What moves are next for the Los Angeles Lakers?
This team faces big questions heading into the offseason even after hiring Frank Vogel as head coach -- including a potential Anthony Davis trade, free-agent targets and what to do with the No. 4 pick in the 2019 NBA draft.
Let's look ahead to the crucial decisions facing the Lakers this summer, and the best paths forward.
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The timeline with New Orleans and Anthony Davis
As we outlined in February, a blockbuster AD trade before July 1 is not feasible for L.A. based on a combination of roster restrictions (15-player limit) and expiring player contracts for the 2018-19 season. While the Lakers could have included Rajon Rondo and Lance Stephenson to make the money work back in February, those players are now off limits because of their free-agent status.
The window in between the end of the season and the June draft allows the Lakers to develop a strategy, timeline and a set of principles to follow:
Patience in evaluating the roster
Take a deep breath and regroup. There are four reasons to not feel pressure to move right away in trade talks:
1. There is no 3 p.m. deadline.
Unlike when Davis demanded a trade before the deadline, Los Angeles is not on the clock to make a deal that is not on its timeline. The Lakers can take their time leading up to the draft and free agency.
2. The emotional element doesn't (or shouldn't) apply in the offseason.
Midseason trade discussions can be dictated by a knee-jerk reaction to losing three out of four games, a player being injured, standings shifts or role changes. In the offseason, these factors mostly go away.
3. The No. 4 pick now adds serious value to a trade package.
4. The hiring of David Griffin in New Orleans.
Expect the new head of basketball operations to take a conservative approach and weigh all options when it comes to Davis. Griffin will take the next month leading up to the draft combine building out a front office and beginning the early stages of forming a plan for 2019-20.
Dictate the terms of the trade
Despite the Celtics entering the Davis sweepstakes starting July 1 -- and possibly New York based on its fortune in the draft lottery -- allowing the Pelicans to dictate the trade talks should be a non-starter.
Gone are the days when the Lakers were forced to take back Solomon Hill as cap relief or required to include every single young player on the roster. The Lakers' trade proposal for AD now should be limited to:
Kyle Kuzma and Lonzo Ball
2019 lottery pick
2021 unprotected first-round pick
Because the Lakers are using cap space as a buffer, their room would be reduced from $32.5 million to $21 million. Despite the eliminated max slot, the Lakers' roster would consist of James, Davis, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, Moritz Wagner, Isaac Bonga and the remaining room to build out the roster in free agency. That cap space would increase to only $30 million if James and Davis are all that's left on the team.
Set a June 30 deadline to agree on a trade
Don't allow the Davis trade talks to disrupt free agency. The one thing the Lakers cannot do is become a bystander in July, waiting for the Pelicans to decide what trade package is to their liking.
If they do, the All-NBA class of free agents will be off the board while the Lakers are sitting in a holding pattern. Even if the trade isn't official until after July 1, the Lakers either should have a deal in place or move on.
The free-agent options
There are four scenarios for the Lakers when it comes to how they approach cap space this offseason:
AD and the max slot
Here's how L.A. can acquire Davis and also have enough money to sign a player like Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson or Kawhi Leonard.
The Lakers would need to renounce all of their free agents.
Use cap space to sign a $32.7 million max player (they would not have enough to sign a player like Kevin Durant and add Davis).
Send up to $22 million in salary (the No. 4 pick, future draft assets, Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram) to new Orleans in an AD trade. This would have to occur 30 days after the draft pick signs his contract.
Remember that rosters in the offseason expand to 20 players, allowing the Pelicans to take back an unbalanced number. The Lakers would have the $4.7 million room midlevel and minimum exception available to sign 11 players.
While many can make the comparison that this would be similar to when James signed with Miami in 2010, keep in mind that James will be 35 in December. Building a top-heavy roster that features three players who earn $90 million surrounded by minimum players does not give the Lakers a safety net in case of an injury.
The All-NBA player
There was a clear message sent last summer when the Lakers elected to sign free agents to one-year contracts after James committed: preserve cap space until 2019. But can this team still draw an A-list free agent?
We will learn in early July what type of recruiter James is.
Two-year commitments in free agency
There is a reason why the Pacers stayed competitive after the 2017 Paul George trade and are now a top-four team in the Eastern Conference despite losing Victor Oladipo for the season: They made a two-year investment with their free-agent and trade targets.
Instead of treating the likes of Bojan Bogdanovic and Darren Collison as rentals, Indiana signed both players to multiyear contracts but with a team option for the second season. The contract structure gave Indiana the ability to retain financial flexibility. That same model is what the Lakers should follow if they strike out on their star chase, but they should guarantee the second year of deals.
For example, Los Angeles can split its $32.5 million among the likes of TJ McConnell, Danny Green, Bogdanovic and Dewayne Dedmon -- improving the roster now, keeping flexibility in 2021 and also retaining the young players to use down the road in a potential trade.
The one-year approach (again)
The Lakers could spin future cap flexibility as a reason to pursue one-year deals again. However, there's a significant dip in quality in the 2020 free-agent class.
Davis and Draymond Green are the headliners of the group, along with former Raptors teammates Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.
Of course, the Lakers can play the waiting game with the goal of signing Davis when he becomes a free agent in 2020, but James will be 36 and entering the season on an expiring contract.
Summer salary-cap and roster breakdown
Resources available to build the roster:
The lottery
Cash to use in a trade or at the draft
$32.5 million in cap space
Room midlevel exception
Tradable contracts
Restrictions and dates to watch
• LeBron James has a 15 percent trade kicker in his contract. The bonus is currently valued at $0 because his 2018-19 salary is the maximum allowed. However, because his 2019-20 salary is below $38.15 million, James would receive a $1.4 million bonus if he is traded (highly unlikely).
• The trade to acquire Bonga's draft rights has left the Lakers with $3.7 million cash to use up until June 30.
• Jemerrio Jones cannot be traded until July 1. The Lakers must guarantee his $1.4 million contract for it to have any trade value.
• The Lakers have until June 29 to extend one-year qualifying offers to Alex Caruso and Johnathan Williams. Because Caruso signed a two-year contract, the offer would be for $1.6 million with $80,000 protected. Caruso has a $1.6 million cap hold and the Lakers would still have a $32.7 million max slot available without renouncing him.
Extension candidates
The decision to enter extension talks with Ingram will come down to several complicating factors.
Do the Lakers consider the former No. 2 pick in 2016 as part of the future, a tradeable asset or both? On the surface, Ingram is worthy of an extension. However, with the recent diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis in his right arm, any extension talk with Ingram will need to be tabled until he's back on the court following surgery.
The draft
The Lakers entered the lottery at No. 11 but jumped all the way to No. 4
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz see the Lakers picking if they hold onto their pick:
No. 4 (own): Darius Garland | G | Vanderbilt