The deal
Nets get: 2016's No. 20 pick, future second-rounder
Pacers get: Forward Thaddeus Young
Indiana Pacers: B+
A day after acquiring their new starting point guard, Jeff Teague, in a three-team trade, the Pacers have dealt for a starting power forward.
The contract Young signed less than 12 months ago looks like a bargain now. Even with a 15 percent trade kicker (paid by Brooklyn), he'll count against the cap approximately $29 million total the next two seasons before a $13.8 million player option for 2018-19. If Young were on the market this summer, I estimate his production would be valued at about $40 million over the two guaranteed years remaining on his contract.
I'd probably rather have Young than Ryan Anderson, perhaps the most comparable power forward on the market, and Anderson might make northward of $20 million a year on his next contract. If that's the alternative, I'd be happy to give up a late first-round pick to get Young, even in a year when such picks are more valuable than ever.
I estimate the net value of the 20th pick Indiana traded at about $12 million above and beyond the salary the pick will make during his rookie contract.
The combination of these two moves confirms the Pacers' shift to the smaller, faster style Larry Bird has long indicated he wants to play. When Paul George chafed at playing power forward, Indiana didn't really have the pieces to play that style last season, and the best fit as a small-ball 4 on the roster (Solomon Hill) is an unrestricted free agent whom the Pacers can pay a maximum of $2.3 million next season after declining his rookie option for the same amount. Hill will almost certainly make more elsewhere.
Young isn't exactly a stretch-4. He has made as many as 90 3-pointers in a season but is a career 31.9 percent shooter beyond the arc who made just seven 3s last season. If Young is going to shoot a jumper, it should probably be a 3. However, he's most effective around the basket as a crafty finisher. That should work well with second-year Indiana center Myles Turner, a strong jump-shooter who probably will add 3-point range over time.
What Young is, by contrast, is more of a speed 4. He's a problem for lumbering big men in transition and can switch most picks on the perimeter. According to player-tracking data, opponents averaged just 0.76 points per chance when Young switched. The league average on switches is 0.89 points per chance.
Defensively, Young won't help as much around the basket. He's one of the league's worst rim protectors, a bottom-10 defender in terms of opponents' shooting percentage inside 5 feet (among players who defended at least five such shots per game, according to NBA.com/Stats). So Turner is going to have to shoulder virtually all the responsibility of defending the basket when he plays with Young.
Overall, Indiana's two trades this week have sacrificed some defense in favor of more scoring punch.
I'm curious about what comes next for Indiana. The Pacers will still have about $15 million in cap space after taking on Young's contract after the moratorium on July 7, based on current projections. That figure includes a cap hold for incumbent center Ian Mahinmi, who could return as part of a frontcourt rotation, with Turner playing both post positions.
If Indiana re-signs Mahinmi, the team probably won't need all that cap space, which would make a renegotiation and extension for Teague (discussed Wednesday) more likely. Otherwise, the Pacers would have about $22.5 million to replace Mahinmi via free agency.
Either way, Indiana's 2016-17 rotation is taking shape after trades the past two days.
Brooklyn Nets: B
From a pure value perspective, the Nets might have sold a tiny bit low on Young. Still, they weren't getting much benefit from his cheap contract because they are so far from contending for a playoff spot, and Young's value would have decreased the closer he got to being able to opt out.
Now was also a good time to move Young because it allows Brooklyn to get into the 2016 draft, the Nets' first-round pick (No. 3 overall) having gone to the Boston Celtics in the Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce trade. This is the second consecutive year Brooklyn has dealt for a first-round pick, and despite the massive loss of picks via trade, the Nets will have three first-round picks on their roster in either their first or second season.
The question now becomes how far Brooklyn is willing to bottom out. The same logic that suggested trading Young now goes double for Brook Lopez, whose value could plummet at any point if he experiences a recurrence of the foot injuries that sidelined him for much of the 2011-12 and 2013-14 seasons. At the same time, Lopez is a more entrenched part of the franchise (the only one he has played for) and more of a draw in free agency.
Whether it changes the thinking on Lopez or not, dealing Young for a draft pick is the latest indicator that the Nets are operating differently under new GM Sean Marks. Instead of continually mortgaging the future to win now, Brooklyn is building up the roster slowly, which is the right play and should ultimately provide something the Nets haven't had in a while: hope.