Which NBA teams can count on better results in 2019?
The turn of the calendar means a chance to turn the page on a disappointing 2018 and hope for a happier new year. That also goes for NBA teams off to slow starts, as with more than half the schedule remaining, there's still time for most of them to turn things around.
With help from ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) and FiveThirtyEight's NBA predictions, let's take a look at the teams that might be in line for improvement during the 2019 portion of the 2018-19 season.
1. Utah Jazz
Current record: 19-20
BPI projection: 47-35
FiveThirtyEight projection: 48-34
The Jazz enjoyed the biggest in-season turnaround of any team in 2017-18, going from 16-23 at the same point of the schedule to a 48-34 finish and a first-round series victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Though Utah has been unable to translate that strong finish to last season into a strong start this season, there's a good reason for that: The Jazz's schedule to date ranks as the league's hardest according to BPI, featuring just 16 of 39 games in Salt Lake City thus far.
The home-road split will automatically even out for Utah the rest of the way, and BPI rates its remaining schedule second-easiest in the league -- the easiest by a wide margin among Western Conference teams. Add in a strong point differential (plus-2.3 points per game, which would typically translate into three or four more wins than the Jazz actually have), and there's every reason to believe that Utah can still come close to meeting the high expectations with which it entered the season.
Current record: 17-22
BPI projection: 41-41
FiveThirtyEight projection: 42-40
Better health should help the slumping Pelicans in 2019. They got just seven games in 2018 from Elfrid Payton, their opening-night starter at point guard, while starting power forward Nikola Mirotic missed 11 of the team's 15 games in December due to illness and a sore ankle. Mirotic's absence was a key factor as New Orleans went 6-9 in the month, sliding below .500.
Odds are the Pelicans will be healthier in the new year, given Payton's return on New Year's Eve, and they'll also benefit from a slightly softer schedule. Alas, they've fallen so far out of the playoff mix, those factors might not be enough for New Orleans, which reaches the postseason 38 percent of the time in FiveThirtyEight's simulations that factor in health and just 14 percent of the time based on BPI. Ahead of star big man Anthony Davis' decision on a possible supermax extension, nobody has more riding on the rest of the 2018-19 season than the Pelicans.
Current record: 23-15
BPI projection: 53-29
FiveThirtyEight projection: 53-29
Boston's plus-6.2 point differential is fourth in the league, yet the Celtics sit fifth in the Eastern Conference standings. Despite a schedule that looks a tad more difficult in the new year, that scoring margin and Boston's strong talent base (factored into both BPI, via preseason projections, and FiveThirtyEight, based on the ratings of players on the roster) suggest somewhat better results ahead.
The Celtics might not actually play any better -- their remaining projections call for slightly worse level of play than their point differential to date -- but their record should improve simply by matching up more closely with current success.
Current record: 22-15
BPI projection: 49-33
FiveThirtyEight projection: 51-31
While both BPI and FiveThirtyEight project better play from the Rockets in 2019, they disagree a bit on the magnitude. BPI's average projection of 27-18 the rest of the way would only be a marginal upgrade from how Houston has played thus far, while FiveThirtyEight projects an average 29-16 finish that would put the Rockets in strong position for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Because FiveThirtyEight's current model relies on player ratings rather than team ratings, it's somewhat slower to react to changes in performance this season. Houston, one of the league's biggest disappointments to date, is an outlier in this regard. We'll know a bit more about which method better projects team success based on where the Rockets finish.
Current record: 10-29
BPI projection: 22-60
FiveThirtyEight projection: 22-60
Despite the turbulent start to Jim Boylen's tenure as Chicago's head coach, the Bulls have now won as many of the 15 games Boylen coached (5-10) as the first 24 under Fred Hoiberg (5-19). Regression to the mean was surely inevitable for the Bulls, who recently got starters Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkanen back from long-term injuries.
That hasn't helped much offensively, where Chicago continues to languish last in the league on a per-possession basis, but the Bulls have been stout defensively under Boylen (per NBA Advanced Stats, they're 12th in defensive rating since he took over).
The one caveat is Chicago is so far out of the playoff mix that draft positioning might become a priority at some point. However, Boylen will have incentive to rack up victories and prove he should keep his job, while the incentives for losing games down the stretch are no longer nearly as strong due to this year's changes to the lottery.
6. Phoenix Suns
Current record: 9-31
BPI projection: 21-61
FiveThirtyEight projection: 21-61
Like the Bulls -- beside the in-season coaching change -- the Suns have shown signs of life after a disappointing start. Phoenix won four in a row in mid-December, including an impressive victory at Boston, although the Suns have now lost five games in a row at home. With starters Devin Booker and T.J. Warren in the lineup, the Suns have far more scoring punch. They're 1-9 without Booker this season, having been outscored by an average 14.7 points in those games. With Booker, Phoenix is a far more respectable 8-22.
Also like Chicago, Phoenix will have to weigh the value of looking more competitive the rest of 2018-19 against the prospect of adding another top pick to the team's collection. Given how long the Suns have spent in the lottery, inspiring hope might be a priority.