As expected, Duke's Zion Williamson is No. 1 in my 2019 NBA draft statistical projections. Who's next? Let's update my projections for college prospects who have declared or are automatically eligible for this year's draft.
My statistical projections start by translating NCAA performance to projected NBA rookie performance, also factoring in regression to the mean for outlier performance. I then calculate projected value over the player's first five NBA seasons by combining rookie projections with age. To that stats-only version, I also add a consensus projection that improves predictive power by incorporating where players rank in my colleague Jonathan Givony's top 100 rankings.
I introduced two key adjustments to the projections last year. First, I now incorporate translated performance in the Nike EYBL thanks to statistics compiled by Neil Johnson of ESPN Stats & Information. Second, I'm now adjusting for replacement level by position to account for the surplus of productive big men entering the league.
For more details and past projections, check out a more detailed explanation. Otherwise, let's get to my top 30.
1. Zion Williamson
Duke
PF
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 5.2 WARP
When I took a detailed look at Zion's projection in late February, I suggested he could catch Anthony Davis for the best college projection in my database with a strong finish to the season. Alas, the MCL sprain Williamson suffered in the opening minutes of that night's game against North Carolina ruled out that possibility. Nonetheless, Zion will be the highest-rated player in this year's draft and second to Davis overall.
2. Ja Morant
Murray State
PG
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 3.3 WARP
After leading Murray State to the Ohio Valley Conference title and the NCAA tournament, Murray has emerged as the No. 2 prospect in our top 100. That's also where my consensus projections put him. It helps that though Morant is a sophomore, he's young for his class -- just three weeks older, for example, than Duke freshman Cam Reddish. Morant also projects as an elite playmaker. He has the best projected assist rate of any player in our top 100.
3. RJ Barrett
Duke
F/G
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 31
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Barrett's volume scoring gives him the highest projected usage rate as an NBA rookie of any underclassman in the top 100. The question is whether Barrett will score efficiently to justify that big of a role, particularly as a young player. Although Barrett is a strong playmaker for a wing, the rest of his game doesn't project particularly well. Notably, Barrett's steal rate is surprisingly weak for a player with his athletic gifts.
4. Darius Garland
Vanderbilt
PG
Top 100: 4
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
Since Garland's NCAA career ended after just 139 minutes due to a meniscus tear, it's useful to have EYBL stats to aid in his projection. That shows him as a good but not great prospect. Garland's steal rate was a weakness against EYBL competition.
5. Cam Reddish
Duke
SG
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Reddish's projection owes more to his strong 2017 performance as a rising senior in the EYBL, when he was solidly efficient in a huge role on offense, than his freshman campaign at Duke. Eventually, Reddish is going to have to translate his solid shooting form into more consistent 3-point accuracy, having shot 33 percent this season. If he does, his other skills will make Reddish a valuable wing player.
6. Bol Bol
Oregon
C
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Even with an adjustment for the high replacement level at center, Bol still is a top-10 prospect by my stats-only model because of his prolific shot-blocking and high-percentage finishing first in the EYBL and then during his nine-game stint at Oregon. Only one player in my database -- Hassan Whiteside -- has had a higher projected block rate than Bol as a freshman.
7. Jarrett Culver
Texas Tech
G/F
Top 100: 6
Stats: No. 24
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
Culver looks the part of an elite wing prospect but doesn't quite have the statistical profile of one. His projection isn't bad, exactly, so much as uninspiring. Culver projects in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound wings in only one category: block rate.
8. Chuma Okeke
Auburn
F
Top 100: 41
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
In contrast to Culver, Okeke was far more productive at the defensive end of the court, where he rates in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound forwards in both steal and block rate. Alas, Okeke's stats-only projection doesn't account for the torn ACL he suffered in Auburn's Sweet 16 win over North Carolina, which will presumably sideline him much of next season and caused him to tumble on draft boards. A team that doesn't need Okeke to contribute next season could get a steal once he returns to the court.
9. Dedric Lawson
Kansas
F
Top 100: 44
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
After sitting out a year as a transfer from Memphis, Lawson proved his production could translate against high-major competition. Although Lawson's shot-blocking is unlikely to carry over in the NBA, one reason scouts are so much lower on his potential, Lawson's ability to stretch the floor (39 percent on 3s this season) should allow him to play facing the basket.
10. Brandon Clarke
Gonzaga
PF
Top 100: 12
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Only Zion posted a better box plus-minus rating this season than Clarke, who dominated in his first (and presumably only) season after transferring to Gonzaga from San Jose State. Like Williamson, Clarke has been a hyperefficient finisher (71 percent on 2s) and made a big impact at the defensive end (his projected block rate ranks sixth among top-100 players). At a listed 6-foot-8, 215, Clarke has a very different frame. But he should be able to carve out an NBA role as either a tiny center or a playmaking power forward.
11. Shamorie Ponds
St. John's
PG
Top 100: 49
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Though scouts are skeptical of his size (listed 6-foot-1) and shoot-first style, Ponds' well-rounded game rates well. He projects in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound point guards in seven of the 10 skill-based categories I assess, tied with Williamson for the most strengths of any collegiate prospect.
12. Coby White
North Carolina
PG
Top 100: 10
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
Per Sports-Reference.com, only one major-conference freshman -- Williamson -- was more efficient (in terms of true shooting percentage) than White while using a larger share of his team's plays. Given the track record of one-and-done point guards, it will probably take a while for White to score efficiently in the NBA, but his combination of scoring potential and size is intriguing down the road.
13. Talen Horton-Tucker
Iowa State
F
Top 100: 21
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
Horton-Tucker is a 6-foot-4, 233-pound frontcourt player with perimeter skills. Built somewhat like Houston Rockets forward P.J. Tucker, Horton-Tucker isn't that kind of defender but is capable of creating shots for himself or others. He will have to improve his 3-point accuracy (31 percent) to live up to this projection, but time is on his side. Horton-Tucker won't turn 19 until next November, making him the youngest player in the top 100.
14. John Konchar
Purdue-Fort Wayne
SG
Top 100: 68
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
Givony highlighted Konchar as a sleeper to watch prior to his junior season, and nothing has changed as Konchar wraps up a phenomenal four-year career for the Mastodons. A career 42 percent 3-point shooter, Konchar also made 63 percent of his attempts inside the arc and is a strong playmaker for his size.
15. De'Andre Hunter
Virginia
SF
Top 100: 5
Stats: No. 63
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Hunter's statistical projections are relatively weak for a couple of key reasons. First, as a redshirt sophomore, he's already 21. Second, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year isn't getting much credit on that end because of his relatively low steal and block rates. While those can be indicators of an overrated individual defender, they also might reflect the risk-averse style favored by Tony Bennett's pack-line defense. While Hunter's 44 percent 3-point shooting last season won't likely carry over intact to the NBA, he should still be a valuable 3-and-D contributor.
16. Jalen Pickett
Siena
PG
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Lightly recruited despite solid EYBL numbers, Pickett burst on the scene as a freshman, averaging 15.8 points, 6.7 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game. He's testing the draft waters and will participate in the G League Elite Camp this weekend in Chicago. Returning to school after drawing the attention of scouts seems like Pickett's best course of action, but if I were a team with a second-round pick I would consider promising to select Pickett and developing him in the G League.
17. Jaxson Hayes
Texas
C
Top 100: 9
Stats: No. 47
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Hayes' ability to finish above the rim is ideal for a modern NBA nonshooting center. Per Synergy Sports, his 80 percent shooting as a roll man was best of any Division I player with at least 50 such opportunities. Hayes is also in the nation's top 20 in block rate. However, his pursuit of blocks tends to lead to fouls (5.7 per 40 minutes) and often leaves him out of position on the defensive glass, weaknesses that will limit Hayes' NBA value.
18. Matisse Thybulle
Washington
G/F
Top 100: 28
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Arguably the nation's best perimeter defender, Thybulle was a destructive force as part of the 2-3 zone defense Mike Hopkins brought to the Huskies from his long tenure on Jim Boeheim's coaching staff at Syracuse. Before Thybulle, no prospect in my database had ever been projected for a steal rate of better than 3 per 100 plays and blocks on better than 2 percent of opponent 2-point attempts. Given the long track record of Syracuse prospects underperforming their defensive numbers in the zone, it's unlikely Thybulle will quite live up to that, but his two years playing primarily man-to-man under previous coach Lorenzo Romar suggest Thybulle can still be a quality defender against either guard spot and most small forwards.
19. Kevin Porter Jr.
USC
SF
Top 100: 14
Stats: No. 34
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Porter presents one of the most extreme contrasts you'll see between his 3-point shooting as a freshman (41 percent on 68 attempts) and his foul shooting (52 percent on 46 attempts). His true shooting ability probably lies somewhere in between. Porter shot just 32 percent on 151 3-point attempts in the Nike EYBL, but hit a more credible 66 percent of his 112 free throw attempts.
20. Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Virginia Tech
PG
Top 100: 23
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Less heralded as a freshman than his cousin, LA Clippers rookie Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alexander-Walker took a solid step forward as a sophomore. In particular, he improved his playmaking after playing primarily off the ball as a freshman. A 38 percent career 3-point shooter, Alexander-Walker could end up playing either guard spot in the NBA.
21. Romeo Langford
Indiana
G/F
Top 100: 11
Stats: No. 53
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
The key question for Langford's NBA prospects is whether this season's 27 percent 3-point shooting is fluky. Langford has good form, and has shot a more respectable 72 percent from the foul line, offering hope he can spread the floor as a pro. Beyond that, Langford hasn't done much as a freshman to fill out the box score beyond scoring.
22. Dylan Windler
Belmont
SF
Top 100: 33
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
Extra attention on the OVC because of Morant might have helped scouts notice how productive Windler had already become. One of the nation's more efficient high scorers, he was a career 67 percent shooter on 2s and 41 percent shooter on 3s, though as my colleague Mike Schmitz has noted, those numbers declined substantially against top competition.
23. Alen Smailagic
Santa Cruz (G League)
F/C
Top 100: 67
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
The lone G League prospect in the top 100, Smailagic was a productive reserve for the Warriors' affiliate playing against far more experienced competition at age 18. (He won't turn 19 until August.) The Serbian native put up an unconventional stat line, grabbing more offensive rebounds than defensive boards despite spending much of his time on the perimeter offensively. (He attempted 3.4 3s per 36 minutes, making them at a 24 percent clip.) Smailagic has shown enough interesting skills to be worth drafting in the second round as a developmental project.
24. Tyler Herro
Kentucky
SG
Top 100: 17
Stats: No. 40
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
The top-ranked player on a John Calipari team whose prospects generally did not project well by my model, Herro has a strong combination of size (6-foot-5), shooting ability (36 percent on 3s, but an impressive 94 percent on free throws as a freshman) and ballhandling chops.
25. Nassir Little
North Carolina
SF
Top 100: 16
Stats: No. 46
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
You probably didn't need a statistical projection to know Little's performance as a freshman was underwhelming. Little has made just 14 3-pointers all season, a concern as he transitions to the longer NBA line -- though his 77 percent foul shooting is encouraging -- and projects in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound small forwards in only one area: 2-point percentage.
26. Ty Jerome
Virginia
G
Top 100: 29
Stats: No. 29
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Jerome's playmaking this season -- 10.6 assists per 100 possessions -- has demonstrated he can play the point at 6-foot-5, with enough shooting ability (39 percent career from 3) to play off the ball if necessary. Unlike his more heralded teammate Hunter, he has racked up steals at a high rate.
27. Chris Clemons
Campbell
PG
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Since Isaiah Thomas in 2011, there have been four sub-6-foot players drafted: Kay Felder, Pierre Jackson, Shane Larkin and Tyler Ulis. None has stuck in the NBA, though it's worth noting that undrafted 5-foot-11 Fred VanVleet has become a productive reserve. So it's understandable that scouts are wary of the 5-foot-9 Clemons despite his monstrous scoring production, which saw him finish third in Division I history in career points behind Pete Maravich and Freeman Williams.
28. Zach Norvell Jr.
Gonzaga
SG
Top 100: 77
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
Despite looking the part statistically of a first-round pick and playing for a highly scouted team likely to have two players (Clarke and leading scorer Rui Hachimura) taken in the first round, Norvell hasn't been able to get much traction with scouts. He was only a good 3-point shooter in terms of college accuracy (37 percent) rather than a great one and was a secondary option offensively. Still, a strong performance at the combine might push him up the top 100.
29. Darius Bazley
Princeton (HS)
SG
Top 100: 43
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
Because Bazley spent the winter as an intern for New Balance rather than playing either at Syracuse (where he originally committed) or in the G League, his projection is based entirely on performance in the 2017 Nike EYBL. Bazley was good though not great against that competition -- he excelled as a shot-blocker but shot a subpar 50 percent on 2-point attempts -- suggesting he's a reasonable flier late in the first round or early in the second.
30. Grant Williams
Tennessee
PF
Top 100: 24
Stats: No. 44
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
Williams is the exception to the rule that undersized, highly productive college players usually project better statistically than in the eyes of NBA decision-makers. Though Williams' age is a strength (just 20 as a junior, he's younger than eight of the 14 sophomores in the top 100), his below-average efficiency as a sophomore (.544 true shooting percentage) and middling defensive rebound percentage work against his projection.