Will new head coach Frank Vogel be able to turn around a Los Angeles Lakers' defense that was only average last season?
When Vogel guided his Indiana Pacers teams to back-to-back Eastern Conference finals matchups against his new star player, LeBron James, and the Miami Heat in 2013 and 2014, the Pacers were built largely on elite defense. Indiana led the NBA in defensive rating in both of those regular seasons.
During two seasons as coach of the Orlando Magic after being fired in Indiana, however, Vogel was unable to recreate that defensive success. The Magic were worse than league average defensively in both of Vogel's seasons at the helm.
Which is a more telling indicator of how the Lakers might perform under Vogel? Let's take a look.
Vogel's Pacers forced opponents into low-value shots
Led by Vogel, Indiana built its defense around the emerging understanding that the most valuable shots in basketball come at the rim and from beyond the 3-point line. The Pacers encouraged 7-foot-2 center Roy Hibbert to stay close to the rim, dropping on pick-and-rolls and rarely straying from the paint against opposing centers comfortable from midrange.
Aided by Hibbert's work to master the new defensive philosophy of "verticality," allowing defenders to make contact with ball handlers in midair so long as the defenders' arms remain straight up vertically, this strategy allowed Indiana's long-limbed perimeter defenders to stay home on shooters rather than helping in the paint.
The net result was that the Pacers gave up the fewest high-value shots in the league in 2012-13, forcing opponents into the most frequent midrange attempts of any team, according to NBA Advanced Stats. In 2013-14, the first season for which camera-tracking data are available for all games, Second Spectrum's shot quality measure for Indiana opponents (quantified shot quality, or qSQ, which accounts for the location and type of shot and proximity of nearby defenders) was second-lowest behind that of the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs.
Although the Pacers were unable to overcome James and the Heat, they pushed them to seven games in the 2013 conference finals and posted the East's best record in the 2013-14 regular season before losing 4-2 in that spring's conference finals.
The seeds of Indiana's downturn were planted in the 2014 opening round, when the No. 8 seed Atlanta Hawks -- just 38-44 in the regular season -- took them the distance. Atlanta center Pero Antic stretched the Pacers' defense to its breaking point by drawing Hibbert out to the 3-point line. Antic shot just 12 percent on 3s in the series, but the move created space for teammates to attack the rim.
As stretch 5s became increasingly common in the NBA, planting Hibbert in the paint became more difficult. His playing time declined from 29.7 minutes per game in 2013-14, when he finished runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year, to 25.3 minutes the following season. Without injured star Paul George, Indiana's defense declined to eighth in the league, and the Pacers missed the playoffs.
By 2015-16, Hibbert had been traded to the Lakers as Indiana reoriented around the quicker Ian Mahinmi. Despite slipping to 11th in opponent shot quality, according to qSQ, the Pacers returned to third in the league in defensive rating. Nonetheless, Vogel was fired after Indiana lost to the No. 2 seed Toronto Raptors in a seven-game series in the opening round of the playoffs.
Vogel couldn't recreate defense in Orlando
Part of the reason Pacers president Larry Bird felt comfortable moving on from Vogel was the credit he gave to assistant coach Dan Burke for Indiana's defensive success.
"You've got to win with your defense, and Dan's proven that over the years his defenses get things done," Bird told the Indianapolis Star. "A few years ago, when we were winning and getting to the Eastern Conference finals, we were guarding people, and that's what we've got to do. I'm not saying Frank didn't have something to do with that neither, but Dan's always been my guy, and I hope he's here forever."
The results of the breakup between Vogel and the Pacers seemed to validate Bird's assessment. With Burke assisting Nate McMillan, who was promoted to succeed Vogel, Indiana posted the NBA's third-best defensive rating this season after two average campaigns (15th in 2016-17 and 12th in 2017-18).
Meanwhile, Vogel's Magic struggled to take the next step defensively. They dropped from 17th in defensive rating under predecessor Scott Skiles in 2015-16 to 24th in Vogel's first season in Orlando, then improved marginally to 20th in 2017-18. That failure to improve cost Vogel his job with the Magic.
Granted, Vogel didn't inherit the same kind of defensive talent in Orlando, where starting center Nikola Vucevic has never been the quality rim protector Hibbert was in his prime. But Vogel's Magic were unable to prevent opponents from getting to the paint, giving up the league's fifth-highest percentage of attempts in the restricted area in 2016-17 and sixth-highest in 2017-18.
Moreover, replacement Steve Clifford was able to engineer a defensive turnaround that got Orlando to the playoffs this season with largely the same core. The Magic ranked eighth in defensive rating in 2018-19, using a formula similar to Vogel's with the Pacers, giving up the NBA's fifth-lowest percentage of combined shots from 3-point range or in the restricted area.
Will Vogel's formula work with the Lakers?
On the surface, the roster Vogel inherits in L.A. looks more like the ones he coached in Orlando than his Indiana teams. In particular, the Lakers are still looking for their defensive anchor in the middle. Center JaVale McGee was among the league leaders in rim protection, allowing just 52 percent shooting to opponents within 5 feet, fifth-best among players who defended at least four such shots per game, according to Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats. Yet the Lakers were far worse defensively with McGee on the court because of his tendency to commit shooting fouls and leave the defensive glass uncovered in pursuit of blocked shots.
McGee is an unrestricted free agent, as are backups Tyson Chandler and Mike Muscala, which makes a defense-minded center a priority for the Lakers in free agency this summer.
On the plus side, the Lakers have good size and length on the perimeter, starting with 6-foot-6 point guard Lonzo Ball. The Lakers gave up 4.2 fewer points per 100 possessions with Ball on the court and slipped badly on defense after he suffered the severe ankle sprain that ended his season. However, Vogel will also have to overcome second-year forward Kyle Kuzma's defensive shortcomings and LeBron James' tendency at this stage of his career to coast defensively.
The fit between Vogel and new assistant Jason Kidd, handpicked by management, could also be awkward. Kidd's defenses with the Milwaukee Bucks were the stylistic opposite of Vogel's best defenses, sacrificing high-value attempts from 3 or at the rim in pursuit of steals. It's unclear whether the coaches can merge their disparate defensive visions. As a result of that and the personnel Vogel will have at his disposal in L.A., I'm skeptical that the Lakers will follow in the footsteps of Vogel's Pacers teams defensively.