For as electric as some rookies were last season, the 2017 NBA draft class still faced expected early struggles. With training camp only a couple weeks away, let's take a look at exactly what four former top-10 picks need to do in order to make a jump this upcoming season.
Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, De'Aaron Fox and Dennis Smith Jr. all showed impressive glimpses, but there's still quite a bit of room for growth heading into Year 2.
What's most important for each prospect to improve in order to live up to his lofty draft slot?
Note: Because he appeared in only 17 games with unique circumstances, we opted not to include No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz here.
Lonzo Ball | 6-6 | PG | Age: 20.8
Key improvement: Less pick-and-roll, more spot 3s
Ball is one of the most unique, unorthodox prospects we've evaluated. When considering his future development, it's important to keep in mind exactly what made him such an electric, polarizing prospect at UCLA.
In Westwood, Ball was a transition igniter, half-court ball mover and long-range shotmaker. When he wasn't firing full-court outlets or racing the ball up the floor, he was throwing darts to Bryce Alford sprinting off screens, stepping into deep catch-and-shoot 3s himself or hoisting step-back triples with mixed results. But very rarely was Ball seen dicing up defenses in pick-and-roll or snaking a ball-screen to get to his spot.
Ball used pick-and-roll on just 10.2 percent of his offensive possessions in college (49 total), according to Synergy. That number jumped to 29.2 percent as a rookie, and it's no surprise that he finished in the 18th percentile in such situations. He's never had much wiggle with the ball, and there were clear concerns about his ability both to get to his pull-up, and cash in from deep when teams went under. According to Second Spectrum, on 195 direct actions as the ball-handler when his defender went under -- meaning Ball finished the play with a shot, foul, turnover or assist opportunity -- Ball posted just 0.8 points per chance, which ranked 73rd out of 77 players with 100 such chances.
But Ball has never been a pick-and-roll savant. His genius lies in his ability to make an impact without many dribbles. He keeps the ball humming -- playing off closeouts, dashing backdoor as a cutter and making the simple play seem brilliant. He was able to do that at UCLA because he consistently made spot 3s. Ball ranked in the 95th percentile in spot-up situations, which made up 23.1 percent of his offense -- an extremely high number for a point guard.
As a Laker, Ball really struggled to make the open spots he so calmly cashed in college. He ranked 76th out of 77 guards in effective field goal percentage (eFG) on uncontested catch-and-shoots, according to Second Spectrum data (minimum 50 attempts). Ball also shot 15.7 percentage points worse than expected on those attempts given the quality of the looks.
Improving his spot-up ability will be integral to Ball becoming a suitable point guard partner for LeBron James. Next to James (and Rajon Rondo), his pick-and-roll shot-creation opportunities figure to lessen. LeBron's ball-dominance and commanding of defensive attention should allow Lonzo to slide off the ball, where he may be better suited in the half court. But that will only work if he can space the court by keeping defenses honest from deep.
During the 2017 pre-draft process a few astute NBA scouts asked if Ball actually is better off the ball in the half court given his ball-screen limitations. While it may have seemed crazy at the time, James' arrival gives us an opportunity to find out. If he can find a way to knock down open shots like he did in college, expect Ball to look much more like the wizard we saw at UCLA than the inefficient guard who stumbled through his rookie season on offense.
Josh Jackson | 6-8 | Wing | Age: 21.5
Key improvement: Keep it simple
Like Ball, Jackson saw his college efficiency take a nose-dive as a rookie, finishing the season with a 48.0 true shooting percentage and more turnovers than assists. Jackson, who often had his out of control moments as a top high school recruit, grabbed hold of the freedom he was eventually given on a losing Suns team, mixing in a handful of dicey shot-creation possessions.
At Kansas, Jackson shot 54.9 percent from 2 and 37.8 percent from 3 as an active small-ball 4 on a talented team. Jackson more or less played within himself next to Frank Mason and Devonte' Graham, with only 8.1 percent of his offense coming in pick-and-roll, per Synergy. Kansas ran a host of lob plays for its explosive freshman, and Jackson was able to focus on being more of an energy athlete while making enough shots to keep the defense honest and playmaking in second-side situations.
Once he hit the NBA ranks, however, Jackson started jacking up tough shots game after game on a rebuilding Phoenix team. He finished the year with more pull-ups (168) than catch-and-shoot attempts (148), firing off-balance shots in an effort to prove he could shoot. With the additions of Trevor Ariza and Mikal Bridges, the pressure is on for Jackson to start fine-tuning his offensive game in hopes that he can start playing more like Andre Iguodala than Corey Brewer.
While his hitchy jumper is clearly his swing skill, it's key for Jackson to keep things simple, operating as more of an energy athlete than he did as a rookie. Cuts made up only 5.8 percent of his offense last season, almost a 10 percent drop from his Kansas days. Jackson's main intrigue for now is his athleticism, energy and defense, and when he strays away from that he gets himself in trouble. Any pick-and-roll dimes or pull-up jumpers should be seen as a bonus at this stage of his development, with his core value coming from transition run outs, straight-line drives, cuts, put-backs and wide-open spot-ups.
With Deandre Ayton now in the middle, there's opportunity for Jackson to do exactly that. Assuming more possessions will work though Ayton in the post, Jackson can stick to his strengths while making enough 3s to create some gravity. When Jackson did in fact attempt catch-and-shoot jumpers out of spot ups last season, he scored 0.98 points per possession.
Phoenix's lack of a veteran point guard could lend itself to more ugly Jackson shot-creation possessions -- especially if Devin Booker misses time following a reported hand surgery -- but Ayton's presence and Ariza's guidance could help Jackson get back to playing a more efficient game as the versatile two-way forward we saw when he was drafted.
De'Aaron Fox | 6-3 | PG | Age: 20.7
Key improvement: Pick-and-roll 3s
Given his wiry frame and shaky shooting, it's no surprise that Fox had his ups and downs as a rookie. Fox finished in the 68th percentile as a ball-screen scorer at Kentucky, but consider that he was able to get virtually anywhere he wanted on the floor without a consistent pull-up due to his elite burst and fearless mentality against college competition. Fox shot only 9-of-40 on pick-and-roll pull-ups, which ranked in the 9th percentile in college basketball and should have been a telling sign that he'd take time to adjust in the NBA.
As a rookie, Fox finished in the 12th percentile as a half-court scorer and the 27th percentile as a pick-and-roll scorer. Fox forced shots at the rim because of his wavering pull-up confidence and his finishing percentages suffered.
According to Second Spectrum, Fox scored 0.9 points per direct pick when defenders went under screens, good for 57th among 77 players with at least 100 chances. Although he wasn't nearly as inefficient as Ball in such situations, Fox only took 79 shots on the 341 plays when defenders went under.
For Fox to maximize his potential as a slippery shot-creator, he'll have to become more reliable and confident in these situations. On top of that, Sacramento's current roster configuration makes it almost imperative that he creeps closer to league average on pull-up, pick-and-roll 3s. Sacramento's top three frontcourt players -- Willie Cauley-Stein, Harry Giles and Marvin Bagley III -- don't have much stretch. On top of that, only Giles has shown much consistency as a passer, and he's yet to play any NBA minutes.
If the Kings decide to play two of those three bigs together for long stretches of time, things could get messy for Fox. The Kings certainly have some shooting on the wings, but Fox still figures to have little room to utilize his blazing speed, and teams will force him to beat them from the perimeter by continuing to go under screens. Fox is more than capable of rising into a mid-range jumper, but he'll likely have to extend his pull-up range to beyond 3 to put himself in the best position to have an efficient sophomore season.
Dennis Smith Jr. | 6-3 | PG Age: 20.7
Key improvement: Off-ball impact
How will Smith handle fewer on-ball reps considering Luka Doncic's pick-and-roll brilliance?
The explosive 20-year-old -- a top-5 talent in 2017 -- was selected 9th overall in part because of questions about his coach-ability, defensive effort and willingness to stray from the isolation-heavy style of basketball that had made him so successful at a young age. With Doncic and Jalen Brunson added to the backcourt, Smith's shortcomings and ability to adjust will likely be tested more than ever this season.
Smith has had the ball in his hands with a considerable amount of freedom at virtually every level. In college, pick-and-roll and isolation made up a combined 46.5 percent of his offense. As a rookie that total rose to 50.8 percent. Smith attempted 280 pull-ups vs. 142 spot-up jumpers, with so many of those rise-and-fire looks coming after unnecessary dribbles. He was one of only 25 players in the NBA to use more than 150 possessions in the last four seconds of the shot clock. Among those 25 players, he ranked last in efficiency with 0.62 points per possession.
The NBA is built for multiple ball-handlers -- and Smith can wow fans with explosive dunks or occasional step-back 3s -- but he is still very much learning how to play, and now he may be asked to slide off the ball more than his skill set suggests given Doncic's pick-and-roll playmaking.
Smith actually finished in the 63rd percentile on catch-and-shoot jumpers out of spot-ups last season. He can convert. But is he willing to stay shot-ready and make the right decision when the ball comes to him? He still has a lot of catch-and-hold (or catch-and-rhythm-dribble) in his arsenal, struggling to make quick decisions within the flow of the game. On top of that, Smith isn't the most active cutter, regularly saving as much energy as he can when he's not handling the ball. He wants isolations, as seen by the fact that he had the 17th-most direct isolation possessions in the NBA last season, ranking 72nd in points per direct iso among 91 players with 100 chances.
Given his explosiveness as a shot-creator, Smith will surely still have his fair share of pick-and-roll possessions, but he'll have to quickly learn how to play off instincts when operating off the ball. In addition to Doncic, Carlisle has an uber-efficient rookie in Brunson on the bench ready to earn his keep, plus veteran guard J.J. Barea. Brunson has already proven he's comfortable playing on or off the ball, and he's a much more adept catch-and-shoot player than Smith, while adding more value defensively.
Smith opened some eyes with a strong rookie summer league and some monster highlights, but he quietly had an inefficient season. Given Dallas' roster, it's important for him to learn how to co-exist in lineups with multiple ball-handlers by upping his off-ball impact.