Throughout the season, we're checking in on which big NBA topics are real.
In this edition: Are the Denver Nuggets the biggest challengers to the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference? And is Lauri Markkanen's star potential underrated?
Buy or sell: The Nuggets are the second-best Finals contender in the West
The Nuggets are the No. 2 seed in the West, one game behind the first-place Golden State Warriors with the chance to catch them in their Friday night matchup (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/WatchESPN). But is this the second-best team in the conference?
Denver has some great arguments in its favor.
First, the Nuggets are one of the most balanced teams in the NBA, with the fifth-best offensive efficiency (110.7 points per 100 possessions) and the 11th-best defensive efficiency. The only team that's ahead of the Nuggets in both categories is the Milwaukee Bucks, who sport the best record in the NBA. This is a hallmark of recent championship teams, as every title winner since the 2005-06 Miami Heat has been top-11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
The Nuggets' strength is their offense, a unique system in which center Nikola Jokic is the primary decision-maker and floor general while surrounded by shooters. Jokic is tied for fifth in the NBA with 7.7 assists per game, by far the highest average among centers and trailing only LeBron James among frontcourt players. Jokic is also a high-efficiency scorer, leading the Nuggets with 20.5 PPG on a 59.3 true shooting percentage (TS%). Jokic operates with equal facility off the dribble, out of the post and as a shooter. This translates to a huge offensive impact for Jokic, whose 4.70 offensive real plus-minus (ORPM) ranks fifth in the NBA.
Jokic's role and impact are also important indicators for postseason success. Every NBA finalist since 2012-13 has had at least one player measure in the top seven in the league in ORPM and/or defensive RPM (DRPM). This is probably because the playoffs are dominated by matchups and exploiting mismatches. Jokic's ability to break down opposing defenses and create good looks for himself and teammates from all over the court should make the Nuggets a tough out in the postseason.
Jokic's one weakness is that he isn't a defensive anchor, but on the Nuggets that role is held down by power forward Paul Millsap. Millsap was injured for most of 2017-18, but otherwise has been in the top 20 in DRPM every season since 2015-16. He currently ranks 17th in the NBA in DRPM and utilizes his length and vocal leadership to help make the Nuggets' defensive unit solid enough to compete well in the postseason environment.
Another pertinent team strength for the Nuggets is 3-point shooting, as all eight of their highest per-minute contributors -- plus newly healthy Isaiah Thomas -- knock down at least 0.8 3s per game. The team ranks 10th in the NBA in 3-point percentage, knocking down 35.9 percent of their attempts. Stretching the floor with 3-point shooting is vital in today's NBA, and every team to make the Finals since 2009-10 has finished the season in the top 12 in 3-point percentage.
However, there are two big obstacles to the Nuggets as a top-2 team in the West: the Warriors and the Houston Rockets. Everything in the West goes through the four-time conference champion Warriors, and home-court advantage isn't going to give Denver the edge there.
The Nuggets have a better case against the Rockets -- along with other challengers such as the Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers -- as they have the better record and scoring margin this season.
Each team has dealt with major injury issues, and the Nuggets have handled those injuries better. But a strong case can be made that Chris Paul's absence affected his team more than any of the Nuggets' absences.
When the Rockets were fully healthy last season, they finished with the best record (65-17) and scoring margin (plus-8.5) in the NBA, both marks well ahead of the Nuggets' current pace (43-21, plus-5.1 scoring margin). Even this season, after an awful start, the Rockets have the second-best record in the NBA since Dec. 9 (28-11), slightly ahead of the Warriors (26-11) and Nuggets (26-12).
Both Houston (No. 26) and Denver (No. 18) rank below league average in opponent shot quality allowed, according to Second Spectrum data. The Rockets might be more capable of flipping a defensive switch in the postseason, and even though Paul and Harden have demonstrated some playoff struggles, this is a more experienced team.
The wild card in the race for the Finals is seeding. If the Warriors and Rockets end up in the same quarter of the bracket, it would potentially open the door for the Nuggets to await the winner in the conference finals. Seeding aside, though, I respectfully sell on the Nuggets as the second-best Finals contender in the West and have them battling the other Western powers for the third slot.
Buy or sell: Lauri Markkanen will be a top-3 player from the 2017-18 rookie class
Five players received votes in the 2017-18 Rookie of the Year race: Ben Simmons (a 2016 draftee, and the runaway winner), Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, Kyle Kuzma and Dennis Smith Jr. But where does Markkanen fit into hierarchy of last season's stacked rookie class? Let's explore.
Here is a chart of some of the pertinent statistics for 11 of the top sophomores in the league:
This is an extremely impressive class, with a lot of upside. Simmons, Mitchell, Tatum, Markkanen, De'Aaron Fox and John Collins have been the most productive thus far. Markkanen's potential to be among the leaders from this class stems from his skill set for his size. He is the biggest player on this list at a legitimate 7 feet, but he's also the best pure shooter. Markkanen is averaging more than 2.2 made 3s per game on 36.4 percent from beyond the arc, a similar volume but higher percentage than Mitchell.
NBA history and analytics have shown us that big men who are volume scoring threats from the outside have a particularly positive impact on their team's offensive efficiency. These types of players warp defenses by pulling extra defensive attention to the perimeter, especially opposing bigs. This creates extra space for their teammates to operate in the paint and around the rim. Dirk Nowitzki is the best-case scenario for this type of scoring big who is a threat from the perimeter, and he peaked with the highest RPM in the NBA in 2011, a season in which he led his team to an NBA championship. Markkanen's ceiling is a player in that mold.
Big men who can shoot also make excellent pick-and-roll partners, creating mismatches up top. Markkanen will force defenses to overextend to prevent him from getting the ball in scoring position, which will open up opportunities for the ball handler and/or open shots for teammates. This season, the Bulls have scored 0.986 points per chance on 882 plays with Markkanen as the pick setter, per Second Spectrum tracking. His defense is already approaching replacement level.
Markkanen needs to improve his post game, as he has generated only 0.759 points per chance on 115 post-ups this season, per Second Spectrum. But he has the size and touch to get better there. Markkanen also will need to improve his passing, as modern bigs need to be able to take full advantage of the way that their scoring threat warps the opponent.
Markkanen still has improvements to make to maximize his game, but his size, mobility and shooting give him clear top-3 upside for his class. While I expect this class to produce quite a few All-Star appearances, I do tentatively buy that Markkanen could develop into one of the top-3 players in this class long term -- in a best-case scenario.