NBA scouts, GMs and fans are having a serious debate about the No. 1 pick.
Insider spoke to scouts and/or executives from almost every team projected to be in the draft lottery in an effort to determine their individual draft order for the debut of our lottery mock draft generator.
Does Washington's Markelle Fultz or UCLA's Lonzo Ball have the edge at the top of most draft boards?
As of today, every team I spoke with has either Fultz or Ball at No. 1, though several teams admit that players like Josh Jackson and Jayson Tatum remain in the picture -- and no team has made a definitive decision yet. Workouts, interviews, background checks and physical and psychological evaluations are still forthcoming and can tip the scales.
Among these 14 teams, Fultz and Ball are essentially in a dead heat -- each player has seven teams that would take him No. 1. Adding up the odds of the teams slated for the lottery based on ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), Fultz has a slightly better chance of going No. 1 overall at 55 percent.
Boston Celtics (via Nets)
Odds of winning the lottery: 25 percent
No. 1 pick: Markelle Fultz
The Celtics are loaded at the guard spot. Isaiah Thomas is an All-Star. They love Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley, and the team is also high on second-year guard Terry Rozier.
So a trade will be an attractive option for the Celtics if they land the No. 1 pick. The plan all along has been to flip some of their many assets into a star. But if they can't get a star, Boston won't hesitate to use the draft pick and take a guard, even if that isn't a major roster need.
The decision between Fultz and Ball is a tough one for every team, especially Boston. On the one hand, having a pure playmaker like Ball would be attractive. The Celtics' guards are hybrid players, not pure playmakers. Ball would give them a different look.
On the other hand, with so much talent already on the roster, Fultz's versatility would be very attractive and could get him more minutes.
I believe the Celtics are leaning Fultz at the moment, but it's super close. The wild card is what the trade market looks like this summer.
Phoenix Suns
Odds of winning the lottery: 19.1 percent
No. 1 pick: Lonzo Ball
The Suns have two point guards on their roster who have been starters -- Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight -- but I don't think that will affect their draft plans.
Both players were available at the trade deadline. The Suns have gone all-in on a youth movement and plan to build around Devin Booker, Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender. Adding a young point guard is an attractive option for them.
The Suns lean Ball, in part because they feel they need a facilitator who can get everyone else on the team involved. While some teams are really split on the Ball vs. Fultz question, the early indications I get out of Phoenix are that the Suns lean pretty heavily toward Ball.
Los Angeles Lakers
Odds of winning the lottery: 16.4 percent
No. 1 pick: Lonzo Ball
The Lakers are crossing their fingers that they land one of the top three picks and don't have to send their selection to the Sixers.
If they get No. 1, it seems pretty clear that they also lean heavily to Ball. He has drawn comparisons to a young Magic Johnson. While it's unclear if Magic -- now the team president -- sees the same connection, he certainly has an appreciation for the way Ball runs a team.
The team believes D'Angelo Russell can play off the ball, and Ball, a local product, would be a natural fit on a roster filled with young players looking for a true floor general.
Orlando Magic
Odds of winning the lottery: 11.0 percent
No. 1 pick: Markelle Fultz
The Magic have an on-again, off-again relationship with young point guard Elfrid Payton, who has terrific potential but lacks the upside of either Fultz or Ball.
Assuming GM Rob Hennigan is still calling the shots (a big if right now), it appears that the the Magic want to keep developing Payton, which would make Fultz, who can play the 1 and the 2, a more attractive option.
Philadelphia 76ers
Odds of winning the lottery: 9.4 percent
No. 1 pick: Markelle Fultz
The Sixers' surprising success this year has damaged their odds of landing the No. 1 pick and drafting a potential third superstar to pair with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid.
Point guard feels like an obvious need, though coach Brett Brown seems determined to let Simmons run the point next year. Given all that, Fultz is a more intriguing choice for Philly. His ability to handle the ball and play off of it, combined with his superior 3-point shooting, would give the Sixers more flexibility when Simmons has the ball in his hands.
New York Knicks
Odds of winning the lottery: 5.5 percent
No. 1 pick: Markelle Fultz
With Derrick Rose likely to leave via free agency and Carmelo Anthony looking more open than ever to a trade, the Knicks should finally be in a position to rebuild around Kristaps Porzingis.
Word out of New York is that the Knicks would be torn between Ball and Fultz. Assuming Phil Jackson is still calling the shots, he prefers guards who can run the triangle, and Fultz seems like the better option. But there's little doubt that Ball has the game and personality for the bright lights of NYC and seems like a perfect running mate for Porzingis.
Sacramento Kings
Odds of winning the lottery: 3.8 percent
No. 1 pick: Lonzo Ball
The trade of DeMarcus Cousins has put the Kings back into rebuilding mode. They have high hopes for players such as Buddy Hield, Willie Cauley-Stein, Skal Labissiere and Georgios Papagiannis.
Philly owns the rights to swap picks with the Kings inside the top 10, so Sacramento can't actually end up at No. 1. But who would the Kings want most at No. 2? They are really after a young point guard who can pull everyone together. The Kings' front-office situation is a little murky at the moment, but if Vlade Divac holds onto the decision-making powers, it looks like Ball's superior floor vision would win out.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Odds of winning the lottery: 3.4 percent
No. 1 pick: Markelle Fultz
After drafting Kris Dunn with the No. 5 pick last year, the Wolves flirted much of the season with trading Ricky Rubio before the deadline. His resurgence, combined with Dunn's slow start, have quieted things in Minnesota, and it's no longer clear they're really in the market for a PG.
That would make Fultz a more attractive option. His ability to play off the ball and stretch the floor is something that neither Rubio nor Dunn can provide.
Dallas Mavericks
Odds of winning the lottery: 2.3 percent
No. 1 pick: Lonzo Ball
Mavs owner Mark Cuban has made it clear that landing a point guard remains the biggest offseason priority, whether it's through free agency, trade or the draft. If they get the No. 1 pick, you can bet they'll jump at the chance to land Fultz or Ball.
Both players would be great fits in Dallas, but I'm hearing that Ball is in the lead at the moment. His pure playmaking ability is really attractive to Mavs head coach Rick Carlisle.
New Orleans Pelicans
Odds of winning the lottery: 1.5 percent
No. 1 pick: Lonzo Ball
The Pelicans agreed to send their pick to the Kings as part of the DeMarcus Cousins trade, but it's top-3 protected.
If they get lucky enough to land the No. 1 pick, Ball seems like an obvious choice for the team. His unselfishness and ability to get everyone shots would be highly attractive to coach Alvin Gentry. And if the Pelicans end up keeping Jrue Holiday, they are comfortable playing him off the ball.
Detroit Pistons
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.8 percent
No. 1 pick: Lonzo Ball
The Pistons clearly aren't in love with their point guards at the moment and explored trades for Reggie Jackson at the trade deadline.
Ball's unselfishness and floor mastery hold strong appeal in Detroit, though the team is also interested in Fultz's versatility. This is a very close call.
Charlotte Hornets
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.7 percent
No. 1 pick: Markelle Fultz
Kemba Walker made his first All-Star team this season, but that won't stop the Hornets from grabbing another point guard if they land at No. 1.
Fultz's size, shooting stroke and ability to play the 2 give him the edge in Charlotte.
Denver Nuggets
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.5%
No. 1 pick: Lonzo Ball
The Nuggets have drafted point guards with their lottery pick in the past two drafts. Emmanuel Mudiay has been a major disappointment. Jamal Murray has been better, but his versatility allows him to play the 1 and the 2.
Neither player has the floor vision or unselfishness of Ball, giving Ball the edge in Denver.
Indiana Pacers
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.2 percent
No. 1 pick: Markelle Fultz
The Pacers traded for Jeff Teague before last year's draft, but they'd jump all over the chance to draft Fultz as either a replacement for Teague or to play alongside him in the backcourt.