After Wednesday's loss to the Denver Nuggets dropped the Lakers 6.5 games out of a playoff spot with 17 to play, coach Luke Walton said Thursday that James' workload will be monitored the rest of the season. That was followed by Saturday's news that forward Brandon Ingram is expected to miss the rest of the season after being diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder and that point guard Lonzo Ball, sidelined by a Grade 3 ankle sprain since January 19, will reportedly not return this season.
With two starters out and LeBron's minutes being managed, what does the rest of the regular season hold for the Lakers? And how will that set up a crucial summer as they try to build a championship contender around James? Let's take a look.
Lakers incentivized to lose games
With the playoffs almost certainly out of the picture, every loss improves the Lakers' positioning heading into the NBA draft lottery. This season's changes to the lottery odds reduced the incentive for teams to have the worst record in the league, but as a byproduct, they also served to increase the benefit for moving up a spot or two in the middle of the pre-lottery order -- relevant now for the Lakers.
Entering Saturday's action, the Lakers' 30-35 record was tied with the Charlotte Hornets and Minnesota Timberwolves for 10th-worst in the NBA. Realistically, the Lakers will probably finish with a worse record than the Hornets, who are still in playoff contention in the Eastern Conference. But whether the Lakers slide to 11th or can move up a spot or two in the pre-lottery order could have a substantial impact on their chances of claiming one of the top four picks.
Finishing with the 11th-worst record in the league translates into a 9.4 percent chance of jumping into the top four. Slide up just two spots to ninth-worst entering the lottery and those chances more than double to better than 20 percent.
Remarkably, when I analyzed the lottery changes with an assumption that this year's draft would be unusually strong at the top thanks to Duke's Zion Williamson, I found that the difference in expected net value from a lottery pick between teams entering ninth and 11th ($2.6 million in production above the salary the pick would earn) was greater than the difference between entering the lottery first and sixth ($2.4 million).
Given the potential value of a top-four pick in a trade offer for New Orleans Pelicans star Anthony Davis, the Lakers have huge incentive to finish with the worst record possible the rest of the season.
Evaluate young prospects
The silver lining of the Lakers knowing so early that they're out of the playoff mix is allowing them to spend the next month taking a longer look at this year's remaining rookies. First-round pick Moe Wagner has played fewer than 200 minutes this season after missing training camp because of a lingering knee contusion. Whether Wagner can be part of the Lakers' center rotation next season will help determine how proactive the Lakers need to be at the position in free agency.
Meanwhile, second-round pick Isaac Bonga has spent the majority of his rookie campaign in the G League, playing just 33 minutes for the Lakers. Given Bonga didn't turn 19 until November, he was always more of a long-term project. With the G League season ending in two weeks and the South Bay Lakers also likely to miss the playoffs, the Lakers can get a better idea of how far Bonga is from contributing.
Additionally, the Lakers have an empty roster spot after trading two players for center Mike Muscala at the deadline. With the playoffs no longer in the picture, the Lakers should use that spot to call up a young player from the G League and sign them to a contract that is non-guaranteed for 2019-20 -- preferably a point guard, with Ball likely sidelined and Ingram unavailable to play point forward.
If the Lakers wanted to be particularly aggressive, they could waive some of their veterans on one-year contracts who are unlikely to be re-signed (Muscala, Tyson Chandler, Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson and perhaps JaVale McGee) and use those roster spots on young players with 2019-20 non-guarantees. That would allow the Lakers to build the core of their summer league team before playoff-bound teams have the ability to compete with them for prospects.
Try to repair relationships with the Pelicans
One way or another, the Lakers are likely to revisit Davis trade talks this summer. They will have the benefit of negotiating with a new GM in New Orleans after Dell Demps was fired last month. Still, the Lakers should be doing everything in their power to mend things with the Pelicans and their interim GM Danny Ferry given the possibility that Ferry gets the job on a permanent basis.
Because of the widespread perception they're tampering with players under contract, the Lakers appear to start at a disadvantage in trade talks for stars. Simply having a competitive offer -- and just how competitive the Lakers' return for Davis will be probably depends in large part on the Boston Celtics' willingness to include forward Jayson Tatum in a Davis trade -- may not be enough for the Lakers, as they won't likely get the benefit of the doubt.
Now, the Lakers also have the complication of how Ingram's condition will affect his trade value. Both Chris Bosh and Mirza Teletovic saw blood clots recur and ultimately end their NBA careers. If the Lakers are to include Ingram in a Davis trade offer, New Orleans will understandably want reassurance that he will be able to continue his career. That requires trust on both sides.
Lakers president of basketball operations Magic Johnson saying "No" to a reporter's question about whether the Pelicans negotiated in good faith before the deadline doesn't help. Nor did a New Orleans source telling The Athletic that the Lakers' trade offers appeared online shortly after calls between the two teams.
While the Lakers' defensive struggles without the injured Ball have perhaps enhanced his value by making obvious what should have been clear from his defensive stats, they nonetheless may find themselves in a more difficult position pursuing Davis. Another season out of the playoffs ratchets up the pressure on the Lakers' front office to deliver a contender, with a Davis trade the easiest shortcut to getting there.
It's too late for the Lakers to save their first season with LeBron, so now their attention must turn to doing whatever it takes to make 2019-20 a more successful campaign.