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Free-agent forecasts for Durant, Conley, Horford, Whiteside

Our NBA Insiders answer the big free-agent questions, including what Kevin Durant is likely to do. AP Photo/Michael Dwyer

On July 1, NBA free agency will arrive, featuring big names like Kevin Durant, Mike Conley, Al Horford, Dwight Howard and Hassan Whiteside.

Our NBA Insiders are going 5-on-5 on what to expect, and you can get their answers here.


Golden State Warriors

Fact or fiction: The Warriors should pay Harrison Barnes the max, if necessary.

Kevin Pelton: Fact. Though stardom might not be in the cards for Barnes, his ability to slide down to power forward is crucial to the Warriors' ability to play small, and he's a fine role player. Is he worth more than Golden State's other starters? No, obviously not -- and concerns about how a max deal for Barnes plays in the locker room are the only valid reason to answer fiction, in my opinion -- but such a contract would be tradable, if need be.

For all the answers, check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Warriors


Oklahoma City Thunder

What is Kevin Durant likely to do?

Amin Elhassan: Given how close the Thunder came to defeating the Warriors, I don't think Durant will walk away from this experience thinking Oklahoma City will never be good enough to win a title. That said, it makes little sense for him to lock in long-term without knowing what Russell Westbrook will do next year, when he becomes a free agent.

Also, the NBA max salary is expressed as a percentage of the cap, and players with 10-plus years of service are eligible for the largest percentage (35 percent). Furthermore, the cap is expected to top $105 million in 2017, so for Durant, who will play his 10th NBA season in 2016-17, waiting an extra year would mean a shot at a bigger slice of an even bigger pie.

Check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Thunder


Chicago Bulls

How should the Bulls prioritize bringing back Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson?

Kevin Pelton: I wouldn't want any of them on the 2017-18 Bulls on their likely contracts. Despite his offensive production, Gasol's flagging defense and age cause roster construction issues, and Noah's health makes it difficult to count on him going forward. By the time he hits free agency, Gibson will be 32 and presumably looking for a long-term contract.

Check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Bulls


Washington Wizards

How likely are the Wizards to sign Kevin Durant with Scott Brooks now in Washington?

Kevin Arnovitz: Not very, and the hiring of Brooks is unlikely to have much of an effect for two reasons. First, it's safe to assume that if Durant had deep affection for Brooks as a head coach, Brooks would still be in Oklahoma City. The second has little to do with Brooks specifically: There's little precedent for a marquee free agent to choose a destination based on who's in the first chair.

Check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Wizards


San Antonio Spurs

Fact or fiction: Kevin Durant is in play for the Spurs.


Kevin Pelton: Faction. It's hard to imagine Durant leaving for the team his Thunder just defeated, but if he signs a one-year deal with a player option and Westbrook leaves in the summer of 2017, playing in San Antonio might then seem like a better option. That possibility passes my "any chance?" rule.

Fact or fiction: In terms of basketball decisions, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili should retire.

David Thorpe: Fact. Duncan has never looked older. His nimbleness is gone on both ends of the court. Sure, his mind and size mean he can be of value to a team, but will he want to just hang on? Manu is in a similar boat. He can bring value, but to be just a rotation guy and at risk for even more injuries is cruel. Leaving after this series (following a 67-win season) is not the perfect way to retire, but for these two huge winners, it's good enough.

Check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Spurs


Houston Rockets

Will and should Dwight Howard return?

Tom Haberstroh: I don't see that happening, which seemed like an impossibility when he joined in 2013. I suspect Howard will end up in Dallas, where he can team up with Dirk Nowitzki, be pampered by Mark Cuban and take part in the fountain of youth there. After he ranked ninth on the roster in usage rate, and with Mike D'Antoni now the coach, my guess is Howard feels that the Houston thing has run its course.

Check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Rockets


Miami Heat

What should the Heat do about Hassan Whiteside, Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng?

Kevin Pelton: Swallow hard and re-sign Whiteside at the max. I understand the arguments for letting Whiteside go, given the questions about his fit with Miami's culture and his inconsistency. Nonetheless, it's going to be difficult to find another player with his talent, and we've seen Whiteside's importance to the Heat since he went out of the lineup with a sprained MCL in Game 3 against Toronto.

Amin Elhassan: Ideally, Wade is a Heat lifer. I say ideally because ideally, you don't have to pay him $20 million (or more) to keep him. I know this isn't a popular pitch come free agency, particularly given Wade's past sacrifices, but he has really reached the Dirk/Duncan phase of his career, in which massive financial givebacks on his part can result in lucrative free-agency flexibility.

Tom Haberstroh: I'd thank Deng for his services, renounce his rights and hand the keys to Justise Winslow, who will make $2.6 million on one of the best contracts in the league. Deng at the 4 has been everything the Heat wanted and more, but they need the cap space.

Check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Heat


Atlanta Hawks

Fact or fiction: Atlanta should offer Al Horford a max contract.

Jeremias Engelmann: Fact, but I'd try to make it a four-year deal. Although Horford doesn't strike me as a player likely to fall off a cliff due to age, you probably don't want to be paying him max money at the age of 34. For the next couple seasons, though, he will probably be worth a max contract; he ranks 24th in Real Plus-Minus (RPM).

Check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Hawks


Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis general manager Chris Wallace was quoted as predicting, "We are going to re-sign Mike Conley." How confident should he be?

Amin Elhassan: 50 percent. If I'm Mike Conley, I'm weighing the comfort and familiarity of the Grizzlies versus how much longer I think success can occur with this aging roster. With a plethora of options available (teams such as Atlanta and Utah come to mind), Conley's services will be highly sought-after. Re-signing long-term might not be in his best interest. If you're Memphis, though, without a doubt, Conley must be retained -- no matter the cost.

Check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Grizzlies


Dallas Mavericks

What should the Dirk plan be?

David Thorpe: I can see a Duncan-like next year or two, with him playing less but still being hugely valuable. Getting a dynamic center will help him so much on both ends. Same goes for an upgrade at point guard. A better lead guard will help control the "Flow" offense and figure out ways to take advantage of Dirk as he winds down his career. If Coach Thibs isn't a Ricky Rubio fan, I could see Dallas making a play for him.

Check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Mavericks


Boston Celtics

Which potential free agents should Boston keep?

Tom Haberstroh: Amir Johnson and Tyler Zeller are my favorite pieces of the bunch, and neither priced himself out with an exceptional season. I'm still puzzled as to why Zeller wasn't a bigger part of the Celtics' plans this season. Johnson gives the team the biggest defensive punch, as he is the only rim protector on the roster.

Check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Celtics


Charlotte Hornets

How should Charlotte prioritize its free agents?

Amin ​Elhassan: Nic Batum, Courtney Lee, Marvin Williams, Jeremy Lin, Al Jefferson -- in that order. With his versatility, Batum has allowed the Hornets to play the way they want. Lee is in the demo that everyone wants nowadays: 3-and-D player with the added benefit of being able to create a bit off the dribble. Williams is something of a poor man's combo of Batum and Lee.

Lin is a nice counterbalance to Kemba Walker, and the fact that he can either play alongside Walker or come off the bench without any hit to his ego is more crucial than one might assume. Jefferson has value as a post scorer, but the cost to retain him compared to the amount he'll be needed makes bringing him back anything but a foregone conclusion.

Check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Hornets


Los Angeles Clippers

Austin Rivers has a player option. If he becomes a free agent, what will and should the Clippers do?

Kevin Pelton: They should be excited that he opted out of the deal. Despite the good moments Rivers had this season, he still rated below replacement level and is unlikely to improve much more after four NBA seasons.

Check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Clippers


Toronto Raptors

Should the Raptors max out DeMar DeRozan?

Tom Haberstroh: If I'm Masai Ujiri, I'd offer him the max to save face, but I wouldn't shed tears if he left. The Raptors were far better with Kyle Lowry and Cory Joseph on the floor this season than they were with Lowry and DeRozan. That doesn't necessarily mean the team is better off with him gone, but DeRozan's struggle to get to the line -- zero free throws in three playoff games after no such games in the regular season -- is concerning.

Check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Raptors