What impact will Tuesday's blockbuster trade sending Kyrie Irving to the Boston Celtics for a package headlined by Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder have on next season's Eastern Conference standings?
When we released the initial version of 2017-18 projections based on ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), the Celtics and Cavaliers had the two best win expectations among East teams, with Boston on top. So it's no surprise that the trade between the teams shakes up the projected standings. Still, the magnitude -- and direction -- of the changes might surprise you.
Let's take a look at how RPM views this trade, at least for the upcoming season.
Crowder key to RPM projections
While the two All-Star point guards in this trade have stolen all the headlines, it's the third veteran player -- Crowder -- who actually has the best RPM projection of the three. Why is that? In part, it reflects the defensive shortcomings of both Irving and Thomas, at least during the regular season.
Befitting their status as efficient, high-scoring point guards, Irving and Thomas rate as standout offensive contributors. Thomas' projected plus-5.2 offensive RPM -- based on performance during the past three seasons and an age adjustment -- puts him sixth in the NBA, while Irving (plus-4.2) ranks 13th. Yet both players have defensive RPM projections that put them in the league's bottom 25, with Thomas (minus-3.7) second worst among signed players ahead of only Bojan Bogdanovic of the Indiana Pacers.
By contrast, Crowder's projection is far more balanced. He's one of 12 players in the league who project at least 1.5 points better than league average per 100 possessions on both offense and defense. Nine of those 12 players were All-Stars in 2017, with Nikola Jokic and Ricky Rubio as the other two exceptions.
The balanced projection reflects Crowder's 3-and-D skill set as well as how much of a difference his presence in the lineup has made for Boston. His plus-7.8 net rating on the court in 2016-17 was second best among Celtics behind Amir Johnson (plus-8.0), per NBA.com/Stats. Meanwhile, Boston was outscored by 3.9 points per 100 possessions with Crowder on the bench, the worst mark on the team.
A single season of on-court/off-court data can be fluky, a reason that RPM projections include multiple years of data. But Crowder had a similar, if smaller effect, in 2015-16, when the Celtics' plus-0.8 net rating with him on the bench was worst among regular players. In 2014-15, when Crowder joined the team midseason, Boston had a minus-3.0 net rating with him on the bench, surpassed only by Kelly Olynyk (minus-3.2).
So there's ample evidence that Crowder makes as much of a difference in his team's performance as almost any non-All-Star in the NBA.
Cavaliers improve depth; Celtics deplete theirs
When these teams met in last season's Eastern Conference finals, Cleveland relied heavily on its stars while Boston had superior depth. In part because of Thomas' absence, Celtics coach Brad Stevens played three reserves for more minutes per game than any of the Cavaliers' bench players saw.
A three-for-one trade dramatically changes the depth contrast between the teams. Factor in Cleveland signing experienced Jeff Green and Derrick Rose for the veterans minimum and players on the Cavaliers' current roster combined to play a staggering 24,377 minutes last season, far and away the highest total for any team. (For context, a team would play 19,680 minutes over an 82-game schedule without any overtimes.)
Not coincidentally, the other teams that have added players who saw heavy action in 2016-17 are generally considered some of the league's most improved. The Celtics, having previously lost starters Johnson and Avery Bradley and key reserve Olynyk, rank at the other end of the scale alongside several rebuilding teams.
Certainly, minutes played isn't a perfect proxy for depth. Green and Rose surely played too many minutes in 2016-17, and their presence on the Cleveland roster didn't help the team's RPM projection before the trade. Still, this simple metric reflects the luxury of choice that Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue will now have with his bench, as well as how much Boston is relying on young wings Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to step up in place of the departed Bradley and Crowder.
Looking at projected rotations
Having considered a couple of key factors in how the trade affects RPM projections for both teams, let's take a look at how I estimate their 2017-18 playing time, starting with the Celtics.
Since Irving and Thomas figure to play similar minutes, the question here was mostly how to redistribute the 30 minutes per game Crowder was projected to play. (Ante Zizic's five minutes per game were also redistributed to centers Aron Baynes and Daniel Theis.) I split them fairly equally between Brown (previously at 20 minutes per game), Tatum (10, much to the dismay of hopeful Celtics fans) and Marcus Morris (25), while also adding second-round pick Semi Ojeleye on the fringes of the rotation.
In RPM's estimation, Boston should get much worse production in place of Crowder. The Celtics were relatively ineffective with Brown on the court last season -- his minus-2.2 on-court net rating was worst among Boston regulars -- while most rookies do little to help their teams win, even ones as highly regarded as Tatum. As a result, Boston's RPM projection tumbles from 49.4 wins on average before the trade to 43.8, putting the Celtics fifth in the Eastern Conference. (Note that these projections haven't yet been adjusted for schedule, though that doesn't make a significant difference comparing within the East.)
Here's my projection for Cleveland's rotation:
Having added Crowder, the Cavaliers are suddenly flush with wing options. I have Iman Shumpert as the odd man out of the rotation for the most part, though. JR Smith also sees less playing time, and Crowder gets far fewer minutes than he was projected for in Boston (30 minutes per game).
Still, siphoning minutes from those Cleveland incumbents to Crowder improves the team's RPM projection from 49.2 wins -- nearly even with but just behind the Celtics before the trade -- to 53.7, tops in the East and within striking distance of the Houston Rockets (55.1) for the second-best projection in the league behind the Golden State Warriors.