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NBA draft stock watch: Five breakout college players

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. -- For most NBA scouts, the month of August is dedicated to covering prestigious camps for an early look at draft prospects. Most important, scouts are able to see prospects outside of their NCAA systems, oftentimes competing against current NBA players -- an excellent barometer for future success.

We attended Chris Paul's Elite Guard Camp in Winston-Salem, which featured 23 NCAA and 24 high school guards. Camp counselors Grayson Allen, De'Anthony Melton, Jamal Murray, Josh Okogie, Devonte Graham and Harry Giles aso participated in morning session drill work and afternoon session live action.

The most hands-on of them all was none other than CP3 himself. Not only did Paul get up and down with the campers and impart in-game wisdom (and trash talk), he also led the group through an extensive film session on the nuances of pick-and-roll defense, ball-screen reads, and how to attack switches. Nearly every NBA team was represented in some capacity.

Which NBA prospects helped themselves the most? Here are our five standouts:


1. The intriguing long-term prospect

Ja Morant | 6-3 | Murray State | PG

The youngest collegiate prospect to take the floor, Morant turned heads with his freakish athleticism, toughness and all-around basketball instincts. At 6-foot-3 with a young 172-pound frame, the Murray State sophomore is a twitchy athlete who shifts gears with ease and explodes in a hurry, putting his head at the rim to catch lobs, fly in for putbacks or meet opponents mid-air for chase-down blocks.

We weren't able to see much of Morant's ball-screen game or shot creation, but the 18-year-old gladly adjusted to playing more off the ball. An up-and-down defender as a freshman, Morant showed his defensive potential here, rarely backing down from bigger NBA guards like Melton, using his quickness to stay in front and bounce to alter shots at the rim.

This was Morant's first high-profile camp, and he showed enough promise to be considered the most intriguing long-term prospect in attendance. He flew under the recruiting radar largely because of his thin frame and lack of a perimeter jumper, something he's still working through.

He sports a low and slow 3-ball, especially off the dribble, as he attempted only 23 pull-ups in 32 games last season while finishing in the 20th percentile on catch-and-shoots. Although the ball comes out with decent rotation, he's a fairly reluctant shooter and isn't always able to showcase his tight handle, slithery slashing and passing instincts. He's a smart ball-mover who can whip passes around with either hand, playing a fairly unselfish brand of basketball. Morant's feel for the game, athleticism and competitiveness allow him to have an impact all over the floor, evident when he notched a triple-double against Eastern Illinois last season and averaged 14.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and 7.2 assists (to only 2.9 turnovers) per 40 minutes as a freshman.

Morant was a popular under-the-radar freshman prospect among scouts, though they are still figuring out what exactly he does at the NBA level. But all the ingredients are there for a breakout sophomore season and an eventual spot on draft boards. As we saw with a prospect like Zhaire Smith, athletes tend to rise throughout the pre-draft process -- especially those with toughness and feel.


2. The hiding-in-plain-sight prospect

Ty Jerome | 6-5 | Virginia | PG

Jerome shined as the best pure basketball player at the camp. With a minus wingspan, undefined frame and below-average athleticism, Jerome -- an RSCI top-50 recruit -- hasn't always been widely viewed as a surefire NBA prospect. Virginia's style of play doesn't help matters, but the 21-year-old guard reminded NBA scouts why he should be considered a legitimate prospect with his play outside of his structured college system.

He made shots off the catch and the dribble from well beyond the NBA line, sporting the most simple, compact mechanics of any prospect here. Jerome has the makings of a high-level shooter, which will allow him to play off the ball as well. Jerome has an outstanding feel for the game, constantly moving the ball, setting screens, vocalizing offensive mismatches and using both sides of the floor as a playmaker. He's not flashy, but he's extremely unselfish and against-the-grain in his deliveries, showing all the makings of a high-level floor general (evident by his 2.44 assist-to-turnover ratio last season).

Jerome struggles to get by athletes, as he plays the game upright and lacks a degree of flexibility. He doesn't draw fouls or finish against length, but he can play off closeouts instinctually and does an outstanding job of using his size to get to his spots and finish with runners as the eighth-most efficient floater finisher in the country (minimum of 60 attempts). He can also play out of the post both as a scorer and facilitator.

Defensively, Jerome isn't particularly fluid or agile, which is reason for skepticism when tasked with checking explosive guards. Yet he's extremely competitive, knowing when to get into weak ball handlers or give himself enough space to contain in the half court. He's a vocal defender who has a great feel off the ball and consistently plays with an edge, even going at Chris Paul on occasion. Virginia staff members and teammates rave about his approach to the game, and with combo forward De'Andre Hunter expected to gain interest in the 2019 lottery, Jerome will have no shortage of NBA eyes on him next season. More and more guards in his mold have found ways to stick in the NBA, and thanks to his impact on winning, Jerome is a prime candidate to find his way into the league sooner rather than later.


3. The rising underclassman

Tremont Waters | 5-11 | LSU | PG

Although physically underwhelming with an average frame and wingspan, Waters impressed as one of the most skilled shot-creators to take the floor, making deep 3s off the bounce and slithering his way past defenders with his herky-jerky style. Waters has never-ending confidence from 3, which held true even with NBA players defending him, as he covers a tremendous amount of ground with step-backs to his left. His pull-up sets up the rest of his game as he plays off of hang dribbles and does an excellent job changing speeds and directions on a dime, eventually finishing with floaters or kicking out to open shooters. He has impressive passing instincts and vision when he chooses to unleash them, but Waters too often dribbles the air out of the ball before hoisting up a contested pull-up. He's too loose with the ball when he does get a piece of the paint, struggling to finish against legitimate rim protectors as well.

Waters had some tremendous moments as a freshman -- pasting 39 points on Marquette, 27 and 11 on Arkansas, and 28 and nine on Vanderbilt -- but was also the beneficiary of endless freedom and volume. It will be interesting to see how Waters fares next season with a new-look group and winning expectations, when he will be asked to balance scoring and playmaking.

On the defensive end, Waters has little margin for error, struggling to contain penetration against bigger guards. Given his height, he'll have to be borderline special to stick at the highest level. If Waters can lead the Tigers to a successful season in the SEC while remaining efficient, he'll certainly further improve his standing among NBA scouts.


4. The low-major breakout

Justin Wright-Foreman | 6-1 | Hofstra | PG

One of the camp's lesser-known prospects, Wright-Foreman earned his spot on NBA scouts' senior watch lists with his flashes of talent. The 20-year-old stood out with his dynamic scoring ability and intriguing physical profile. While not overly tall at 6-1, he has a strong frame, long arms, big hands, and impressive two-foot bounce in space. Wright-Foreman was a lightly-recruited high school prospect, but he's an aggressive bucket-getter who can get it going from the perimeter or explode to the rim with physicality.

Wright-Foreman was one of only four NCAA players to attempt at least 215 pull-up jumpers last season, and he scored a remarkable 1.074 points per possession on such shots, head and shoulders more efficient than his peers. He finished in the 88th percentile as a pick-and-roll scorer and 89th percentile as an isolation scorer, which bodes well for a potential role as a bench scoring guard at the next level. He's a big-time shotmaker who also plays with great energy on both ends of the floor, at least in the camp setting. While the Colonial Conference isn't exactly full of stout defenses, Wright-Foreman is fairly battle-tested having faced Dayton, Clemson, Auburn and Villanova all last season. He has made a big jump each season at Hofstra as he went from averaging 1.3 points as a freshman to 18.1 as a sophomore to 24.4 as a junior.

Wright-Foreman isn't short on flaws, as he's a catch-and-hold player who doesn't have much of a right hand, lacking a degree of feel and savvy as a playmaker. There are a lot of scoring guards in his mold who haven't been able to stick in the NBA, and teams will want to see him become a reliable facilitator and teammate.


5. The summer bucket-getter

Lamar Peters | 6-0 | Mississippi State | PG

Another summer, another camp filled with buckets by Peters. The Mississippi State product turned heads at the 2017 Adidas Nations, putting defenders on skates with his slippery, mix-you-up style of play on his way to a standout performance. Peters generated quite a bit of buzz heading into his sophomore season -- one that was riddled with disappointment, as his scoring average dipped and 3-point shooting plummeted below 30 percent. Peters finished the season in the 18th percentile as a half-court scorer, turning the ball over on more than 20 percent of his total possessions. The New Orleans native still had some big games, but he was wildly inconsistent, with three scoreless contests, including an 0-for-11 dud early in the season.

But Peters thrives in an open camp setting, and he took advantage of so-so perimeter defense and no rim protection. He blew by good NBA defenders like Melton on multiple occasions, and showed his shifty game and dynamic shot creation while making enough perimeter shots to re-ignite some hope among scouts. When he has his jumper going, Peters is nearly impossible to keep in front. Of course, the ultra-confident guard still had his wild moments and all-glass pull-up jumpers, playing a style that can make coaches nervous.

There are a lot of guards in Peters' mold in the G-League and China, but even with some of his shortcomings, he reminded scouts of his tremendous natural talent level and potential should he continue to fine-tune his jumper and decision-making as a 20-year-old junior.


Scouting the field

Here are our scouting notes on 11 more potential draft prospects at the camp

• 23-year-old Texas Tech grad transfer Matt Mooney put together a strong camp, showing off his toughness, feel for the game, scoring instincts and versatility as a strong-framed, long-armed 6-3 guard/wing. Spending a lot of time playing on the wing last season with South Dakota, Mooney had little issue operating off the ball, constantly finding gaps in the defense and scoring by way of smarts and savvy. He can play pick-and-roll and is a capable shooter with crisp rotation, even if he doesn't have the quickest release. More of a powerful athlete than a wiggly shot creator, Mooney's do-it-all game should fit well in Texas Tech's positionless, motion system. The Red Raiders see him as one of their top two players next season, using him anywhere from point guard to small forward. He's also a competitive defender who has a nose for the ball.

• Although he struggled defensively, 19-year-old Markus Howard put together some impressive sequences on offense, making shots off the dribble and using the threat of his pull-up to change speeds and get into the paint. He's a versatile shooter with outstanding touch and developing savvy around the rim. Still more scorer than playmaker, he has room to improve his court sense and ability to create for others. Howard has done a really nice job with his frame, trimming some body fat and adding more burst to his game. His -'0 wingspan and average athleticism hinder his NBA intrigue, but he figures to build on his monster sophomore season with another highly productive junior campaign at Marquette.

Lindell Wigginton, a 20-year-old Iowa State scoring guard, showed both sides of the coin. On the bright side, his shooting mechanics looked much more compact and consistent, as he made rise-and-fire style pull-up jumpers with regularity over the course of the two days we evaluated, which wasn't always the case last season. He's bouncy off two feet in space and aggressively attacked smaller guards in the half court. However, he still plays a fairly inefficient game, doesn't see the floor on the move and offers little resistance defensively. There are a lot of guards in Wigginton's mold in the G League, so he'll have to continue becoming a more reliable playmaker in the half court.

• One of the highest-rated prospects coming into the camp, Nickeil Alexander-Walker made it through only one day before suffering a left shoulder injury and sitting out. Looking physically stronger at around 6-6 with broad shoulders and long arms, the Virginia Tech sophomore made shots when set, showed ambidexterity around the rim and proved his worth as a versatile defender for stretches. As was the case at times last year with the Hokies, though, he looked fairly one-dimensional in the half court, struggling to break down set defenses and explode in a crowd. While long, he lacks a degree of burst with the ball, and he's clearly most comfortable in catch-and-shoot situations. His mechanics also break down a bit when heavily contested, and Alexander-Walker can stand to add a little more versatility to his game. But even in limited action you could see what made him one of the better long-term prospects here, with his physical profile, shooting stroke and sound overall feel for the game.

• Davidson's 6-4 shotmaker Kellan Grady -- who turned in a monster freshman season -- looked fairly ordinary through the four sessions we attended. With nice size, decent length and shooting touch, it's no surprise that Grady had some huge games as a 20-year-old freshman. He does a nice job catching in rhythm and rising into 3s, releasing the ball with rotation and touch. He can also create some space with step-backs in quick-action situations or attack a closeout with long strides to the rim, finishing effectively. When asked to operate on the ball, though, Grady struggled. He's not overly shifty and is more of an off-guard at this stage. He would really benefit from expanding his ball-screen scoring and playmaking to avoid being pigeonholed as a one-dimensional shooter, even if he showed strong all-around scoring instincts at Davidson.

• While competitive defensively, Boston College guard Ky Bowman proved he still has quite a bit of room to develop skill-wise. He really needs to find some consistency with his perimeter jumper, especially off the dribble, as he shoots somewhat of a knuckleball with unnatural rotation. Although a career 38.8 percent 3-point shooter, the 21-year-old Bowman isn't quite talented enough with the ball to beat set defenses without being a shooting threat. Overly aggressive at times in the past, Bowman didn't stand out here and will have an adjustment without backcourt mate Jerome Robinson, whose scoring ability freed things up.

• Powerful 20-year-old Purdue guard Carsen Edwards struggled to make shots and didn't stand out as much as you'd expect. Edwards, who tested the waters last season, also looked fairly pedestrian at the 2018 draft combine and will have to regain momentum next season. When Edwards is making shots, he's intriguing as a bench sorer who can get going in a hurry and has the frame and length (6-6 wingspan) to defend his position. Given the versatility with which he shot the ball last season, it's sensible to chalk Edwards' shooting woes up to simply a down camp, and it's often tough to get into a rhythm in live action with five other point guards vying for the ball. But Edwards' showing did bring to light how he still has considerable room to improve as an on-ball facilitator and finisher in traffic.

Jon Elmore wasn't able to fully unleash the creativity he has displayed at the collegiate level. Used much more as a spot-up shooter in this setting, the 22-year-old Elmore proved to be a bit streaky despite unwavering confidence. Elmore whips passes around instinctually and pushes in transition, but he can be a bit erratic with his decisions at times, and there's no doubt that he benefits from the way Marshall plays. With that said, the skilled 6-3 lead guard should put up even bigger numbers as a senior, potentially earning high-level overseas offers in the process.

• One of the strongest guards in attendance at 6-5, 200 pounds, Xavier's Quentin Goodin didn't move the needle. He looked most comfortable as a straight-line driver, using his powerful frame to get to the rim in space. Gooden can also make a standstill 3 with decent mechanics, but he's a fairly reluctant shooter and average ball handler in shot-creation situations. Gooden certainly has the physical tools to compete, but his skill level remains a work in progress.

• Appalachian State's Ronshad Shabazz was the most physically imposing guard in attendance at 6-5, 220 pounds with wide shoulders and strong legs. The Raleigh native showed defensive versatility, shotmaking potential and the ability to play with the ball a little bit. Shabazz is a streaky shooter with movement at the top of his jumper and a so-so feel for the game too often icing out teammates. He's also more powerful than freaky explosive, which is part of the reason he holds a 43.4 2-point percentage for his career in the Sun Belt. But given his age and physicality, Shabazz should turn in a strong senior year, earn a PIT invite and receive considerable interest in Europe.

Quinndary Weatherspoon showed his limitations as a shot-creator, with the game of a wing and the size of a 2-guard (6-4, strong frame, decent length). Weatherspoon is best as a spot-up shooter and straight-line slasher. When asked to do anything with the ball, he really struggled. As he enters his senior season at Mississippi State, it's important for Weatherspoon to rediscover his shooting stroke (29.2 percent from 3 last season) and continue evolving as a playmaker. Although he didn't show much versatility here, Weatherspoon can add value in a poor man's Gary Harris mold.