Which NBA front offices won the summer?
With the start of training camp just four weeks away for most teams, the most important part of the NBA offseason has concluded. Let's take this opportunity to review and evaluate how well teams added -- and subtracted -- from their rosters, given where they started in terms of draft picks, cap room and maneuverability. We'll start with the Western Conference before evaluating the East later this week.
A quick note on my grading scale: To avoid grade inflation, a "C" grade means a team did as well as we would reasonably expect, given its options. Any grade better than that means the team improved its outlook for this season or the long term, while a weaker grade means the team hurt its chances in my view.
W-L projections | Summer Forecast
Dallas Mavericks: B+
The Mavericks' decision to use the bulk of their cap space on signing DeAndre Jordan to a one-year deal has pros and cons. In a market where no other team was aggressively pursuing a center -- after Jordan's $22.9 million, the next-highest 2018-19 salary for a 5 who changed teams was $8.6 million for Julius Randle -- Dallas might have been able to drive a harder bargain. At the same time, a one-year deal allows the Mavericks to better evaluate their young talent before jumping back into free agency next summer.
Ultimately, Dallas' summer will be defined by the risky move to trade up and take Luka Doncic with the No. 3 overall pick. If Doncic is the kind of star his statistical projections indicate, or anything close, the Mavericks' summer could prove a turning point in the franchise's rebuild.
Denver Nuggets: B
The Nuggets' offseason was highlighted by a pair of gambles on players available to them because of health concerns. Generally considered a top-five talent in the draft, Michael Porter Jr. slipped to the 14th pick due to a back injury that required a second surgery this summer. Meanwhile, Denver was able to grab 2016-17 All-NBA Second Team pick Isaiah Thomas for the veterans minimum in free agency after a hip labrum injury marred his 2017-18 campaign. While only time will tell whether those gambles pay off, the price appears reasonable on both.
The overarching goal for the Nuggets this summer was to avoid paying the luxury tax after re-signing budding star Nikola Jokic to a max deal as a restricted free agent. That cost them a protected 2019 first-round pick, sent to Brooklyn with Darrell Arthur and Kenneth Faried, but offloading Wilson Chandler to the Philadelphia 76ers may prove addition by subtraction. Will Barton, newly re-signed for four years and $53 million, should be an upgrade over Chandler in the starting five.
Golden State Warriors: A-
Though DeMarcus Cousins' addition may not be the game-changer critics fear, getting an All-NBA talent for the $5.3 million taxpayer midlevel exception is nonetheless a home run for the Warriors.
Elsewhere, they maintained depth on the cheap by re-signing Kevon Looney and adding Jonas Jerebko on deals for the veterans minimum, though focusing on the frontcourt leaves them hoping that first-round pick Jacob Evans can add needed wing depth.
Houston Rockets: D+
The Rockets can feel good about getting restricted free agent Clint Capela back on a five-year deal worth a maximum of $90 million, which helped ease their luxury-tax burden. They also nabbed quality talent at the veterans minimum in James Ennis and a re-signed Gerald Green. If he buys into a smaller role, there's reason to believe Carmelo Anthony could be a strong value at the minimum too.
Still, the core of the improved defense that got Houston within a game of the NBA Finals took a heavy hit with the departures of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute in free agency. While the downgrade from Ariza to Anthony and Ennis might not make a huge difference in the regular season, it figures to cost the Rockets when they match up against elite opposition in the playoffs.
LA Clippers: C
The Clippers spent their 2018 offseason keeping an eye on the summer of 2019, handing out only one contract in free agency that's fully guaranteed beyond 2018-19 (to center Montrezl Harrell, re-signed as a restricted free agent). With that constraint, the Clippers bolstered their depth by adding veterans Mbah a Moute and Mike Scott on one-year deals and bringing back Avery Bradley on a contract that has just $2 million guaranteed for 2019-20.
As a result, the Clippers can create more than $50 million in cap space next summer while remaining competitive now. However, our projections using ESPN's real plus-minus suggest they are unlikely to reach the playoffs with this makeshift roster.
Los Angeles Lakers: A-
Consider this really the product of two grades. The Lakers get an A-plus for landing the NBA's best player, LeBron James, as a free agent after years of striking out in free agency. However, their moves after signing James are something more like a D. The Lakers paid heavily for Rajon Rondo and Lance Stephenson, free agents who appear ill-suited to play off the ball alongside LeBron but fit into the team's contrarian vision of making James more of a finisher than a playmaker.
The upside is even if the Lakers' moves beyond LeBron indeed flop, they aren't committed to any of those free agents beyond this season. That gives the Lakers the chance to go shopping for a max free agent again next summer to complement LeBron and a core of young talent accumulated through the draft.
Memphis Grizzlies: C+
A return to the grit 'n' grind philosophy that produced the Grizzlies' greatest success seems to have informed their summer moves. Second-round pick Jevon Carter is a classic Memphis player, as is guard Garrett Temple, acquired in a trade with the Sacramento Kings. And though forward Kyle Anderson doesn't have the same reputation for toughness, the Grizzlies' marquee pickup in free agency had a strong, positive impact on the San Antonio Spurs' defense the past two seasons.
With upgraded talent in supporting roles, the question is whether Memphis' stars -- Mike Conley and Marc Gasol -- can stay healthy and productive enough to produce a return to the playoffs after a one-year absence. RPM projections suggest the Grizzlies will still be outside the playoff picture, in which case their most important addition will surely prove to be No. 4 overall pick Jaren Jackson Jr. Though Jackson is something of a project, he impressed in summer-league play.
Minnesota Timberwolves: C-
A relatively quiet offseason saw the Timberwolves replace restricted free agent Nemanja Bjelica with veteran Anthony Tolliver, signed for one year and $5.75 million.
Because Tolliver is no longer capable of playing on the wing, that aspect of Bjelica's role will have to be filled by a combination of a re-signed Derrick Rose, rookies Keita Bates-Diop and Josh Okogie, and sharpshooting minimum signing James Nunnally. None is likely to be as effective as Bjelica.
New Orleans Pelicans: B
Instead of re-signing Cousins to a risky contract coming off his Achilles injury, the Pelicans decided to pivot this summer. They used their taxpayer midlevel exception to add Randle after the Lakers withdrew their qualifying offer to the restricted free agent, who will team with Anthony Davis and Nikola Mirotic in a versatile frontcourt.
New Orleans also found a cheaper replacement for Rondo at point guard, signing Elfrid Payton to a buy-low one-year, $3 million deal. The Pelicans may be challenged to re-sign both Payton and Randle next summer, presuming Randle declines a $9.1 million player option. But for now they look to have upgraded a team that won a playoff series last spring.
Oklahoma City Thunder: B+
The Thunder had one of the NBA's most fascinating offseasons, starting with Paul George not only re-signing but committing to three more years in Oklahoma City (plus a player option). The Thunder also brought back free agent Jerami Grant and added Nerlens Noel at the veterans minimum to bolster their frontcourt depth.
To mitigate a potentially historic tax bill with those new contracts, Oklahoma City swapped Anthony's contract to the Atlanta Hawks for backup point guard Dennis Schroder, giving up a heavily protected first-round pick in the deal. If Schroder can thrive playing behind and with Russell Westbrook, the Thunder may prove better equipped to battle the West's best teams. But with a payroll that still will likely top $200 million, contention appears a must.
Phoenix Suns: D+
Few teams added more to the roster than the Suns, who ended up with a pair of lottery picks -- including No. 1 overall selection Deandre Ayton -- and made a splash in free agency by signing Ariza. Remember, though, that these grades are relative to expectation and a team that starts with the top pick and $15 million in cap space should be expected to improve dramatically.
Questions linger about whether Phoenix made the right use of its tools this summer. Though Ayton played well in Las Vegas, it remains unclear whether he can be the defensive anchor necessary to star as a modern center. Trading up for Mikal Bridges cost the Suns an unprotected 2021 first-round pick and Phoenix has a crowd on the wing with Bridges and Ariza joining holdovers Devin Booker (signed to a max extension that will kick in for 2019-20), Josh Jackson and T.J. Warren. And the Suns did little to address their weak rotation at point guard, instead relying on a combination of second-round pick Elie Okobo, G League product Shaquille Harrison and Brandon Knight coming back from an ACL tear.
Portland Trail Blazers: C-
After getting swept out of the playoffs as the No. 3 seed, the Blazers brought back their starting five but made over their bench. Center Jusuf Nurkic, a restricted free agent, signed a new four-year deal with $40 million guaranteed that seems reasonable for both sides. However, Portland lost reserves Pat Connaughton, Ed Davis and Shabazz Napier in free agency.
Presuming he's able to avoid a recurrence of the stress injuries that wiped out his 2017-18 season, Seth Curry should be able to replace the shooting and playmaking provided by Connaughton and Napier. Filling the void left by Davis' departure will be up to second-year players Zach Collins and Caleb Swanigan, who might not be up to the task.
Sacramento Kings: D
The Kings are betting big on No. 2 overall pick Marvin Bagley III, whose inefficiency during four summer appearances suggests he might fall short of my pessimistic projections for his rookie campaign.
After having a lavish offer to restricted free agent Zach LaVine matched by the Chicago Bulls, the Kings landed a pair of free agents who backed out of verbal commitments elsewhere. A two-year, $6 million deal for Yogi Ferrell that is not fully guaranteed looks like a good value, but Sacramento may have overpaid for Bjelica (guaranteed $13.3 million over the next two years) given the Kings aren't likely to contend with him on the roster.
San Antonio Spurs: D
Your opinion of the Spurs' offseason probably comes down to how you evaluate the package they got for Kawhi Leonard.
I'm not a fan because San Antonio got no draft picks and perhaps the least promising of the Toronto Raptors' young prospects in Jakob Poeltl while giving up starter Danny Green. The Spurs also lost Leonard's fill-in last year, Anderson. In conjunction with DeMar DeRozan's poor rating, that helps explain why San Antonio is projected to slip below .500 by RPM.
Utah Jazz: C-
Of the 17 players on the Jazz's roster at the end of last season, 14 will return after the team guaranteed the contracts of reserves Thabo Sefolosha and Ekpe Udoh and re-signed free agents Dante Exum, Derrick Favors and Raul Neto. That's probably a good thing for a team that won a playoff series and has the second-best average projection in the West from RPM, but it came at a high price in free agency.
Favors got $16 million guaranteed for next season, plus $2.8 million in incentives, in order to accept a deal that is non-guaranteed for 2019-20. And Exum's three-year deal worth a minimum of $27 million will require him to stay healthy and build on his solid finish to last season lest it prove an overpay. Exum's contract cuts into Utah's 2019 cap space, which still could be in the neighborhood of $40 million without Favors.