The deal
Cavaliers get: Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Ante Zizic, Nets' 2018 first-round pick, Heat's 2020 second-round pick
Celtics get: Kyrie Irving
(See the original trade grade analysis here.)
Cleveland Cavaliers
Original grade: A
New grade: A-minus
Without having access to Thomas' medical reports, it's a bit difficult to determine how much his injury should change our perspective of the value the Cavaliers received in this trade.
If Cleveland's primary concern is the possibility that Thomas' return to the court will be delayed beyond the start of the upcoming season -- a possibility he hinted at in his conversation with ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski earlier this week -- then I don't think that's a big issue.
The Cavaliers have proved repeatedly over the last three seasons that they don't need home-court advantage to win in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but they should have a reasonable cushion anyway. The latest version of our projections using ESPN's real plus-minus -- which assumes Thomas will play a full season (77 games, with the assumption he'll miss five due to minor injuries) -- has Cleveland seven full games ahead of the next-best team in the East.
Of course, the equation changes dramatically if Thomas is unable to play at all in 2017-18. ESPN's Zach Lowe reported Tuesday that sources believe there's at least a slight chance of that worst-case scenario, which would leave the Cavaliers with Derrick Rose and Jose Calderon as their options at point guard -- both significant downgrades from Thomas' production.
To be the clear favorites in the East, and to have a chance at knocking off the Golden State Warriors or a team that upsets the Warriors in the West, Cleveland needs Thomas to be healthy and productive. Any assessment of this trade package turns on just how likely that is to be the case.
From a long-term perspective, this deal still looks like a huge win for the Cavaliers. No other package they were likely to get for Irving would have included a single draft pick (or equivalent prospect) as valuable as Brooklyn's unprotected 2018 first-round pick. While we shouldn't expect that pick to land automatically in the top three, that's a reasonable possibility, and no other team would likely have offered a pick with so much upside.
From a cynical perspective, haggling over Thomas' hip might pay off for Cleveland next summer if the team tries to re-sign him as an unrestricted free agent. Given the limited number of teams with significant cap space and Thomas' age and size, the max offer he's expecting seemed like a long shot. If Thomas' hip scares off suitors, the Cavaliers may end up having the ability to re-sign him at a relative bargain price.
So it's understandable that Cleveland was willing to settle for a small addition to this trade to finalize it, particularly if the Celtics were forthcoming with them about Thomas' condition as Lowe indicated. (Which is not to say that the Cavaliers requesting additional compensation was unreasonable; different medical staffs can and often do draw different conclusions about the long-term health of the same player.)
Let's be clear that what Cleveland did get -- a 2020 second-round pick originally from the Miami Heat, who sent it to Boston to get the Celtics to take on the guaranteed salary of guard Zoran Dragic in the summer of 2015 -- shouldn't change our assessment of this deal much, if at all. Given the Heat's limited cap flexibility, they could end up in the lottery by 2020, making this a reasonably valuable pick. More likely, it will be the kind of midround pick that is regularly bought and sold for a couple million dollars each year on draft night.
The pick signifies a moral victory more than anything else for the Cavaliers at the conclusion of this unusual standoff over completing a blockbuster trade agreed to more than a week ago.
Boston Celtics
Original grade: C
New grade: B-minus
In a conference call with reporters after the trade was announced last week, Celtics GM and president of basketball operations Danny Ainge admitted that Thomas' health was a factor in the decision to trade him.
Because Boston was more certain to re-sign Thomas than Cleveland is now -- whether the Cavs bring Thomas back will depend in large part on what happens with LeBron James' potential free agency next summer -- Thomas' long-term health was a bigger concern for the Celtics than it should be for the Cavaliers. So it makes somewhat more sense, given what we know now, that Boston was willing to give up so much to complete this trade.
I still don't like the inclusion of Jae Crowder from the Celtics' perspective; his loss is the biggest reason their RPM projection declined by more than five games after this trade. (The original projection assumed a full season from Thomas; if he's forced to miss time, the decline would no longer look quite as severe.) Boston is still relying heavily on the development of recent lottery picks Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to provide depth around the team's newfound star talent.
However, the swap of point guards at the heart of this trade, Thomas for Irving, now looks like a much clearer upgrade for the Celtics. If Irving is as good as Boston believes, the rest of the other pieces the Celtics gave up will pale in comparison.