As soon as Duke dominated Kentucky in Tuesday's season-opening Champions Classic with three freshmen in the top five of ESPN's draft rankings leading the way, the refrain hit social media: Time for NBA teams with little hope of reaching the playoffs to start tanking for the 2019 NBA draft.
However, losing your way to the top of the draft order is no longer as easy as it was last season. New draft-lottery rules kick in this season, flattening the odds of securing one of the top picks. The team with the NBA's worst record is only guaranteed the No. 5 pick at worst now, rather than No. 4.
Given the changes, is playing for draft position still a worthwhile strategy?
How much is a spot in the pre-lottery order worth?
Let's start by considering how valuable each given pick in the draft is, a topic I've studied extensively to put together a trade-value chart for NBA draft picks. Because the cap hits for first-round picks have been gradually increasing under the new NBA collective bargaining agreement, these figures have changed from year to year.
Here's what I estimate for the 2019 draft in terms of the net value each pick can be expected to provide above and beyond his salary. These projections include a player's four-year rookie contract and a possible second contract with his original team, as well as what that translates into in terms of trade value scaled to 4,000 value points for the top pick:
While my research suggests that teams tend to overvalue top picks relative to lower picks in trade, there's still naturally a huge benefit to having the No. 1 pick in particular -- worth more than $7 million more in terms of net value than the No. 2 pick, a gap larger than the difference between the second pick and the No. 9 selection. No wonder teams are willing to lose games now to improve their chances at No. 1.
These are results after the lottery, and when it comes to understanding the value of tanking, we have to look at the expected value of each spot going into it. Under the new system, the value of top picks is much more evenly distributed among lottery teams:
The difference in expected net value between the No. 1 spot in the lottery and the 14th spot now isn't much larger than the difference in terms of net value between the actual selections at No. 1 and No. 2 on draft night. More crucially, the value of each of the top three spots in the lottery is virtually identical, with the top spot entering the lottery providing just $230,000 more in expected net value than the third spot.
This is by design, of course. The NBA wanted to reduce the incentive for teams to lose as many games as possible, and while the lottery already mitigated the value of moving up in the order, one win could still make a crucial difference in a team's lottery chances. Now, that's not true at the top of the lottery order, as the top three teams all have identical chances at landing one of the four picks that will be drawn. The only advantage to finishing with the league's worst record will be the guarantee of picking no lower than fifth, whereas the team with the second-worst record could drop all the way to sixth and so on.
What if the 2019 draft is particularly top-heavy?
Intriguingly, most of the hype from the Champions Classic has centered on Zion Williamson, who entered the game No. 3 in our draft rankings by Jonathan Givony. With 28 points on 11-of-13 shooting, the high-flying Williamson stole center stage away from teammate and No. 1 prospect R.J. Barrett, who merely had 33 points and six assists in his debut.
While it's far too early to draw any conclusions about Barrett and Williamson (or No. 2 prospect Nassir Little, who had a more modest seven points and three rebounds coming off the bench for North Carolina in his first game), let's say for the sake of argument that this is an especially strong top of the draft. How would that change the value of lottery positioning?
Projecting that the top two picks this year will be as good as the best top two prospects of the one-and-done era (Greg Oden and Kevin Durant in 2007) would yield a pre-lottery value chart that looks like this:
Because the top three teams still have equal chances at getting one of the first two picks, a top-heavy draft doesn't really change their relative positioning. And their advantage over the middle of the lottery remains modest. You have to drop all the way from the top spot in the lottery to 10th to have the difference be worth more than the expected value of the last pick of the first round ($5.5 million net value).
If a team faces a choice between a slim chance at a playoff run and selling off veterans to play for a better draft pick, a quality draft could make the lottery path worthwhile. There also remains some value in going from the middle of the lottery to one of the league's three worst records to maximize the chance of getting the top pick. However, this year's changes to the lottery mean celebrating every loss for teams going nowhere no longer makes sense. Entering the lottery a spot or two higher won't make much difference when it comes to the chances of landing Williamson, Barrett or the rest of this year's top prospects.