Will another second-round playoff loss force the Philadelphia 76ers to go in a different direction?
After losing to the Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference semifinals, the 76ers will face major questions surrounding free agents Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris and JJ Redick, as well as head coach Brett Brown.
Will all of the core pieces return? And should they?
Now eliminated from the postseason, let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing the 76ers this offseason.
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The future of Butler and Harris
Bulter and Harris are both free agents who are eligible to sign five-year, $189.7 million contracts to remain in Philadelphia. Allowing the market to dictate a more team-friendly salary than that is a risky proposition. Get cute with a contract offer for Harris (closer to four years, $110 million?) and the forward could be lost with nothing to show for the all-in trade except cap space.
Here is the max salary breakdown for both players if they were to stay or sign with a team using cap space.
The market for each is different. While Butler is more proven, teams view the guard as a No. 2 option in free agency. Butler will turn 30 in September and has averaged 33 minutes over eight seasons. This is not to say that Butler won't earn more than the four-year, $110 million extension he turned down in Minnesota. He should get there. But the market might dry up quickly if he is waiting for that full max.
On the other hand, Harris could command serious attention on July 1. The 26-year-old has value among teams with cap space (such as the Brooklyn Nets) based on his ability to stretch the floor at a position of need. The big question for teams: Are they comfortable paying $141 million for a player who has never appeared in an All-Star Game and is considered more a No. 2 option? As free agency has taught us before, Harris needs only one team to say yes.
If Butler and Harris walk, that would put the 76ers in the same position as last summer, with cap space (about $56 million) to use in free agency to build around Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. But now there would be glaring holes at shooting guard and both forward spots -- plus a lack of bench depth. Philly is also short on its stable of draft assets after past trades. Even with Simmons and Embiid, this would become a team fighting for a playoff spot rather than a place in the NBA Finals.
Coming out of free agency with anything less than one of Butler or Harris will be a disaster.
Going 1-for-2
What would the roster look like if the price for Butler is too rich and only Harris is brought back? Removing the $30.7 million Butler cap hold leaves the 76ers right at the salary cap when taking into account the $65.4 million in remaining free-agent holds.
Philly has a couple options from there:
Leave the holds of Harris, Redick and T.J. McConnell against the cap, and then create up to $23 million in room by renouncing their remaining free agents and waiving Jonathon Simmons. That would be good enough to shore up the small forward position (maybe pursue Bojan Bogdanovic?) and still have money left for the bench.
Let Redick walk and make the same moves. Philadelphia could get up to $38 million in room, but it would be weak on the wing.
One point of the in-season trades for Butler and Harris was to avoid the uncertainty of free agency. Both of these scenarios would run counter to that strategy,
Is there room for Redick?
The shooting guard has been an insurance policy for Philadelphia the past two offseasons. After signing a one-year, $23 million contract in 2017, Redick followed it up last July with a one-year, $12.3 million contract. Both deals gave the 76ers flexibility when it came to cap space and earned Redick a balloon payment of $35.3 million over two seasons.
The back-to-back contracts came with early Bird rights, allowing the 76ers to start his salary anywhere from the league minimum up to $21.5 million. The early Bird rights let Philadelphia sign Butler and Harris and then exceed the cap to bring back Redick. Despite turning 35 in June, Redick has averaged 75 games played the past five seasons and he brings necessary floor spacing to this team.
If Butler and Harris return and Redick's salary is about $10 million, Philadelphia could use up to $7.7 million of the midlevel exception, sign four players at the minimum and still stay under the tax. Without Redick on the team, Philadelphia would have only the $9.3 million midlevel exception to replace him.
Building out the bench
If Butler, Harris and Redick (on a $10 million contract) return, Philadelphia is projected to be $12.5 million under the tax with six roster spots open.
Here are their options from there:
Free agents with Bird rights
McConnell and Boban Marjanovic both have Bird rights, allowing Philadelphia to sign either player up to a starting salary of $27 million.
Despite playing only limited minutes during the playoffs, McConnell could be an option to bring back if the price is within Philly's budget. The backup guard is projected to earn in the range of $3-5 million. Marjanovic proved in the Brooklyn series that he is effective with the right matchup, but the Raptors made him look like more of a liability.
Non-Bird free agents
The Sixers have fewer options with Mike Scott, James Ennis and Greg Monroe. Philadelphia is restricted to offering Scott $5.0 million, Ennis $2.0 million and Monroe $2.8 million.
The draft
The 76ers can take the less expensive approach and stockpile their roster in the draft. Besides having their own first-round pick, Philadelphia also has four second-round picks. The cost of having all five players on the roster would be $5.7 million. The team also has the draft rights of 2017 first-round pick Anzejs Pacecniks. The 23-year-old center would have a $2.1 million cap hit if he is brought over from Europe.
The future finances
Even if Philadelphia avoids the tax in 2019-20, the penalty is coming if this group returns.
Here is a conservative projection for the Sixers' finances for the next four seasons:
1. Max for Butler and Harris. Two-year, $20 million for Redick. Midlevel, minimums and picks fill out the roster.
2. Max contract for Simmons, minimum players fill out roster.
3. Minimum players and 2021 first-rounder fill out roster.
4. Minimum players and 2021 first-rounder fill out roster.
Staying out of the luxury tax in 2019-20 would keep the 76ers out of the repeater tax in 2022-23. If Philadelphia becomes a tax team next season, the projected tax will increase from $58.5 million to $82.1 million in 2022-23.
The Ben Simmons extension
Selected with the No. 1 pick in 2016, Simmons will have a $24.3 million cap hold if he hits restricted free agency in 2020, $4.7 million less than his potential $29 million max salary. So even if Butler or Harris walk, an extension decision on Simmons will not come down to preserving flexibility. Instead, the Sixers have to decide if they're ready to commit $168 million to Simmons after his two full seasons in the NBA.
Waiting until restricted free agency would come with a risk. Despite having the ability to match any offer sheet, Simmons could sign a short-term contract with a different team, allowing him to enter free agency in 2022 unrestricted.
If Simmons does sign a five-year max extension, he would join select company. Only seven players have done so since 2014: Karl-Anthony Towns, Devin Booker, Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard and Kyrie Irving.
Simmons and the Sixers could also negotiate language into the extension as part of the Rose rule. By meeting All-NBA stipulations, Simmons could become eligible for a five-year, $202 million extension.
We saw that strategy with the Embiid extension back in 2017. However, Embiid was eligible for only 30 percent of the cap if he earned All-NBA first-team -- not second or third. The 76ers would have the ability to adjust the percentage increase (from 25 percent to 30 percent) based on the level of All-NBA team in a Simmons deal.
Summer cap breakdown
Note: Jimmy Butler has a player option but is projected to opt out
Philadelphia enters the offseason with $42 million in committed salary and nine free agents. The combined free-agent holds place the 76ers over the salary cap. Despite the high cost, Philadelphia still projects to stay under the $132 million luxury tax threshold (without Marjanovic, McConnell and Scott).
Allowing Butler to walk and bringing back Harris and Redick would leave the 76ers with $25 million in cap space. The maximum amount of room Philadelphia can have is $61 million, but that leaves only Embiid, Simmons, Zhaire Smith, Jonah Bolden and their first-round pick on the roster.
Draft assets
Cash to buy draft picks
Own free agents
Cap exceptions
Dates to watch and restrictions
• Expect Butler to opt out of his $19.8 million contract for 2019-20. Butler has until June 29 to exercise his option.
• Ennis -- a valuable contributor for Philly in the playoffs -- is also expected to opt out of his $1.84 million contract for 2019-20.
• Jonathon Simmons has $1 million guaranteed with the remaining $4.7 million solidified if he is not waived by July 1. One disadvantage with the July 1 trigger date: The 76ers won't know if they need the savings for cap space or avoiding the tax.
• With four second-round picks that are expected to be up for sale, Philadelphia cannot receive more than $2.7 million in a trade the night of the draft. Philadelphia can agree to a trade the night of the draft and make the trade official on July 6 when the new calendar year begins. The 76ers also sent out $220,000 in two separate trades (Denver and Toronto) and can receive up to $5 million in any deal.
• In order to sign former first-round pick Furkan Korkmaz, Philadelphia is restricted to offering a contract that cannot exceed the 2019-20 team option that was declined ($2 million).
The draft assets
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Philadelphia selecting in June:
No. 24 (own): Matisse Thybulle | F | Washington
No. 33 (via Cleveland): Admiral Schofield | SF/PF | Tennessee
No. 34 (via Chicago): Bruno Fernando | C | Maryland
No. 42 (via Sacramento): Chuma Okeke | SF/PF | Auburn
No. 54 (own): Miye Oni | SF | Yale
As part of the Tobias Harris trade, Philadelphia will send the LA Clippers a top-14 protected first in 2020. The pick will rollover to 2021 (top-14 protected) or 2022 (top-14 protected). If the first is not transferred, Philadelphia will send second-rounders in 2023 and 2024.
The 76ers will also have a 2020 first-rounder from Oklahoma City (top-20 protected). The pick will turn into second-rounders in 2022 and 2023 if not conveyed.