NBA draft debate: Four questions about Ja Morant's star potential

Murray State guard Ja Morant has been the No. 2 prospect in our top 100 rankings since late March, when he moved ahead of Duke's RJ Barrett while showing his star potential during the Racers' two games in the NCAA tournament.

How likely is Morant to reach that star point guard ceiling? And how does he fit with the Memphis Grizzlies, the team likely to select him at No. 2?

Our draft experts answer the big questions about Morant heading into the NBA draft on June 20, starting with their disagreement on who should be the No. 2 prospect behind Zion Williamson. Jonathan Givony has Barrett, while Mike Schmitz has Morant.

1. How will Morant's frame hold up in the NBA?

Givony: Let me start off by saying I'm a big fan of Morant and think he's the clear-cut No. 3 prospect in this draft. Having Barrett at No. 2 says more about Barrett for me than it does about Morant.

With that said, there are some concerns I have that I believe Morant will need to address to reach his full potential in the NBA -- things that will help determine whether he's just a solid starter in the NBA or an All-Star, as his freakish athleticism, court vision, creativity and overall basketball instincts suggest.

I know guys get stronger in the NBA, especially players like Morant who are late bloomers who grew in their late teens. But he's coming from a really drastic starting point in terms of how frail he is, and there doesn't appear to be a ton of room on his frame to continue to add bulk. At 6-foot-3, 170 pounds with a 6-6 wingspan, his measurements compare best to De'Aaron Fox, Monta Ellis and Brandon Knight at the same age, according to our database.

With Morant's style of play -- heavily predicated on using athleticism to get to the rim in transition, get fouled, move the defense and find teammates off the dribble -- I do have some concerns about how durable he'll be. The fact that he's currently out of commission after having knee surgery isn't doing much to quell those concerns for me.

Schmitz: Those are fair concerns. I do think we have to look at Morant through a different lens given his late-blooming status. According to Murray State staffers, he actually grew almost an inch after arriving on campus, and he's only a handful of years removed from tipping the scales at 140 pounds, so he's on a different trajectory than most 19-year-olds.

Although they play a different style, I worried about Trae Young's ability to make it through an 82-game season at 6-2, 178 pounds, yet he managed to play 81 games and more than 2,500 minutes while maintaining a fairly healthy free throw rate. The fact that Morant leans more on his athleticism than Young to score is undeniable, but like Young, Morant has his passing and basketball IQ to fall back on when the physicality of the NBA catches up to him -- something that often bailed Young out when his jumper went cold as a rookie.

Also, let's face it: While the playoffs are a grind, the way the NBA is officiated in the regular season has opened the door for speed and skill as opposed to brute force, which bodes well for a feathery guard like Morant, who played all 61 games and more than 1,100 minutes during his Murray State career.

I foresee Morant following a similar physical progression to Fox, who also weighed 170 pounds at the NBA combine when he was just six months younger than Morant is now. Despite some bumps and bruises as a rookie, Fox played 81 games and more than 2,500 minutes as a second-year player with little concern over how he'd hold up. While Morant could have dings as a rookie like Fox did, I don't foresee it being much of an issue beyond that.

2. Can Morant become an average NBA defender?

Givony: I love Morant's quickness, instincts and anticipation skills, things that give him plenty of room to grow defensively over time. Yet he was somewhat of a sieve on that end of the floor, even in the Ohio Valley Conference, which KenPom ranked 25th among 32 conferences in college basketball.

His effort left a lot to be desired this season, even in some of Murray State's biggest games, including the NCAA tournament loss to Florida State. There were too many possessions where he didn't get into any kind of stance at all, and he can be very lazy getting back on defense, fighting over screens and gambling excessively in the passing lanes.

For me, this is where the De'Aaron Fox comparisons come up a bit short. Fox made his reputation first and foremost on the defensive end. NBA coaches will hopefully help Morant eliminate a lot of the bad habits he picked up with his very casual approach, but there's no escaping the fact that he's a one-position player defensively who will have a difficult time switching onto bigger players, as almost every team in the NBA does extensively these days on pick-and-rolls.

My guess is that, early on in his NBA career, he's going to struggle quite a bit on this end.

Schmitz: There's no question that's an area Morant needs to improve in drastically. But what gives me hope about him eventually becoming a sound positional defender, on top of his athletic gifts and instincts, is the fight and resolve he showed at the Chris Paul Camp heading into his sophomore year. While I know it's a small window and he has a laundry list of bad habits to squash, Morant showed me that when he's shouldering less of an offensive load, he's more than capable.

At the time I wrote: "An up-and-down defender as a freshman, Morant showed his defensive potential here, rarely backing down from bigger NBA guards like De'Anthony Melton, using his quickness to stay in front and bounce to alter shots at the rim."

I was also impressed by his toughness in that setting, which he didn't always show at Murray State.

Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet are as tough as guards come, and they are outlier defenders for their size. But watching them exist on the floor together for stretches of the NBA Finals instills hope that you can indeed win without multipositional defenders at every position. While that's maybe an extreme example or an exception to the rule, the Grizzlies aren't exactly knocking on the door of the playoffs, so Morant has time to learn on the job, which his self-awareness and intangibles will allow him to do.

In my view, if he and Barrett develop into neutral defenders (something Barrett also has to work toward, despite his size), Morant's offensive upside exceeds Barrett's both as a scorer and playmaker.

3. Will Morant be able to score efficiently in the half court?

Givony: Morant is the best passer in this draft. He posted gaudy scoring numbers as well, with 26 points per 40 minutes on an excellent 62 true shooting percentage.

Digging deeper into the Synergy numbers and watching the film, there's a stark contrast between how effective he was in the half-court offense (.885 points per possession, 43 FG%) versus in transition (1.197, 68%).

Morant was one of the best open-court players we've seen in college basketball in some time. Accounting for the number of points and assists he generated (15.5 per game), he outscored 242 college basketball teams in transition on his own, which is astounding.

One of the downsides of Morant playing in the OVC is the fact that we had only one opportunity to see him against a top-35 defense all season, in the final game of his college career, a 90-62 loss to FSU. He shot just 3-of-15 from inside the arc in that game, as the Seminoles did a very good job of keeping him out of transition (especially when the game was competitive) and forced him to be a scorer in the half court. They went under every screen, stayed home on shooters and left huge swaths of space in the midrange while focusing on protecting the paint. After starting off with a barrage of pull-up 3-pointers, Morant came down to earth as the game moved on and really struggled with the length and physicality of Florida State's defense, having a difficult time finishing around the basket and not converting any of his midrange jumpers.

These are the areas where Morant is going to have to improve the most at the NBA level -- things that every small NBA guard has to master to be effective, including shooting off the dribble, finding an in-between game and finishing inside the paint in traffic. Morant hit 32 percent of his half-court pull-up jumpers this season, a decent rate that shows he's far from dead in the water in this area. And I think he is better than his numbers indicate. Some of this is due to shot selection, strength and the way he was guarded.

He can already create space effectively with his terrific handle and footwork, and he definitely has touch and range despite his unorthodox mechanics. Raising his release point and getting his shot off more quickly will be points of emphasis for him moving forward, as will improving his balance on midrange jumpers.

Slow-motion look at Ja Morant's shooting mechanics as Murray State prepares to take on Belmont. Morant is shooting 34.3% from 3 and 80.3% from the free throw line this season. pic.twitter.com/35KKbZoIqT

— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) March 9, 2019

His size also makes it difficult for him to finish in traffic at times. He converted just 51 percent of his shots inside the paint this season, which is a poor rate even when ignoring the level of competition. Improving his ability to play off one leg, finish with his right hand and continuing to drain a floater will be important, as will simply getting stronger.

Morant's casual approach works against him at times, which is why hiring the right coach in Memphis will be really important for him. He'll have some ugly games as a rookie, but the game comes so easily for him that he will eventually figure things out after a bit of a transition period. Looking at his trajectory from no-name high school recruit to the best point guard in college basketball, as well as all the intel we've gathered about his approach to the game, suggest that he has an elite work ethic and all the intangibles you look for in a franchise building block.

Schmitz: I do share some of the same concerns about his scoring efficiency as a rookie.

For the sake of comparison, Fox relied mostly on transition in college (30 percent of his offense) and also struggled to finish as a rookie, didn't get to the free throw line as often as he did in the NCAA and ended his NBA debut season with a 47.8 true shooting percentage. I think Morant will face some of those issues early on.

But Morant is a superior shooter and facilitator to Fox at the same age, allowing him to shift between his foot-on-the-gas style and a more cerebral play unlike few guards in the NBA. I also thought Morant showed quite a bit of progress in terms of his finishing creativity throughout the course of the season. He's a film junkie, and I think by his prime we'll talk about him as one of the league's premier finishers, with a pull-up 3 that's only going to continue to get better.

So I see most of Morant's shortcomings leveling out as he physically matures, whereas I'm not sure Barrett -- who ranked 79th in ESPN's top 100 in true shooting percentage -- will ever have Morant's type of passing feel, creativity, unselfishness, shiftiness, handle or touch, even if Barrett might be better suited to have an impact right away and fit the versatility of the NBA.

4. How does Morant fit with the Grizzlies?

Schmitz: I think Morant is the perfect guard to pair with Jaren Jackson Jr., moving the Grizzlies away from the grit-and-grind days and into a more modern style. Playing with a stretch big like Jackson (who shot 36 percent from 3-point range as a rookie) will surely help alleviate some of the concerns about his ability to score efficiently in the half court. Murray State ranked 142nd in the NCAA in 3-point percentage, according to KenPom, and the team had zero stretch big men on its roster, which is why it's no surprise Morant was corralled in the half court with all eyes on him.

Yet with Jackson, Morant has an agile big who can get up and down, provide spacing in pop situations or function like a lob target as a diver. Morant-Jackson transition drag screens will give defenses fits, and Jackson's ability to shoot and handle will give the Grizzlies creative ways to combat teams that dare Morant to shoot or funnel him to the rim, while providing Morant the driving lines he didn't have at Murray State. Jackson's defensive versatility and rim protection will also help Morant cover up some of his mistakes on that end of the floor as he gains experience. Memphis still needs to continue building out its roster and putting shooting around Morant, but he and Jackson figure to make up one of the best point guard-big man duos in the league sooner than later.

As far as Mike Conley is concerned, I don't think pairing the two is a solution long term. Because Morant has experience sharing the backcourt with another ball-dominant player in Jonathan Stark during his freshman season on a Murray State team that went 24-6 and made the tournament, it's not out of the question they could make it work in the interim. Morant would benefit from learning alongside the veteran guard for a year, and having another ball handler would help his immediate efficiency. But Ja isn't Ja without the ball in his hands, and the Grizzlies seemed set for a changing of the guard at the point guard spot prior to landing No. 2. I wouldn't expect Conley to be too difficult to move, either, given his production and soon-to-be monster expiring contract, opening the door for the Morant era.

If the Grizzlies can surround Morant and Jackson with versatile, two-way players who can space the floor, similarly to what the Hawks are trying to build around Young and John Collins, they could eventually develop into one of the league's more exciting young teams.