Don't read too much into the Orlando Magic's offseason planning whiteboard that was accidentally revealed Monday in a tweet sent by the agent of D-Leaguer Patricio Garino, whom the Magic signed to a contract. Every team is making similar plans this time of the year, and few of them will come to fruition because of the many variables involved in player movement.
Still, one element of the whiteboard is worth discussing for what it says about the players and teams involved. Under potential trade candidates for a "hybrid" forward, Orlando listed Philadelphia 76ers rookie Dario Saric with the note "for AG?" -- apparently referring to Magic forward Aaron Gordon.
Would swapping Gordon for Saric make sense for Orlando? And what is the value of the two players at this stage of their careers? Let's take a look.
Gordon back in the right spot
After trading for power forward Serge Ibaka and signing center Bismack Biyombo as a free agent last summer, the Magic began the season with Gordon playing small forward instead of the more familiar power forward spot. First-year Orlando coach Frank Vogel expressed the idea that he would use Gordon as he used Paul George while coaching the Indiana Pacers.
"If Serge Ibaka weren't here, Aaron Gordon would be my power forward," Vogel told ESPN's Zach Lowe. "But Serge is here. Aaron is going to be playing [small forward]. We are going to put the ball in his hands a lot. We're going to use him like Paul George."
The experiment didn't take. Gordon wasn't comfortable running pick-and-rolls on the wing, running just 110 all season and shooting 33.0 percent on those plays, according to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats. He also relied far too much on his inaccurate outside shot as a small forward. More than a third of his shots before the All-Star break came from 3-point range, and Gordon shot just 29.2 percent on those attempts, a big reason his true shooting percentage tumbled from .541 in 2015-16 to .503 in the first half of this season.
When the Magic traded Ibaka to the Toronto Raptors for small forward Terrence Ross and a first-round pick, it returned Gordon to the 4-spot. The results have been predictably good. Gordon is shooting fewer 3s and more frequently around the basket. Add in an unsustainable surge in free throw percentage and his true shooting has gone all the way up to .570.
Gordon's rebounding hasn't improved with the move back to the frontcourt as much as Orlando probably hoped -- his defensive rebound rate has been about average for a small forward -- but otherwise his development seems back on track at the right position.
Saric surging after the All-Star break too
Like Gordon, Saric has been playing his best basketball in the last month and a half. While Saric, too, has settled in more or less full time at power forward after occasionally playing the 3 in bigger Philadelphia lineups before Ersan Ilyasova was traded to the Atlanta Hawks at the deadline, the real change for Saric has been how he has been used rather than where.
With Joel Embiid out for the season following a torn meniscus, 76ers coach Brett Brown has put the ball in Saric's hands more frequently in the second half. Based on SportVU tracking data on NBA.com/Stats, Saric held the ball about 11.5 percent of the time he was on the court on offense before the break. Since then, that rate has increased to 16.1 percent, the highest of any Philadelphia player besides point guards T.J. McConnell and Sergio Rodriguez.
Playing with the ball has unlocked Saric's value as a playmaker. He's handing out 4.0 assists per 36 minutes, which is excellent for a big man, up from 2.6 before the break. And Saric is creating more of his own offense, too, boosting his usage rate from 22.9 percent of the Sixers' plays in the first half to 27.6 percent and improving his true shooting from .498 to .526.
Gordon for Saric?
The idea of the Magic trading Gordon for Saric is interesting for a couple of reasons. First, Gordon went eight picks ahead of Saric when they were both in the 2014 draft. Second, Orlando actually drafted Saric, although it was as part of a trade with Philadelphia that sent point guard Elfrid Payton to the Magic in exchange for Saric, a 2015 second-round pick (used on Willy Hernangomez, whose rights were subsequently traded to the New York Knicks) and the return of the 76ers' lottery-protected 2017 first-round pick dating back to the Dwight Howard trade. If not for the Payton-Saric swap, the Sixers would owe their first-round pick to Orlando if it landed outside the top eight next season, which seems likely.
Although those decisions are sunk costs now, Gordon looks like the better prospect in a vacuum. He's rated as the better player by my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric and its per-minute incarnation, player win percentage, both before and after the break.
Over an 82-game season, Gordon's post-All-Star play would project to 6.2 WARP, nearly double Saric's 3.2 mark. And Gordon, who won't turn 22 until September, is nearly a year and a half younger than Saric, who turns 23 later this week.
So why would the Magic consider a swap? Their respective contracts are one reason. Because Saric spent two years in Turkey before coming to the NBA, he still has three years remaining on his team-friendly rookie deal, which will pay him less than $8.5 million total over that span. Gordon is heading into the final season of his rookie contract, and Orlando will have to consider a more lucrative extension before he becomes a restricted free agent in the summer of 2018.
Saric's superior outside shooting could also be a plus. While he has shot just 31.3 percent on 3s this season, that's still an upgrade on Gordon's 28.4 percent 3-point shooting, and as Chris Herring found last year, international players have tended to shoot more accurately on 3s after a year to adjust to the longer NBA line.
At the same time, a frontcourt of Saric and starting center Nikola Vucevic would have a tough time defending the paint. Saric would probably have to be paired with Biyombo defensively.
Ultimately, even if Gordon and Saric were equal in terms of value above their contracts -- and I'd still give the edge to Gordon -- keeping the player with the higher upside makes far more sense for the Magic. Their rebuilding effort has fallen short in large part because Orlando has been unable to find a star-caliber talent as the centerpiece. While the Magic might be able to find that star through this year's lottery, now is not the time to part with Gordon's potential.
With ESPN's Marc Stein reporting recently that Orlando GM Rob Hennigan's job is in jeopardy after a fifth consecutive season in the lottery, it's unclear whether the current front office might be able to put any offseason plans in action. If so, the idea of swapping Gordon for Saric shouldn't get beyond the whiteboard stage.