Which other 2014 first-round picks will sign contract extensions?
So far, No. 3 overall pick Joel Embiid, No. 14 pick T.J. Warren and No. 19 pick Gary Harris have agreed to extensions of their rookie contracts that will kick in during the 2018-19 season. That leaves a handful of important players still eligible to do so.
Players and teams have until next Monday to agree to extensions, with the alternative being that players finishing out their rookie contracts will become restricted free agents next summer. So who will join the three extensions completed so far? Let's take a look.
Likely
Andrew Wiggins
Pick: No. 1
Minnesota Timberwolves
Forward/guard
Why Wiggins hasn't signed the max extension the Timberwolves have offered him remains one of the great mysteries of training camp. While the team was in China, Wiggins told Sam Amick of USA Today he was in no rush to sign. Well, there's starting to be a rush. Still, Wiggins is the most certain player to join the ranks of 2014 draft rookie extensions.
Possible
Aaron Gordon
Pick: No. 4
Orlando Magic
Forward
Gordon seems like a good candidate for an extension that could distribute the risk evenly between player and team. While it's possible Gordon could break out as a starting power forward, having averaged 16.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game on 50.3 percent shooting in that role after the All-Star break, a disappointing season could leave him out in the cold in restricted free agency.
So it's a little surprising Zach Lowe mentioned in his NBA League Pass rankings that neither Gordon nor teammate Elfrid Payton seems likely to sign an extension.
Elfrid Payton
Pick: No. 10
Orlando Magic
Guard
Speaking of Payton, he's exactly the kind of player I'd sign to a rookie extension. Point guards have tended to provide good value on extensions, given they develop later than their peers at other positions. Payton is just 23 and averaged 13.5 points, 8.4 assists and 7.0 rebounds per game after the All-Star break, when he was provided real spacing. Sign me up for the next four years of his career if he'll come at less than $15 million per year.
Zach LaVine
Pick: No. 13
Chicago Bulls
Guard
The Bulls believed in LaVine's future enough to make him a key part of the package they got for All-Star Jimmy Butler, so it's possible they're willing to sign him to an extension as he works back from the torn ACL that ended his 2016-17 campaign prematurely. There's little rush, though; any LaVine extension will surely start at more than his $9.6 million cap hold as a restricted free agent.
Jusuf Nurkic
Pick: No. 16
Portland Trail Blazers
Center
Because the Blazers are already pushing the 2018-19 luxury tax line, every dollar counts when it comes to a new contract for Nurkic. If he gets to restricted free agency, Nurkic might have a hard time getting a big offer sheet because few of the teams with cap space are in need of centers. Yet Portland risks some team coming in with a huge offer sheet knowing the Blazers would almost certainly match. (You might recall Portland signing Enes Kanter to a similar offer sheet, which was matched by the Oklahoma City Thunder.)
So there could be room for a deal similar to the value Harris got ($74 million over four years, with incentives that could pay him $84 million), though Nurkic seems like the type of player willing to bet on his own value skyrocketing.
Rodney Hood
Pick: No. 23
Utah Jazz
Guard
Hood's box-score advanced stats have never matched the hype about his ability as a shooter and playmaker. (He has yet to score with a true shooting percentage better than league average.) Still, Hood has the opportunity to become Utah's go-to scorer with the departure of Gordon Hayward.
First, he has to stay healthy after missing 23 games last season due primarily to a bone contusion in his right knee. How many games Hood plays this season will go a long way in determining which side might regret not agreeing to an extension before the deadline.
Unlikely
Jabari Parker
Pick: No. 2
Milwaukee Bucks
Forward
If Parker were healthy, negotiations on an extension might not be difficult. But after he tore his left ACL a second time in three NBA seasons, Parker remains sidelined, and the Bucks might be reluctant to commit major dollars before seeing him play post-injury.
There is incentive for Milwaukee to lock in Parker at a discount if he's interested in security, however, since the luxury tax would be a major issue in 2018-19 if Parker gets a max offer sheet in restricted free agency.
Marcus Smart
Pick: No. 6
Boston Celtics
Guard
Smart confirmed to reporters Monday he hasn't heard from the Celtics regarding a possible extension, which is surprising given his important role as Boston's best perimeter defender after the loss of Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder. (It's possible Smart was the Celtics' best perimeter defender even with them, but that's neither here nor there.)
Boston is already over the 2018-19 salary cap including team options, so the Celtics don't benefit in terms of flexibility from waiting. They must believe that Smart could get squeezed in restricted free agency because of the limitations to his game.
Clint Capela
Pick: No. 25
Houston Rockets
Center
There's an interesting debate to be had between Capela and Nurkic as the more valuable international center drafted in the 2014 first round. (The second round also featured Nurkic's former Denver teammate Nikola Jokic, who is not extension eligible.) While Nurkic perhaps has more upside thanks to his shot creation and playmaking, Capela is the more reliable pick-and-roll option.
I suspect the Rockets will likely let him get to restricted free agency to maintain flexibility with Capela's small cap hold, but if he's willing to sign on for less than $15 million a year in the name of security, perhaps something gets done.
Long shots
Dante Exum
Pick: No. 5
Utah Jazz
Guard
Any chance the Jazz and Exum might find common ground on a relatively small extension surely was extinguished when he suffered a separated left shoulder in last Friday's preseason game against Phoenix. With Exum possibly losing a second full season in three years to injury, and his value uncertain even before the injury, an extension no longer passes the "any chance" rule.
Julius Randle
Pick: No. 7
L.A. Lakers
Forward
Even if Randle's place in the Lakers' hierarchy was secure, they'd have reason to wait on an extension because of their desire to clear room to sign two max free agents next summer. Unless the Lakers trade both Jordan Clarkson and Luol Deng, renouncing Randle's cap hold will almost certainly be part of the path to getting there. So the Lakers will wait and consider using Randle as the carrot to get another team to take back the salary of Clarkson or Deng.
Nik Stauskas
Pick: No. 8
Philadelphia 76ers
Guard
After two ineffective seasons, Stauskas made progress toward becoming an NBA contributor last season, hitting 36.8 percent of his 3s. However, his poor defense meant Stauskas still rated worse than replacement level, and the Sixers have too many other wing options to commit to him beyond this season.
Noah Vonleh
Pick: No. 9
Portland Trail Blazers
Forward
As Nate Duncan noted on the Dunc'd On mock extension podcast, unproven players rarely agree to the kinds of low-value extensions that might actually end up better for them than testing free agency. Vonleh missing training camp because of a shoulder strain has also allowed younger alternatives Zach Collins and Caleb Swanigan to establish themselves as challengers for playing time.
Doug McDermott
Pick: No. 11
New York Knicks
Forward
It's unclear at this point whether the Knicks saw McDermott as part of the value they got in return for Carmelo Anthony or merely matching salary. Unless New York really believes in McDermott's future, waiting to revisit his contract next summer makes sense.
Lucas Nogueira
Pick: No. 16
Toronto Raptors
Center
Though he was drafted in 2013, Nogueira came to the NBA a year later and therefore is eligible for a rookie extension with 2014 picks. He's rated well on a per-minute basis, including a shockingly good plus-2.7 rating per 100 possessions in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), but is currently buried behind Jonas Valanciunas and Jakob Poeltl on the depth chart. The Raptors will presumably wait and see if they move Valanciunas by next summer before making a decision on Nogueira's future.
Bruno Caboclo
Pick: No. 20
Toronto Raptors
Forward
Having played just 106 NBA minutes in three seasons, Caboclo remains very much an unknown quantity at age 22. His 2-of-15 shooting during the preseason (13 of the 15 attempts have been 3s) is not encouraging for his chances of helping this season.
Shabazz Napier
Pick: No. 24
Portland Trail Blazers
Guard
On his third team in as many years, Napier established himself as an NBA player last season in Portland, but he's probably most likely to play for the minimum in 2018-19.
Kyle Anderson
Pick: No. 30
San Antonio Spurs
Forward
Anderson has carved out a rotation role as a reserve, yet still probably falls in the category of players who wouldn't have enough value for an extension to make sense.
Ineligible
Dario Saric
Pick: No. 12
Philadelphia 76ers
Forward
Because he did not come to the NBA until last season, Saric still has three years remaining on his rookie contract and won't be eligible for an extension until the summer of 2019.
Adreian Payne
Pick: No. 15
Orlando Magic
Forward
Payne had his fourth-year team option declined and signed a two-way contract with the Magic.
James Young
Pick: No. 17
Team: N/A
Guard
Young had his fourth-year option declined by the Boston Celtics and was recently waived by the Milwaukee Bucks.
Tyler Ennis
Pick: No. 18
L.A. Lakers
Guard
Ennis had his fourth-year option declined and re-signed with the Lakers as a free agent last summer.
Mitch McGary
Pick: No. 12
Team: N/A
Center
Waived by the Oklahoma City Thunder last October, McGary faces a 15-game suspension through the NBA's anti-drug program in the unlikely event he returns to the league.
Jordan Adams
Pick: No. 22
Team: N/A
Guard
Adams was able to return from a knee cartilage transplant to play for the Blazers' team at the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas, but was ineffective and remains unsigned.
P.J. Hairston
Pick: No. 26
Team: N/A
Guard
Hairston spent last season in the G League after his third-year option was declined.
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Pick: No. 27
Sacramento Kings
Forward
Bogdanovic is a rookie this season, having remained in Europe for three years before signing with the Kings this summer.
CJ Wilcox
Pick: No. 28
Portland Trail Blazers
Guard
After having his fourth-year option declined, Wilcox signed a two-way contract with the Blazers.
Josh Huestis
Pick: No. 29
Oklahoma City Thunder
Forward
Because he agreed to spend a year in the G League before signing with the Thunder, Huestis is entering the third year of his rookie contract.