34% last season, the same as he shot as a rookie.
For the impressive flashes he shows, Brown hasn't consistently been able to score either prolifically or efficiently. (Even in 2017-18, with strong 3-point shooting, his true shooting percentage was around league average.) And while Brown can defend multiple positions with his excellent size, he's less effective as a help defender.
Worse yet, Brown's admirers around the league make it so the Pelicans would have to pay up to either extend him before this season or re-sign him as a restricted free agent in the summer of 2020. They would get only one season of him at a bargain rate ($6.5 million in 2019-20).
9. Brandon Ingram | Lakers | Forward/guard
Many of the same concerns about Brown, the No. 3 pick in 2016, apply to Ingram -- picked one spot earlier. Ingram's combination of 6-foot-9 size, long arms and skill to handle the ball has tantalized teams without translating into consistent success on the court.
Supporters will point to Ingram's strong close to the season (after LeBron first went down injured, including games after his return, Ingram averaged 20.5 points and 3.6 assists on 51% shooting) as evidence of his potential. Yet even in this stretch, the Lakers were no better with Ingram on the court than on the bench (posting a poor minus-5.4 net rating either way, per NBA Advanced Stats).
Beyond the questions about Ingram's value on the court, New Orleans must weigh his future health after he underwent thoracic outlet decompression surgery in March to treat deep venous thrombosis in his right arm. The Pelicans have to be confident that the surgery will prevent a recurrence of the blood clot that ended Ingram's season.
10. 2019 No. 14 pick | Celtics
It's worth noting that first-round picks no longer have quite as much trade value as they did a few years ago because the new NBA collective bargaining agreement has gradually increased the rookie scale for first-rounders. As a result, the No. 14 pick this year will make only slightly less over the next four years ($18.0 million) than Brown's rookie contract as the No. 3 pick in 2016 ($21.4 million). Given their potential, I would take a single year of Brown or Ingram over this year's No. 14 pick.
11. Robert Williams | Celtics | Center
In 283 minutes as a rookie, Williams shot an impressive 71% from the field and blocked an incredible 12.5% of opponent 2-point attempts. On a non-contending team, Williams would have the ability to play immediately as a pick-and-roll threat and rim protector, as his defensive mistakes would be less of a concern.
Nonetheless, Williams' trade value is limited by the ease of finding similar contributors at center. For example, New Orleans claimed Christian Wood when the Milwaukee Bucks waived him late last season and saw Wood average 26 points and 12 rebounds per 36 minutes while shooting better than 60% inside the arc.