What does Nerlens Noel's decision to take his one-year qualifying offer mean for him and the Dallas Mavericks?
With no long-term offer apparently on the table from the Mavericks and no offer sheet forthcoming from other teams so late in the summer, Noel decided to pass on restricted free agency and try his chances again next year as an unrestricted free agent.
Let's take a look at the implications of that move for the future of Dallas and Noel.
Noel's market might not improve next summer
I don't think the limited interest from other teams should be construed as a statement about Noel's basketball ability. Rather, he fit into two groups that have had a tough time getting value in free agency this summer: centers and restricted free agents.
Just two restricted free agents (Tim Hardaway Jr. and Otto Porter) have signed offer sheets with other teams this summer, leaving the rest to try to squeeze value out of their current teams. Before Noel accepted his qualifying offer, five restricted free agents were still unsigned late in the offseason. Not coincidentally, three of them were centers: Noel, Alex Len of the Phoenix Suns and Mason Plumlee of the Denver Nuggets.
Noel and his new agent, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports Group, are counting on his market improving because he won't be restricted next summer. Indeed, teams won't have to worry about the Mavericks matching any reasonable offer sheet to Noel, which surely limited interest in him this year.
At the same time, Noel will be trying to find a big offer in a market with less cap space available than this summer. Right now I project that just six teams will have enough room to make Noel a bigger offer than the four-year, $70 million he reportedly turned down from Dallas (per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski) at the start of free agency.
Of those six teams, four appear unlikely to make an offer to Noel for various reasons. The L.A. Lakers will be focused on using their cap space to add two max-level All-Stars, while the Indiana Pacers (Myles Turner) and Utah Jazz (Rudy Gobert) are set at center. The Philadelphia 76ers, Noel's former team, probably aren't interested in a reunion and presumably have their money earmarked for an addition on the wing anyway.
That would leave Noel counting on a big offer from one of the two other teams with significant cap space: the Atlanta Hawks, who could have more than $30 million in room if centers Dewayne Dedmon and Mike Muscala decline player options, and the Chicago Bulls, who will likely have more than $40 million in cap space and might consider Noel an upgrade over veteran Robin Lopez and Cristiano Felicio.
If the Bulls and Hawks aren't interested, Noel might find himself in a situation similar to this summer. He's also counting on getting the kind of contract few centers have received this offseason. Pau Gasol's three-year, $49 million deal was the largest signed by any full-time center so far in 2017 free agency. Since few teams need centers, and since the supply of big men capable of producing at a league-average level exceeds demand, the market for centers has crashed.
Mavericks maintain flexibility, might lose Noel
Noel's decision to take the qualifying offer is something of a mixed blessing from Dallas' standpoint. On the plus side, they get him at a bargain rate this season. In 2016-17, Noel conveniently finished one start shy of qualifying for "starter criteria" -- a minimum of 41 starts or 2,000 minutes the previous season, or over the average of the previous two -- so he'll make just $4.1 million this season, slightly less than his 2016-17 salary.
If the Mavericks had re-signed Noel to a long-term deal, they could have gone over the salary cap depending on his starting salary. Now they unexpectedly find themselves with about $12 million in cap space. That could allow Dallas to take on salary from a team looking to cut payroll midseason, netting the Mavericks draft picks in the process. The Bulls and Sixers are the only teams with more cap space than Dallas, though the Suns could join them if Len also signs his qualifying offer.
The Mavericks also might benefit from Noel's relatively small $8 million cap hold next summer, when they will likely be under the cap depending on some player and team options. That figure is likely less than the starting salary Noel would make on a long-term deal, allowing Dallas to use cap space and then go over the cap to re-sign him.
That noted, there's little historical precedent for players returning to their teams after settling for a qualifying offer. Of the 20 players who have taken Noel's route, only Spencer Hawes ended up re-signing with the same team the following summer, per HoopsRumors.com.
I'd probably prefer to have Noel on a one-year, $4.2 million deal than the four-year, $70 million offer the Mavericks made, but this decision surely increases their chances of losing him in free agency next summer.
Will Noel start a qualifying offer trend?
As that previous stat suggests, it's relatively rare for players to take their qualifying offers. Yet Noel might not be alone among this year's remaining restricted free agents in signing his.
Depending on how realistic their expectations are, the other players could still be able to use the threat of taking the qualifying offer to work out a long-term deal with their teams. That's happened before after protracted stalemates, most notably with Paul clients Eric Bledsoe and Tristan Thompson. (Thompson's deal wasn't struck until deep into training camp.)
At this point, I'd give JaMychal Green (Memphis Grizzlies) and Nikola Mirotic (Chicago Bulls) the best chances of signing long-term deals with their current teams. Len's value is low enough that he might not make much more than his $4.2 million qualifying offer as an unrestricted free agent, while Plumlee could have a tough time getting Denver to commit long term because the team's payroll is likely to leap next summer when Gary Harris and Nikola Jokic are potentially in line for massive raises. So odds are Noel won't be the only restricted free agent who bets on himself by signing a qualifying offer.