Who's No. 1 in the closest MVP race in years, and who should make the cut on the high-stakes All-NBA teams?
Here are my picks for all the big awards, including Sixth Man, All-Rookie, Coach of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and more.
Most Valuable Player
1. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
2. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
3. James Harden, Houston Rockets
4. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
5. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
I discussed the top four spots for MVP in my story earlier this week looking at what advanced metrics tell us about the MVP race. For the fifth spot, I'm going with Curry. Other players have had better seasons in terms of box-score stats, but Curry remains the driving force on the NBA's best team, which is why he's second in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) wins.
All-NBA first team
Guard: James Harden, Houston Rockets
Guard: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Forward: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Forward: Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
Center: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
Four of the five spots on the All-NBA first team are obvious. Center is far more interesting.
Because he has played more minutes at center, and more effectively there, I'm considering Anthony Davis a center for the purposes of my ballot. However, I still think Gobert has done more to help his team win. He's either the best or second-best defensive player in the league and has become a high-percentage lob threat in the DeAndre Jordan mold on offense. Gobert has arguably been a top-10 player in the league this season, and the best of a resurgent group of 5s.
All-NBA second team
Guard: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Guard: Isaiah Thomas, Boston Celtics
Forward: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Forward: Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
Center: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Thomas truly is having one of the better offensive seasons in NBA history. He's on track to rank in the top 10 in adjusted true shooting percentage, my metric that adjusts true shooting percentage for a player's usage rate by adding .050 for each point of usage above league average (20 percent), since 1977-78 (the first year usage can be calculated).
While Thomas' defense is a shortcoming, he's not as bad defensively as he looks in RPM because of opponent 3-point luck. As a result, I give him a narrow edge over John Wall for the second guard spot on the second team.
All-NBA third team
Guard: Chris Paul, LA Clippers
Guard: John Wall, Washington Wizards
Forward: Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
Forward: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
Center: DeAndre Jordan, LA Clippers
Paul and Durant have both missed extended periods due to injury, but were so good when healthy that they merit All-NBA anyway. That means no room at forward for Paul George or Gordon Hayward, even with Davis qualifying as a center, and I don't think it's honestly all that close. Durant still has contributed 3.2 more wins above replacement player (WARP) than Hayward and 4.7 more than George.
The third center spot is an interesting one. Karl-Anthony Towns and DeMarcus Cousins have the best box-score stats, but neither rates particularly well in terms of their impact on team performance. Nikola Jokic rates well in both categories but has played less than 2,000 minutes because he spent most of the first month and a half coming off the bench. Marc Gasol, who's sure to get plenty of votes, hasn't rated as well in either team impact or box-score stats. So I'm going with Jordan, a consistent presence for the Clippers at both ends of the court.
Defensive Player of the Year
1. Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
2. Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
3. Dwight Howard, Atlanta Hawks
For my explanation of Green over Gobert, as well as my All-Defensive Teams, see my analysis highlighting defense earlier this week.
Sixth Man Award
1. Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
2. Eric Gordon, Houston Rockets
3. Lou Williams, Houston Rockets
This year's Sixth Man crop is deeper than normal, I'd say. In most years, Greg Monroe would have merited a spot on the ballot, and maybe James Johnson too. While this award is Gordon's to win, RPM favors Iguodala, and dramatically so. His plus-3.3 RPM is far and away the best of any reserve, and Iguodala should crack 2,000 minutes, so his 7.8 RPM wins are tops too.
Gordon's high-volume 3-point shooting has been a major factor in the Rockets more than holding their own with James Harden on the bench, though it's worth noting he's largely a nonfactor on defense. After joining Houston at the deadline, Williams is no longer technically a sixth man, but he has been one of the league's better offensive players off the bench.
Rookie of the Year
1. Malcolm Brogdon, Milwaukee Bucks
2. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
3. Willy Hernangomez, New York Knicks
I was comfortable picking Embiid as Rookie of the Year despite playing just 31 games if he was the rookie who provided the most value. At the time he was hurt, that seemed likely, but Brogdon has provided quality minutes as the Bucks have solidified their playoff spot in the second half of the season. He has doubled Embiid in RPM wins, which makes him my choice.
Nearly all ballots will surely have Embiid's teammate Dario Saric in the top three but even during his strong second half Saric has been more of a volume scorer than an efficient one. (I broke down the difference in Saric's play before and after the All-Star break earlier this week.) Hernangomez has been a high-percentage finisher and excellent rebounder for the Knicks, and is second in WARP among rookies behind Embiid.
All-Rookie first team
Chosen without regard to position.
Malcolm Brogdon, Milwaukee Bucks
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
Willy Hernangomez, New York Knicks
Dario Saric, Philadelphia 76ers
Rodney McGruder, Miami Heat
Surely one of the most improbable All-Rookie candidates in recent memory, McGruder went undrafted in 2013 and spent one season overseas and two in the D-League. After making the Heat out of training camp, McGruder has started all but one game he has played since Thanksgiving. Mostly a bystander on offense, McGruder has been a key contributor to a Miami defense that ranks fifth in defensive rating.
All-Rookie second team
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
Marquese Chriss, Phoenix Suns
Yogi Ferrell, Dallas Mavericks
Caris LeVert, Brooklyn Nets
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
Honest question: Do we need an All-Rookie second team at this point? It's a stretch to find 10 rookies who really helped their teams this season.
Most Improved Player
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
2. Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
3. Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
There are dozens of legitimate contenders for this award, but Antetokounmpo is a pretty clear choice as the winner.
Coach of the Year
1. Mike D'Antoni, Houston Rockets
2. Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs
3. Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat
Popovich could easily win this award every year, and he managed the retirement of Tim Duncan so seamlessly -- with the Spurs remaining the league's best defensive team -- that it's easy to overlook.
Still, I do think D'Antoni and his coaching staff deserve the award as recognition for how his system has proven a perfect fit for Houston's offensive talent, which wasn't obvious before the season, when the Vegas over/under had the Rockets at 41.5 wins. Beyond that, the Rockets have defended at a league-average rate, which is impressive given that three of the team's top six players in minutes played are defensively challenged, to put it politely. Spoelstra kept the Heat focused despite a dreadful start and has cobbled together a top-tier defense.
As always, several other coaches have cases worth mentioning as well. Scott Brooks managed to steer the Wizards through a slow start and guide them to their first division championship in 38 years. Steve Kerr's patience was the right approach to keep a Warriors team facing high expectations from combusting. Quin Snyder oversaw dramatic improvement despite near-constant injuries that have allowed him to start his preferred five just 13 times all season. Brad Stevens is as good as anyone late in close games. And I'm surprised Dwane Casey hasn't gotten more credit for keeping the Toronto Raptors afloat with elite defense after the loss of Kyle Lowry to injury.
Executive of the Year
Bob Myers, Golden State Warriors
Look, I get that the lure of playing for the Warriors helped them sign big men Zaza Pachulia and David West as free agents at bargain prices, and that Myers wouldn't win this award had Durant chosen to play for another team.
If Daryl Morey wins for hiring D'Antoni, signing Gordon and Ryan Anderson and trading for Williams midseason, it would certainly be well-deserved. Ultimately, nobody did more over the last 12 months to help themselves this season and in the future than Golden State did. Myers and the Warriors front office put the team in position to get lucky with Durant and take full advantage when they did.