The deal
76ers get: Tobias Harris, Boban Marjanovic and Mike Scott
Clippers get: Landry Shamet, Wilson Chandler, Mike Muscala, the Sixers' 2020 protected first-round pick, an unprotected 2021 first-round pick (via Miami) and second-round picks in 2021 and 2023
Get more trade grades for every deal here
Philadelphia 76ers: C-
After dealing for Jimmy Butler in November, the Sixers figured to prioritize adding depth before the trade deadline. Instead, Philadelphia doubled down on top-tier talent by sending three rotation contributors to the Clippers for Harris and two reserves.
By adding Harris to Butler and All-Stars Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, the 76ers have four of the league's top 35 players by my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric this season -- twice as many as any other team in the league. (Oddly, the Clippers had been the other team with three before sending Harris to Philadelphia.) Add in JJ Redick, and all five of the Sixers' starters are in the top 50.
It's unclear how much damage this deal actually does to Philadelphia's depth. Scott is a reasonable facsimile for Muscala as a stretch big man, though he's not as capable of sliding to center. And Marjanovic, who averages an eye-popping 23.2 points and 14.6 rebounds per 36 minutes in limited action, is an intriguing option at center against the likes of Boston's Aron Baynes and Toronto's Jonas Valanciunas.
The 76ers are surely still hoping to add depth via the buyout market, particularly after losing a rotation wing in Shamet, who was averaging 20 minutes per game off the bench. Alternatively, the Sixers could still make a deal by Thursday's trade deadline, albeit without their two largest available expiring contracts in Chandler and Muscala.
One way or another, Philadelphia should be stronger this season with the addition of Harris, a trendy pick as an All-Star reserve who missed out on the actual roster. Harris was enjoying a hyperefficient season with the Clippers, making 52 percent of his 2-point attempts, 40 percent of his 3-pointers and 88 percent from the free throw line. His size and shooting ability make Harris an ideal fit with Philadelphia's other pieces. He can fill a similar role to Chandler defensively while providing far more shooting and scoring punch.
In the immediate wake of this deal, FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver tweeted that the 76ers' odds of reaching the NBA Finals, according to their projection system, nearly doubled from around 10 percent to 18 percent with the addition of Harris. I'm higher on the Milwaukee Bucks' chances than the FiveThirtyEight projections, which are conservative to react when teams outperform their initial projections, but the Sixers have certainly put themselves firmly in the Eastern Conference mix. We'll know more after the buyout market settles where they stand relative to the other top three teams in the East, which looks as top-heavy as Philadelphia's roster.
In the long run, the Sixers paid dearly to add Harris. This deal joins last week's trade by the Dallas Mavericks for Kristaps Porzingis as just the second in nearly four years in which a team sends out two future first-round picks without getting any in return. The 76ers go from having a single extra draft pick coming after years of stockpiling them to now giving up that pick (unprotected from Miami in 2021) and being out one of their own, most likely in 2020. (Things would have to take a dramatic turn for Philadelphia to miss the playoffs and keep that year's first-rounder.)
Don't forget to count Shamet as part of the future cost of this trade. His bargain rookie contract will pay him less than $8 million over the next three seasons, and while Shamet has defensive limitations, he looked like a possible long-term successor at shooting guard.
There's a financial price coming, too. The 76ers will have to re-sign Harris as an unrestricted free agent this summer, and he'll surely command a max deal. Add in a new max deal for Butler -- we think -- and in the optimistic scenario Philadelphia will have a $120 million payroll in 2019-20 before attempting to re-sign Redick or add anyone else to the roster. Most likely, the Sixers will be in the luxury tax if they re-sign both Butler and Harris, and that's before Simmons' salary escalates when he's eligible for an extension that would kick in the following season.
Give first-year Philadelphia GM Elton Brand this: He's not afraid to take a risk. The deals for Butler and now Harris have been two of this season's biggest gambles. I don't think I would have given up so much in terms of both future picks and Shamet for a player who will be an unrestricted free agent in five months (and could, it should be noted, just walk away). If the Sixers reach the NBA Finals in the next couple of years, however, the price may prove worth it.
LA Clippers: A
The Clippers' decision to sacrifice the pursuit of the eighth playoff seed hours after a thrilling win over the Charlotte Hornets moved them a game up on the Sacramento Kings (and 2.5 ahead of the L.A. Lakers) is understandable in the context of the haul they received here.
Harris had value to the Clippers, both in the playoff chase the remainder of this season and as an insurance option this summer in case they can't persuade two max free agents to come play together in L.A. However, as Kevin Arnovitz and Zach Lowe argued in what proved a prescient discussion on this week's Lowe Post, Harris might not have been content to wait around as the Clippers pursued bigger stars in free agency.
Additionally, the Clippers making the playoffs would have meant losing their lottery-protected first-round pick to the Boston Celtics. If the Clippers fall out of the eighth seed, they'll have another pick in the late lottery after drafting promising point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander No. 11 overall last year. Since the protections convert to a 2022 second-rounder if the pick isn't conveyed next season, the Clippers may never lose a first-round pick at all, or at the very least might have one later in the round in 2020 if they score big in free agency.
Essentially, this trade means the Clippers can surround whomever they land in free agency this summer with a deep supporting cast. They have a pair of veterans on value contracts (Lou Williams at $8 million and Montrezl Harrell at $6 million), three first-round picks from the 2018 draft in Gilgeous-Alexander, Jerome Robinson and now Shamet and extra first-round picks on the way. Those picks also could be useful for the Clippers if they can't land two max free agents and seek to trade for a star or need to offload Danilo Gallinari's 2019-20 salary to make room for a more expensive max free agent with 10-plus years of experience (i.e. Kevin Durant).
If we consider this trade the second part of a series with last year's Blake Griffin deal, which yielded Harris and the pick (after a trade up one spot) that became Gilgeous-Alexander, the results are incredible. In addition to clearing the cap space necessary for this summer's free-agent dreams, trading Griffin ultimately produced three future first-round picks and recent first-rounder Shamet -- an unbelievable return given the size of Griffin's remaining contract.
The Clippers still must prove they can complete the deal by convincing a max free agent or two to take their money this summer and making effective use of the picks either to draft players or via trade. But for now, they've set themselves up as a sleeping giant in the West.