How far should the Los Angeles Lakers push to acquire Anthony Davis before Thursday's NBA trade deadline?
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Tuesday that the Lakers were waiting for the New Orleans Pelicans to make them a counteroffer rather than continuing to increase their offers to try to satisfy the Pelicans.
Most of the analysis of this deal has centered on how much the Lakers will need to give up to convince New Orleans to part with Davis now rather than waiting for this summer, when the Boston Celtics could enter the bidding. (The Celtics could acquire Davis now only if All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving were traded away from Boston.)
Not enough discussion has considered whether reaching that point even makes sense for the Lakers. I don't think it does. Here's why.
Reason 1: This season's Lakers would be too thin to compete
Wojnarowski reported Tuesday that the Lakers are willing to give up five of their young contributors to the Pelicans: recent lottery picks Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram, first-rounders Josh Hart and Kyle Kuzma and second-round pick Ivica Zubac. Let's say they included Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as the salary necessary to balance out a deal for Davis and Solomon Hill, whose $12.8 million salary for 2019-20 New Orleans would like to clear from its books. Here's how that deal would look in ESPN's trade machine.
That version of a Lakers-Pelicans trade would leave L.A. with 13 players on the roster, including two-way players Alex Caruso and Johnathan Williams, and a rotation something like this:
PG: Rajon Rondo/Caruso
SG: Reggie Bullock/Lance Stephenson
SF: LeBron James/Michael Beasley/Isaac Bonga
PF: Davis/Hill/Moe Wagner
C: JaVale McGee/Tyson Chandler/Williams
Giving up six players averaging a combined 162.6 minutes per game for two averaging a combined 57.3 would dramatically weaken the Lakers' bench. Caruso would be the team's only true point guard besides Rondo and the Lakers might need to get regular minutes from Hill, who was out of the Pelicans' rotation at the start of January.
The Lakers would have four open roster spots to use on players bought out between now and the end of the month, and would become an attractive destination for such players because of the playing time they could offer and the appeal of living in L.A. However, it's worth noting that few players contribute to their new teams after buyouts, with the market for the Lakers' weakened wing positions particularly scarce. Wesley Matthews, currently on the New York Knicks after his inclusion in last week's trade sending Kristaps Porzingis to the Dallas Mavericks, might be the only starting-caliber wing available.
The lack of depth would make the Lakers susceptible to injuries the remainder of the regular season. With James coming back from a groin strain that was the most serious injury of his career and Davis working back from a left finger injury, any recurrence might make it difficult for the Lakers to pass the two teams (the LA Clippers and Sacramento Kings) they currently trail for the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
Reason 2: The Lakers would hamper their 2019 free agency
If the Lakers deal for Davis now, they're also taking a pass on making a max offer to a free agent this summer. Even if the Lakers traded their 2019 first-round pick and found a taker for Hill's contract, which ESPN's Bobby Marks notes will escalate to a $13.3 million cap hit if he plays another 288 minutes and achieves an incentive bonus for reaching 1,000, they'd still have just $28.3 million in cap space -- a bit shy of the $32.7 million projected maximum for players with 7-9 years of experience like Irving and well short of the $38.2 million projected max for Kevin Durant and other players with 10-plus years of experience.
The easiest path for the Lakers to a true superteam in L.A. would be signing a maximum-salary free agent first and then using a similar package of young players to deal for Davis alone next summer. Of course, there are any number of obstacles to that dream scenario. It's possible, maybe even probable, that no max free agent will be interested in signing with the Lakers next summer. And they'd still have to convince New Orleans to make a deal, which could be trickier by then if the Pelicans have a better offer or don't want to facilitate the rise of the NBA's next superstar trio.
Nonetheless, exploring the mere possibility of adding a third superstar is part of the argument for the Lakers waiting on a Davis deal.
Reason 3: The Lakers would quickly become old and expensive
By giving up nearly all the young talent they've accumulated over an extended rebuilding process, the Lakers would be accelerating the timetable on following the same path as James' former Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat teams. For those franchises, their windows of championship contention quickly slammed shut as the supporting talent around James aged and became difficult or impossible to replace due to luxury-tax restrictions, leading James to leave in free agency.
Because Davis is due for a substantial raise in the summer of 2020, when he can become an unrestricted free agent by declining a player option, this summer would likely be the only opportunity for the LeBron-AD Lakers to utilize cap space. Thereafter, depending how many multiyear deals they sign, the Lakers might be limited to using the taxpayer midlevel exception to add players via free agency. While that tool can be useful for a desirable destination -- the Golden State Warriors used it to add DeMarcus Cousins last summer -- it typically means adding veterans hoping to win a championship in the late stages of their careers. The same is true of players signed for the veterans minimum in free agency.
Even if the Lakers hold the line at two future first-round picks, that still limits their ability to add cost-controlled young talent to the roster. They'd largely be counting on the development of their 2018 draft picks Wagner and Bonga to inject any upside to a veteran roster. That only gets worse the more draft picks the Lakers add to the deal, with Wojnarowski reporting the Pelicans expect four first- and second-rounders out of the trade.
Now, maybe Davis and James are so good that they transcend those limitations. After all, LeBron's last teams in Cleveland and Miami did manage to win the Eastern Conference and reach the NBA Finals. And Davis would arguably be the best teammate James has had in his career, given that Dwyane Wade was older when he teamed up with LeBron and not as ideal a fit alongside him.
Nonetheless, if the Lakers want to maximize their chances of winning a championship with James, I don't think they can afford to give up all their young talent and multiple first-round picks to get Davis. The toll on the roster might simply be too great to overcome.