Which NBA front offices won the summer?
With the start of training camp just a few weeks away for most teams, the most important part of the NBA offseason has concluded. Let's take this opportunity to review and evaluate how well teams added -- and subtracted -- from their rosters, given where they started in terms of draft picks, cap room and maneuverability. After starting with the Western Conference, today we'll evaluate the East.
A quick note on my grading scale: To avoid grade inflation, a "C" grade means a team did as well as we would reasonably expect, given its options. Any grade better than that means the team improved its outlook for this season or the long term, while a weaker grade means the team hurt its chances in my view.
W-L projections | Summer Forecast
Atlanta Hawks: D-
The Hawks' three biggest moves of the offseason involved point guards coming and going. When Luka Doncic slipped to Atlanta at the third pick, the Hawks opted to trade down two spots and take Oklahoma point guard Trae Young, picking up a future first-rounder from the Dallas Mavericks in the process. After an up (Las Vegas) and down (Salt Lake City) summer-league run from Young, Atlanta could regret passing on Doncic if he lives up to his statistical projections.
Atlanta used much of its cap space on adding Jeremy Lin, coming off a ruptured patella, as a veteran mentor to share time with Young. With a crowd at the point, the Hawks sent incumbent starter Dennis Schroder to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of a deal taking back Carmelo Anthony's contract. That trade could yield a first-round pick, but only if the Thunder make the playoffs in 2022.
Boston Celtics: C
Having signed Al Horford and Gordon Hayward in free agency the previous two seasons, the Celtics largely sat this summer out, re-signing Aron Baynes and Jabari Bird, and bringing Brad Wanamaker back from Europe to replace Shane Larkin.
Boston's most meaningful long-term move was surely drafting Robert Williams, who slipped on draft night and could prove a steal if he can manage to avoid oversleeping.
Brooklyn Nets: A
Though it might not translate into a playoff run this season, the Nets managed to improve both their short- and long-term fortunes with a masterful offseason. That started with swapping Timofey Mozgov for Dwight Howard, a move that allowed Brooklyn to shed $16.7 million in 2019-20 salary at the cost of $2.8 million in 2018 cap space, a pair of second-round picks and cash. The Nets still found room to take on expiring contracts and pick up the Denver Nuggets' protected 2019 first-round pick by finding a taker for Jeremy Lin.
For this season, Brooklyn improved its depth by adding Ed Davis and Shabazz Napier in free agency on deals that will pay them a combined $6.5 million. The one move the Nets might regret is re-signing Joe Harris to a two-year, $16 million deal that cuts into their 2019 cap space. Nonetheless, they can still get more than $50 million below the cap.
Charlotte Hornets: F
A perplexing offseason saw the Hornets decide to trade Dwight Howard to Brooklyn rather than simply buying him out, a move that saved $1.8 million this season but added $17 million in 2019-20 salary in the form of Bismack Biyombo, acquired from the Orlando Magic for Timofey Mozgov. Given Biyombo performed worse than a replacement-level center in Orlando, Charlotte would have been better off replacing Howard with a minimum-salary pickup like Greg Monroe.
Worse yet, the Hornets used the savings to sign Tony Parker coming off a season in which his .498 true shooting percentage ranked 24th-worst among players who played at least 1,000 minutes. Parker is unlikely to fill Charlotte's void at point guard behind All-Star Kemba Walker. Lottery pick Miles Bridges could make this offseason look better down the road, but for now the Hornets have hampered their chances of getting back to the playoffs after a two-year absence.
Chicago Bulls: D+
After the dust cleared on the early days of free agency, the Bulls retained more cap space than any other team, putting them in position to extract maximum value from teams looking to dump salary. Instead, Chicago chose to accelerate its rebuild by signing Jabari Parker to a two-year, $40 million deal with a team option for 2019-20.
Now Bulls fans are hoping to contend for a playoff spot, but our projections based on ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) have them still near the bottom of the East. That's largely because both Parker and Zach LaVine, whose four-year, $78 million offer sheet from the Sacramento Kings was matched by Chicago, project as below average by RPM. In the long term, the Bulls' offseason would be redeemed if Wendell Carter Jr. proves to be the steal at the seventh pick that he appeared to be in Vegas.
Cleveland Cavaliers: C-
By this summer, there was surely nothing the Cavaliers could have done to prevent LeBron James from leaving, so we're grading only on their other summer moves.
Cleveland nabbed Collin Sexton as an heir apparent at point guard, but the big decision was giving Kevin Love a four-year extension worth an average of $30 million. The deal could pay off if Love has more trade value than as a possible expiring contract. Yet the Cavaliers are taking a huge risk that Love won't fall off and leave them overpaying for declining production in his 30s.
Detroit Pistons: B
Stan Van Gundy lost his dual roles as head coach and president of basketball operations after a second consecutive lottery season. While the process of replacing Van Gundy starting with a senior adviser (Ed Stefanski) was unorthodox, the Pistons were able to hire the reigning Coach of the Year (Dwane Casey) to step in on the sidelines.
With limited resources, Detroit did well to grab one of the top wings on the market (Glenn Robinson III) on a two-year, $8 million deal with the second season a team option.
Indiana Pacers: B-
After beating low expectations last season, the Pacers weren't content to stand pat and added to their bench in free agency while maintaining flexibility for next season. Alas, the one long-term deal Indiana handed out to forward Doug McDermott (three years, $22 million) looks like an overpay given McDermott's defensive shortcomings.
However, a one-year, $12 million deal for Tyreke Evans could be one of the summer's better values, and Kyle O'Quinn (one year, $4.45 million) is an upgrade over Al Jefferson as backup center.
Miami Heat: C
No team has had a quieter offseason than the Heat, who have yet to add a single outside player on a guaranteed contract and made no draft picks. Miami brought back shooting guard Wayne Ellington on a one-year, $6.3 million deal that seems completely fair and also re-signed forward Derrick Jones Jr., who was on a two-way deal last season.
Still to be resolved is the future of Heat legend Dwyane Wade, whose contract will determine just how far into the luxury tax Miami will push.
Milwaukee Bucks: B
The defining decision of the Bucks' offseason will surely be hiring Mike Budenholzer as a long-term replacement for Jason Kidd, who was fired midway through the 2017-18 season. Milwaukee is counting on Budenholzer to get more out of a solid core of talent that has yet to reach 45 wins during Giannis Antetokounmpo's career.
The Bucks added around that core, signing Ersan Ilyasova to a deal guaranteeing him $14 million over the next two years, which might prove an overpay. Milwaukee got much better value on a one-year, $3.4 million deal for center Brook Lopez, who should upgrade a position that was a huge weakness last season.
New York Knicks: B-
First, the best news: The Knicks avoided any bad long-term deals that would prevent them from creating cap space next summer with the expected stretch of Joakim Noah's 2019-20 salary. New York also got exciting play from draft picks Kevin Knox and Mitchell Robinson at summer league, though -- much like during his season at Kentucky -- Knox's advanced stats didn't quite match the glowing reviews of his ability to create contested shots. Robinson, by contrast, reinforced confidence he'll prove a second-round steal.
The Knicks' insistence on one-year deals will limit the value they get from their marquee addition in free agency, Mario Hezonja. If Hezonja breaks out in New York, the Knicks will have to use their cap space to re-sign him. Alternatively, if Hezonja struggles as he did much of his three years in Orlando, a $6.5 million salary will prove an overpay.
Orlando Magic: C
Re-signing Aaron Gordon for substantially less than the max was a win for the Magic, who got him back on a contract that pays him an average of $19 million and declines over time. Yet Orlando added only journeyman Jerian Grant to a point guard rotation that remains its weakness. Grant projects more as a solid backup than a long-term solution at the position.
It remains to be seen whether No. 6 overall pick Mohamed Bamba will prove a good value in that spot.
Philadelphia 76ers: C
Operating as a makeshift front office led in the interim by head coach Brett Brown after Bryan Colangelo's resignation following a Twitter scandal, the Sixers managed to keep their eyes on the long term. Brown's signature move, swapping No. 10 pick Mikal Bridges for No. 16 pick Zhaire Smith and a 2021 first-round pick, will hurt the team in the short term -- particularly after Smith underwent surgery to repair a Jones fracture in his left foot. However, down the road the unprotected pick from the Miami Heat could have a huge payoff.
After unsuccessfully attempting to lure LeBron to Philly, the 76ers focused on one-year deals that will allow them to potentially create max cap space again next summer. A one-year, $12 million deal for JJ Redick was a good value, but Philadelphia didn't get much compensation in return for taking on the final season of Wilson Chandler's $12.8 million contract, and the Sixers might have been better off pursuing Evans on a similar deal to the one he got from the Pacers.
Toronto Raptors: A
The Raptors made the biggest splash of any contender this offseason, landing disgruntled superstar Kawhi Leonard from the San Antonio Spurs for a package of DeMar DeRozan and backup center Jakob Poeltl. The move is a risky one, given Leonard can leave via free agency next summer and missed all but nine games of 2017-18 because of a mysterious quadriceps injury.
If Leonard can stay healthy, however, Toronto might just be the favorite in the Eastern Conference. (The Raptors have the East's best RPM projection.) Remember, Toronto also got Danny Green in the deal, adding to enviable wing depth that could allow the Raptors to stay afloat if Leonard misses time. Replacing Poeltl with Greg Monroe at the veteran's minimum was also a coup, as was re-signing Fred VanVleet to a reasonable two-year, $18 million contract. The big question is whether Toronto would have turned to first-time NBA head coach Nick Nurse as Casey's replacement had the Raptors known they were going to get Leonard, putting pressure on them to win this season.
Washington Wizards: B-
Given their constraints as a taxpaying team, the Wizards did well to improve their depth and get more athletic at center. Signing Dwight Howard is certainly a gamble given how poorly his time with his past three teams have ended. But Howard should be an upgrade on Marcin Gortat, particularly if he focuses on playing pick-and-roll with John Wall rather than a misguided effort to become more versatile.
Washington swapped Gortat for Austin Rivers, who joins Tomas Satoransky and Kelly Oubre Jr. in a suddenly flush perimeter rotation. Add in Jeff Green, signed for the veteran's minimum, and the Wizards appear to have improved their bench.