The typical mock draft tries to predict which prospects NBA teams will pick.
This grade A mock draft instead looks at whom they should pick. And unlike those from my ESPN Insider colleagues Chad Ford and Jeff Goodman, because my player evaluations are heavily influenced by my stats-based projections, it won't look anything like what will actually happen Thursday night.
As with Ford, here are the rules I'm following:
1. At each slot, I make a pick in the best interest only of the team with the pick. I won't pass on a player at No. 4 just because I like the team fit better at No. 5.
2. No trades unless they're already completed.
3. Team needs are taken into account, but value can and often will supersede need. If there's clearly a best player available on the board, I won't pass on him just to fill a need.
4. I'm not reporting or predicting who will go where. This is my opinion about what should happen, not what will.
Without further ado, here's whom I'd take with all 60 picks:
1. Philadelphia 76ers (via Celtics)
Lonzo Ball
UCLA
Freshman
Guard
We start with a twist right at the top. The expected No. 1 overall pick, Markelle Fultz, would be a good fit with Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and the rest of the 76ers' core. I think Ball would be a great fit because of his superior shooting range, his cutting ability and the culture of unselfish ball movement he'd help create.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
Markelle Fultz
Washington
Freshman
Guard
Fultz isn't falling past here. The Lakers would waste no time making him the No. 2 pick if the Sixers take Ball No. 1.
3. Boston Celtics (via 76ers)
Jonathan Isaac
Florida State
Freshman
Forward
I like Isaac slightly better than Josh Jackson in general, but particularly for the Celtics, because Isaac is more likely to develop into an average or better 3-point shooter, and Boston will have better ways to find shot creators via free agency and trades.
4. Phoenix Suns
Josh Jackson
Kansas
Freshman
Forward
If Jackson is still on the board at 4, he's a great fit for the Suns, who need a strong wing defender alongside Devin Booker and don't have a ball-dominant point guard.
5. Sacramento Kings
Dennis Smith
North Carolina State
Freshman
Guard
I have Smith rated ahead of De'Aaron Fox as the best point guard after the top two picks. As Goodman noted when we discussed the lottery on this week's NBA Lockdown draft preview podcast, Smith's tendency not to compete might be more problematic in Sacramento than on a team with strong veteran leadership. Still, given his offensive skills, that's a chance I'm willing to take.
6. Orlando Magic
Jayson Tatum
Duke
Freshman
Forward
Given the Magic's need for a shot creator, and because of their poor shooting, I'd pass on OG Anunoby to take Tatum.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
OG Anunoby
Indiana
Sophomore
Forward
Without access to Anunoby's medical data, it's tough to tell exactly what seems to be bothering teams about his rehab from an ACL tear. (Ford and I discussed that on The Basketball Analogy's draft preview podcast). That noted, I think teams generally tend to make mistakes by getting too conservative with injury risk and overemphasizing short-term results despite the fact that few rookies really help teams win right away.
Zach Collins or Lauri Markkanen would be an interesting fit alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, but I think the Timberwolves can more easily upgrade at power forward in free agency. Anunoby would excel as a wing defender in coach Tom Thibodeau's scheme, ultimately pushing Andrew Wiggins to shooting guard and Zach LaVine to a reserve role.
8. New York Knicks
De'Aaron Fox
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
Fox would be a great value at this point and would fill a need at point guard. He's a terrible fit in the triangle offense. However, if I were running the Knicks' front office, we wouldn't be running the triangle, so problem solved.
9. Dallas Mavericks
Malik Monk
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
In reality, the Mavericks would certainly take French point guard Frank Ntilikina at this point. I'm less sold on Ntilikina as a top-10 pick, and the trades over the past week have dramatically improved Dallas' chances of adding a starting point guard in free agency. So I'm going for Monk, envisioning him as a bigger version of Seth Curry, who excelled in coach Rick Carlisle's offense last season.
10. Sacramento Kings (via Pelicans)
Zach Collins
Gonzaga
Freshman
Center
I would put Collins among the five players most likely to be effective in the NBA, because of his precocious per-minute performance at Gonzaga and his obvious skill for his size. Nonetheless, the depth at center in the league right now means Collins isn't one of the top five prospects in terms of value. Even the Kings would have a crowd up front if they added Collins to Willie Cauley-Stein, Kosta Koufos and Skal Labissiere. But they'd make it work.
11. Charlotte Hornets
Donovan Mitchell
Louisville
Sophomore
Guard
Having acquired Dwight Howard to strengthen their frontcourt, the Hornets should now look to the perimeter. Mitchell would immediately help their wing defense as a reserve and projects as a potential starter at shooting guard down the road.
12. Detroit Pistons
Lauri Markkanen
Arizona
Freshman
Forward
Ideally, Markkanen would be paired with a strong rebounder and rim protector who can minimize his defensive weaknesses. Andre Drummond comes close to fitting that bill, and Markkanen's floor spacing would be ideal for coach Stan Van Gundy's offense.
13. Denver Nuggets
Harry Giles
Duke
Freshman
Forward
By this point in the lottery, taking a chance on Giles' upside makes sense for teams. He's a particularly good fit for the Nuggets, who need an athletic power forward who can help protect the rim alongside Nikola Jokic.
14. Miami Heat
Tyler Lydon
Syracuse
Sophomore
Forward
I don't really get why Lydon isn't getting more buzz as a prospect who can block shots and stretch the floor as a 3-point shooter. In this scenario, I view him as an upgraded version of Luke Babbitt alongside Hassan Whiteside. In reality, Lydon will probably go early in the second round.
15. Portland Trail Blazers
Isaiah Hartenstein
Zalgiris
Age: 19
Forward
Portland should be looking to add athleticism and defense in the frontcourt. Anunoby and Giles would both be great fits if they're still on the board. If not, it's a big drop-off in terms of wing defenders, and I prefer Hartenstein (whose father, Flo, played at the University of Oregon) to T.J. Leaf because of Hartenstein's potential to protect the rim.
Hartenstein has had excellent steal and block rates playing in Lithuania. I translated his stats after publishing my rankings, and Hartenstein ranks 12th in this draft in terms of stats-only projection and 16th in the consensus model.
16. Chicago Bulls
Frank Ntilikina
Strasbourg
Age: 18
Guard
While the top 10 seems a little high for Ntilikina, he's good value at this point and would give the Bulls approximately their 74th point guard younger than age 25 on the roster, but probably their best chance of finding a long-term starter at the position.
17. Milwaukee Bucks
Josh Hart
Villanova
Senior
Guard
Having gotten great value from a senior prospect last year in Malcolm Brogdon, I have the Bucks going that route again with Hart. He could fit immediately into a wing rotation with Khris Middleton, Jabari Parker and Tony Snell and serve as insurance in case Snell gets an offer too rich to match in restricted free agency.
18. Indiana Pacers
Jawun Evans
Oklahoma State
Sophomore
Guard
If the Pacers are entering a rebuild, as it appears, Jeff Teague is probably headed elsewhere and Indiana has no long-term solution behind him. Evans has the most upside of any point guard left on the board.
19. Atlanta Hawks
TJ Leaf
UCLA
Freshman
Forward
Paul Millsap appears to be headed elsewhere via free agency, and while the Hawks are far enough away from expecting to compete in the East that they could add at any position, Leaf is the kind of skilled big man who could excel in coach Mike Budenholzer's system.
20. Portland Trail Blazers (via Nuggets)
Ike Anigbogu
UCLA
Freshman
Center
Anigbogu, 18, is the youngest player in this year's draft. But with multiple first-round picks, the Blazers can wait on him to develop into a capable backup for Jusuf Nurkic.
21. Oklahoma City Thunder
Jonah Bolden
FMB Beograd
Age: 21
Forward
Bolden is one of this year's most fascinating prospects. A native of Australia, he was a nonfactor in one season at UCLA, then signed to play in Serbia and was one of the best players in the prospect-rich Adriatic League. If you ignore his college performance, Bolden would project as a top-10 pick. If you go by what he did in college, he shouldn't get drafted at all. This seems like a reasonable place to split the difference and give the Thunder a chance at their most complete role player alongside Victor Oladipo on the wing.
22. Brooklyn Nets (via Wizards)
John Collins
Wake Forest
Sophomore
Forward
Like Zach Collins (no relation), John Collins is a quality player in search of a team with a need in the frontcourt. That describes the Nets, who have been willing to play two slower big men together. But now that they've traded Brook Lopez to the Lakers, the Nets could let Collins settle in at center.
23. Toronto Raptors (via Bucks)
Semi Ojeleye
SMU
Junior
Forward
Ojeleye seems like a player who could be a favorite of Raptors president Masai Ujiri. Ojeleye has great physical tools for an NBA small forward and possibly enough strength to play some as an undersized 4. Essentially, he could be a younger version of P.J. Tucker.
24. Utah Jazz
Luke Kennard
Duke
Sophomore
Guard
My concerns about Kennard's defense have caused him to drop further here than he will Thursday. If anyone can hide him on D, it's the Jazz, and Kennard's broad offensive skill set would fit well in Utah's offense. If Joe Ingles departs, Kennard could help fill his role.
25. Orlando Magic (via Raptors)
Alec Peters
Valparaiso
Senior
Forward
A hybrid big man was one of the categories on the Magic's infamous leaked whiteboard, and Peters fits the bill. His elite 3-point shooting would help Orlando space the floor, and Peters and Aaron Gordon could swap defensive assignments if they play together, protecting Peters from guarding elite athletes.
26. Portland Trail Blazers (via Cavaliers)
Aleksandar Vezenkov
FC Barcelona
Age: 21
Forward
If the Blazers keep all three of their picks, roster limits practically demand that they stash at least one player overseas. Vezenkov is far and away the best such prospect, according to my projections. (Hartenstein could also remain overseas, though in this scenario I'm envisioning him coming to the NBA immediately.)
27. Los Angeles Lakers (via Nets)
Jarrett Allen
Texas
Freshman
Center
While the Lakers are full up at center next season with the newly acquired Lopez, Tarik Black (whose contract is non-guaranteed) and Ivica Zubac, only Zubac is under contract beyond 2017-18. The Lakers could use a more athletic complement to Zubac, and Allen projects as a center who might be able to switch to smaller players at times.
28. Los Angeles Lakers (via Rockets)
Terrance Ferguson
Australia
Age: 19
Guard
With their third pick, the Lakers swing for the fences. Ferguson was wildly ineffective after opting to play in Australia upon graduating from high school. After translating his stats from Australia's National Basketball League, his NBA projection is for minus-0.8 WARP per season. Still, by the end of the first round it's worth gambling on the combination of shooting and size Ferguson displayed in high school showcases.
29. San Antonio Spurs
Jeremy Morgan
Northern Iowa
Senior
Guard
Jonathon Simmons is a restricted free agent who might get overpaid after an impressive Western Conference finals, so I'd like to see the Spurs add a 3-and-D player to replace him. Morgan is a favorite of my statistical projections because of his strong block and steal rates against Horizon League competition.
30. Utah Jazz (via Warriors)
Caleb Swanigan
Purdue
Sophomore
Forward
Boris Diaw's 2017-18 salary is non-guaranteed. Derrick Favors' future is uncertain, and Trey Lyles hasn't yet shown he can be a rotation player, so the Jazz are somewhat unsettled at power forward. Swanigan would add skill and power to the mix, and he happened to spend part of his itinerant childhood in Salt Lake City.
31. Charlotte Hornets (via Hawks)
Monte Morris
Iowa State
Senior
Guard
Morris, whose stats-only projection ranks third overall, has been the best prospect remaining on my board for some time in this draft. Few teams have needed a backup point guard. That changes with the Hornets, whom Morris could help immediately behind Kemba Walker.
32. Phoenix Suns
Tony Bradley
North Carolina
Freshman
Center
Alex Len and Alan Williams are both restricted free agents, so Tyson Chandler is the only Phoenix center under contract for 2017-18. Bradley doesn't offer immediate help but has intriguing potential down the road.
33. Orlando Magic (via Lakers)
Derrick White
Colorado
Senior
Guard
Having addressed the frontcourt a couple of times, the Magic add White to their guard rotation. A standout at D-II Colorado-Colorado Springs, White up-transferred for his senior year and proved he could compete against Pac-12 opposition.
34. Sacramento Kings (via Pelicans)
Justin Jackson
North Carolina
Junior
Forward
With two lottery picks, the Kings didn't address their biggest current hole at small forward. While they have $55 million in cap space to do that, Jackson would also figure into the mix.
35. Orlando Magic
Anzejs Pasecniks
Gran Canaria
Age: 21
Center
Flush with second-round picks after two first-rounders, the Magic will have to start stashing at some point if they don't trade (which they can't in this mock draft). Pasecniks doesn't play a position of current need, but by the time he comes over, Nikola Vucevic might have moved on.
36. Philadelphia 76ers (via Raptors)
Davon Reed
Miami
Senior
Guard
The Sixers already have several 3-and-D options but could use more with their talent at point guard, power forward and center. Reed was a 40 percent 3-point shooter at Miami, and he is a capable defender at either guard spot.
37. Boston Celtics (via Suns)
Justin Patton
Creighton
Freshman
Center
Patton has fallen the furthest among the group of centers from Nos. 13-19 in my consensus projections. I'm a little skeptical of his short track record of elite play. Still, he's well worth a second-round pick.
38. Chicago Bulls (via Cavaliers)
Edrice Adebayo
Kentucky
Freshman
Forward
A likely first-round pick, Adebayo ranks just 51st in my stats-only projections because of his poor rebound, assist and steal rates at Kentucky. At some point, he's worth the gamble that he'll be more productive than he was in college.
39. Philadelphia 76ers (via Mavericks)
Alpha Kaba
KK Mega Vizura
Age: 20
Forward
The Sixers have four second-round picks this year, so some stashes are in order. Kaba doesn't seem to have a ton of upside but could eventually be a rotation piece.
40. New Orleans Pelicans
Sindarius Thornwell
South Carolina
Senior
Guard
Thornwell is one of the most fascinating prospects in this draft from a statistical standpoint. Projections that take into account only his senior season, when Thornwell led South Carolina to the Final Four, are likely to love his strong steal and block rates and 39.5 percent 3-point shooting. But Thornwell wasn't nearly as effective in any of those categories before his senior year, which suggests to my projections -- weighted more heavily toward early seasons, which have proved to be more predictive -- that his senior success was a bit of a fluke.
For a team in desperate need of quality role players on the wing, it's worth gambling that the Thornwell we saw as a senior will translate to the NBA.
41. Atlanta Hawks (via Hornets)
Ivan Rabb
California
Sophomore
Forward
Ford and I agreed Rabb is the most overrated prospect in this year's draft, working on the assumption that he'll go in the first round. By the early second, he's reasonable value.
42. Utah Jazz (via Pistons)
Frank Jackson
Duke
Freshman
Guard
A Utah native, Jackson has the potential to play on or off the ball in the NBA, much like current Jazz starter George Hill. Jackson is still available this late largely because of a poor steal rate that tanks his statistical projection.
43. Houston Rockets (via Nuggets)
V.J. Beachem
Notre Dame
Senior
Forward
The Rockets are always on the lookout for wing shooters, and Beachem was a 39 percent 3-point shooter in college. At 6-foot-8, he has enough size to defend either wing spot.
44. New York Knicks (via Bulls)
Derrick Walton Jr.
Michigan
Senior
Guard
Even if the Knicks take a point guard in the first round, the position might still be a need in the second because Derrick Rose and backup Ron Baker are both free agents. Walton is a complement to Fox as a much better outside shooter.
45. Houston Rockets (via Blazers)
Chris Boucher
Oregon
Senior
Forward
Boucher is an elite shot-blocker with college 3-point range. He's also 24, having taken a circuitous route to Oregon, and is coming off a torn ACL. If anyone is willing to take a shot on that unorthodox package, it's the Rockets.
46. Philadelphia 76ers (via Hawks)
Luka Bozic
KK Zagreb
Age: 21
Guard
I don't have a statistical projection for Bozic, because he played in the Croatian A-1 Liga, not the stronger Adriatic League. He was impressive against weak opposition, averaging 22.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game.
47. Indiana Pacers
Jordan Bell
Oregon
Junior
Forward
Bell is another late bloomer whose skill set is a tricky fit in the NBA. At 6-foot-8, he's probably too short to play center, and he doesn't stretch the floor at power forward. That makes him a good fit alongside a stretch 5 like Myles Turner.
48. Milwaukee Bucks
D.J. Wilson
Michigan
Junior
Forward
Wilson has potential as a pick-and-pop power forward with the athleticism to switch on defense. His dreadful rebounding is a concern.
49. Denver Nuggets (via Thunder)
Marko Guduric
KK Crvena Zvezda
Age: 22
Guard
The Nuggets have had success mining the Adriatic League for Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic. Guduric doesn't have anything close to that kind of upside, but he is one of the better shooters in the draft.
50. Philadelphia 76ers (via Hawks)
Jonathan Jeanne
Le Mans
Age: 19
Center
After an impressive showing at the NBA draft combine, Jeanne was a possible first-round pick before being diagnosed with Marfan syndrome, which puts his playing career in jeopardy. At some point, the value of a late second-round pick is low enough that it's worth taking a chance that Jeanne is cleared to return.
51. Denver Nuggets (via Thunder)
Mathias Lessort
JSF Nanterre
Age: 21
Forward
Lessort projects as something of a poor man's J.J. Hickson. He's an accurate shooter and solid rebounder who doesn't provide much rim protection or stretch the floor.
52. New Orleans Pelicans (via Wizards)
Melo Trimble
Maryland
Junior
Guard
The Wizards desperately need a backup point guard, which might be hard to find this late. Trimble has enough offensive skill to fill that role, though he disappointed as a junior and will probably struggle defensively.
53. Boston Celtics (via Cavaliers)
Thomas Bryant
Indiana
Sophomore
Center
At this point, the Celtics are looking for prospects to develop at their G League affiliate (formerly the D-League). Bryant has good skill for his size and is worth a shot.
54. Phoenix Suns (via Raptors)
Sterling Brown
SMU
Senior
Guard
Brown was a 45 percent 3-point shooter last season but on limited volume; he attempted just 3.9 per game as a senior in 32.7 minutes. He might be a new Anthony Morrow.
55. Utah Jazz
Vlatko Cancar
Mega Leks
Age: 20
Forward
Playing in the Adriatic League at age 19, Cancar showed impressive efficiency, though his rebound, steal and block rates suggest he might not be athletic enough for the NBA.
56. Boston Celtics (via Clippers)
Alberto Abalde
Joventut
Age: 21
Forward
Abalde has some offensive skills but might not be athletic enough to defend NBA wings.
57. Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)
Kyle Kuzma
Utah
Junior
Forward
Another late bloomer, at least from a statistical standpoint, Kuzma translated his potential into production as a junior. His poor steal and block rates are tough to reconcile with his length and athleticism.
58. New York Knicks (Rockets)
Rolands Smits
Fuenlabrada
Age: 21
Forward
No relation to Rik Smits (aka The Dunking Dutchman), this Smits -- who is actually Latvian, like Kristaps Porzingis -- spaces the floor at 6-foot-10 but doesn't project to do much else at an NBA level.
59. San Antonio Spurs
Jake Wiley
Eastern Washington
Senior
Forward
Wiley is one of this year's most interesting draft stories. After playing one season at Montana, he spent a year running track before resurfacing at Eastern Washington with one year of eligibility. An impressive performance at the Portsmouth pre-draft camp put Wiley on scouts' radars as a possible second-round pick.
60. Atlanta Hawks (via Jazz)
Kobi Simmons
Arizona
Senior
Guard
Just 19, Simmons is miles away from being ready to contribute in the NBA. The Hawks would be drafting him to develop in the G League.