After analyzing what lies ahead for former top-10 picks Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, De'Aaron Fox and Dennis Smith Jr., let's take a look at three sophomores who could have bounce-back seasons after making minimal NBA impacts as rookies.
Markelle Fultz | 6-foot-5 | PG/SG | No. 1 pick
There's a reason Markelle Fultz was widely viewed among NBA scouts as the top prospect in the 2017 draft. One NBA executive jokingly said during the heart of the 2016-17 college season, "Markelle Fultz is the reason I get out of bed every morning." Other scouts would often make statements such as, "He does things getting to the paint that I've never seen before."
Fultz was that dynamic with the ball and that effortless of a shot creator. He sat at No. 1 on our DraftExpress mock draft from Oct. 4, 2016 until the day he was drafted first overall on June 22, 2017.
At 6-5, 200 pounds with a 6-10 wingspan, Fultz brought a unique, natural flow with the ball, and his trajectory up until that point suggested significant untapped potential. Fultz was only scratching the surface -- a seemingly carefree, humble late bloomer who didn't make the varsity team until his junior season at powerhouse DeMatha. Then he had one of the more bizarre rookie seasons we've seen in NBA history.
Regardless of the underlying issue -- injuries, his shooting form, confidence -- Fultz is at least beginning to show signs of returning to his Washington form. It hasn't come without ups and downs, but his hesitation pullup jumpers, sloppy yet effortless jaunts to the rim and instinctual spin moves are slowly starting to resurface. As Fultz continues to get more and more comfortable, the rest of the NBA should eventually see exactly why the Sixers traded up to draft him.
Here's why Fultz is our lead candidate for a bounce-back year:
1. Return of the pullup
Fultz knocked down only nine of 34 pull-up jumpers in 17 games last season, and 32 of his 39 total jumpers came inside 17 feet. His inability to pose a threat as a spot-up or pull-up shooter made him close to unplayable at times:
At Washington, Fultz's game was built around his once-lethal "hesi-pullup." His creative live dribble package was extremely difficult to stop in large part because of his ability to rise up on a dime from virtually anywhere on the floor. Fultz attempted 5.6 pullups per game at UW, ranking first among Power 5 conference players in off-the-dribble jumper efficiency, according to Synergy. He showed neverending confidence and a knack for knocking down shots even if his mechanics varied some.
While the range on his pullup isn't quite there yet, after a summer in the gym with trainer Drew Hanlen, his form looks cleaner from 15-18 feet. Most importantly, he appears far more confident, shooting near the top of his jump with fluidity -- a drastic difference from his rookie-year mechanics.
At Washington, the threat of Fultz's hang dribble pullup set up his drives, allowing him to use his natural size, long strides and unique body control to knife through the paint to score or create for his teammates. If Fultz continues to become a consistent threat against drop coverages, he'll likely force the big defender away from the rim, allowing him to put pressure on the basket with regularity. He still doesn't look at the rim at times when he has the ball beyond the arc, but given his past success, it's not out of the question that Fultz becomes a capable pull-up 3-point shooter in time.
Even though that range isn't there this year, we've seen lead guards with similar physical tools -- John Wall, Dwyane Wade -- kill opponents from the elbows and remain extremely effective at getting to spots on the floor.
Fultz's catch-and-shoot 3 is still a major work in progress, but seeing his pull-up jumper go through the rim has always been what gets him into a rhythm and sets the table for the rest of his game. He seems to be trending in the right direction there.
2. Improved free throw stroke
After attempting 7.5 free throws per 40 minutes at UW, Fultz's charity-stripe visits shrunk to 3.6 last season. His lack of aggression to the rim was clearly tied to his adventurous free throw stroke that lit the internet on fire with seemingly every attempt.
Now that Fultz's free throw mechanics appear fairly fluid, expect to see him get to the line far more often. He still has room to grow as a finisher against length in terms of his creativity and finesse, but his stellar physical tools will allow him to earn trips to the line with relative ease as he continues to gain confidence. In the small preseason sample we do have, Fultz looked more aggressive putting pressure on the rim in transition, using his unique athleticism to keep defenders guessing.
Being fairly reliable from the free throw line will also serve as a another source of confidence, which should result in more of a willingness to fire from the perimeter.
3. Starting with Embiid and Simmons, running the second unit
As a starter, Fultz will certainly benefit from all the attention that Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons garner. Because Fultz is clearly at his best playing on the ball, there are natural questions about his long-term fit with Simmons. But we live in a multiple-ball-handler era of basketball, and Sixers coach Brett Brown has seemingly already found creative ways to use Fultz, Simmons and Embiid together. Because Embiid can space the floor from 3 and Simmons is a capable interior scorer, there are ways to make the trio work:
Fultz can either initiate offense or attack scrambling defenses in second-side situations after ball reversals, with Embiid and Simmons so often forcing teams to commit two defenders in the paint. He can also add value as a cutter as his off-the-ball activity continues to improve.
Of course, turning into a passable spot-up 3-point shooter would make Fultz a perfect fit next to Simmons and Embiid. If he's not making shots from the perimeter, short closeouts will limit his driving lanes and teams will be able to double Philly's stars without much consequence. This will likely be Fultz's biggest hurdle this season. Even at Washington he was more adept off the dribble than the catch, attempting 140 pullups to only 60 catch-and-shoot jumpers in 25 games (with 23 makes).
He will have some habits to extinguish as well, as he too often gravitates to the dunker spot when he could be spaced to the corner. The Sixers become much tougher to guard if Fultz is a threat in the corner here:
When Simmons does go to the bench, the Sixers have the personnel to surround Fultz with shooting at almost every position in Embiid, Mike Muscala, Dario Saric, Robert Covington, JJ Redick and even sharpshooting rookie Landry Shamet. In these bench lineups, the Sixers can also invert the offense with Fultz operating out of the post, similar to Shaun Livingston in Golden State.
Even though Fultz's sophomore season will have its inevitable peaks and valleys, don't rule him out as an eventual top-three player to come out of the 2017 draft. When he's right, the 20-year-old is as naturally gifted of a guard prospect we've seen in the past five years, and this season, fans should be able to get a sense of exactly why.
Luke Kennard | 6-6 | SG | No. 12 pick
For any normal first-round pick, Kennard turned in a fine rookie season. He played 20 minutes per game over 73 games, started nine contests and shot 41.5 percent from 3 on 199 attempts. But the fact that he was drafted 12th -- ahead of Donovan Mitchell and other standout rookies such as John Collins, OG Anunoby and Kyle Kuzma -- raises expectations.
So why might Kennard be poised for a bounce-back sophomore season relative to expectations?
Under coach Dwane Casey, the Pistons are reportedly aiming to place more of an emphasis on pace and ball movement as opposed to Stan Van Gundy's more regimented offense that ranked No. 21 in pace last season. Virtually every team seems to preach these same goals during the preseason, but should Detroit deliver, Kennard is an excellent option to reap the benefits given his skill set as a shotmaker with positional size and feel.
The Pistons should also be able to get Kennard going on the move more than last season, which is an area where he really thrived at Duke. While Kennard's bread and butter will likely always be his catch-and-shoot 3 -- he ranked No. 8 in the NBA in spot-up efficiency (minimum 100 possessions) last season -- his versatility shone through more at the collegiate level. He's outstanding playing read-and-react basketball out of pindowns and is more than capable in ball screens.
If the Pistons can commit to using Kennard more in second-side pick-and-roll and quick actions, he should reward them with a big season offensively. Kennard also faces fewer roadblocks for playing time to start Year 2, with Avery Bradley in L.A. after he and Tobias Harris were shipped off before the 2018 trade deadline.
He may never be a stellar defender, but Kennard is perfectly suited for the skill-based modern NBA predicated on shooting and thinking.
Derrick White | 6-5 | PG/SG | No. 29 pick
After playing only 157 NBA minutes as a rookie, White, 24, has all the ingredients to not only crack Gregg Popovich's regular rotation in Year 2 but also emerge as one of San Antonio's better perimeter players.
Building on an excellent 2017-18 G League campaign, White turned in an outstanding offseason, shining at Utah Summer League (23.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 7.0 APG in 29.5 MPG) and helping lead Team USA through its latest FIBA window. Several NBA teams scouted the USA training camp in Las Vegas, where it was clear that White was far and away the best player in attendance with the potential for a breakout second year. A late bloomer who graduated high school at 6-foot-0 and spent his first three years of college in Division II, White has evolved into the type of pass-dribble-shoot guard NBA teams are looking for.
"I always had that chip on my shoulder," White told ESPN after Team USA defeated Uruguay. "Nobody thought I'd be here. Nobody expected me to be here, so each and every day I've got to prove myself, and it drives me to work hard."
White reportedly stood out in Spurs training camp as well, and he has been excellent in the preseason minutes he's logged. While DeMar DeRozan figures to play a primary role, White is comfortable on or off the ball and is also an excellent fit alongside 22-year-old point guard Dejounte Murray. Murray is a slippery, attacking guard who can break down a defense, yet he struggles to shoot and score efficiently (49.0 true shooting percentage). White is more of a cerebral player who can fill it up from the perimeter, score with finesse and run the show in a pinch, making most ball-screen reads needed to operate on the ball.
White makes a lot of sense to plug into three-guard lineups with Murray and DeRozan, giving the Spurs multiple ball handlers and playmakers. And with preseason injuries to both Murray and Lonnie Walker, the door is open for White to see more on-ball reps, a role he shined in during his lone season at Colorado.
The loss of Kawhi Leonard is clearly a big blow to the Spurs, but the internal development of White figures to be a silver lining of the 2018-19 season in San Antonio.