The Dallas Mavericks exceeded expectations but find themselves a long way from the top of the West.
What do they need to return to elite status? Which free agents should they chase? What's the plan for Dirk?
Our 5-on-5 crew breaks down the future for the Mavs.
1. What direction do you foresee and advise for the Mavericks this offseason?
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Run it back with Dirk Nowitzki and try to make the playoffs again. This isn't a "Weekend At Bernie's" situation, like in LakerLand, where they trotted out Kobe Bryant for revenue purposes with no intentions of winning. Nowitzki was a borderline top-25 player this season, and the Mavs have to capitalize on that.
Tim MacMahon, ESPN.com: Pay what it takes to keep Chandler Parsons and get him out on the recruiting trail in June. Who should be his prime target? That's not nearly as clear cut as last summer, when Parsons wined and dined DeAndre Jordan for weeks.
According to sources, the Mavs have no intention to be in the Dwight Howard market if it's in the max neighborhood, but all plans are flexible.
There is one school of thought that the Mavs should target a wing, such as Nicolas Batum or Harrison Barnes, and play Parsons primarily at power forward with Dirk Nowitzki either sliding to center or entering his 19th season as the Sixth Man of the Year front-runner.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: With Nowitzki proclaiming that he'll play at least one more season, the Mavs probably will, and should, try to fill the roster with decent veterans, once again, in another attempt at making the playoffs. Starting a full rebuild makes little sense as long as Nowitzki is still on the roster and is playing good basketball.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: As usual, they'll bid on some of the top-tier free agents, such as Mike Conley, Kevin Durant and Al Horford. More realistically, the Mavericks might have a shot at the next tier of max players, including Nicolas Batum and Hassan Whiteside, while also seeking to re-sign Chandler Parsons, who also belongs in that tier. Failing that, I'd advise them to bring back some of their own free agents on short-term deals to build some sorely needed continuity.
David Thorpe, ESPN Insider: With an elite head coach and an overall organizational structure that is first rate, it's always fair to consider the Mavs a team that is just a player or two away from contending. They almost got a big piece in DeAndre Jordan last year, and I'd expect a great effort to find someone of similar value this July.
And as we have seen time and again from Rick Carlisle, he can take a guy whose value has dropped and help him reach another level of production. No reason to expect that to change.
I've always believed this is the perfect spot for DeMarcus Cousins, who needs an elite coach to believe in, a city big enough to not place DC as its local hero and a veteran that can put him in his place. Dallas checks all three boxes with ease.
2. Where do Justin Anderson and Salah Mejri fit into the picture?
Haberstroh: Even though they're both rookies, I don't put them in the same bucket. Justin Anderson is a legitimate prospect who can one day fill the Jae Crowder role as a wing 3-and-D guy. But Mejri, at 29, is a little like Hassan Whiteside, where he's a lot older than people think. They're nice pieces but not tent poles to build around.
MacMahon: They will be valuable role players in their second season, at the least. There is no bigger Mejri fan than Mark Cuban -- "The Tunisian Tower is a keeper," Cuban said on Monday -- and the owner believes the 7-foot-2 shot-blocker has starter potential.
Anderson, by far the Mavs' best first-round pick in a decade, projects to be a bouncier version of Jae Crowder. He'll be a starter at some point, if not next season.
Engelmann: Both were above average among rookies. Mejri, though, is already 29 years old, so there's not a lot of room for improvement, and I don't see much potential for a role other than as backup center. If Anderson can raise his 3-point percentage (26 percent during the regular season), he can be a solid starter or role player in the league.
Pelton: Dallas should pencil both players into next year's rotation. How much Anderson plays will surely depend on the results of free agency, but one way or another, his athleticism and size should put him in the mix on the wing. And Mejri has shown enough as a finisher and interior defender to suggest he can be part of the answer at center, though more likely as a reserve than a starter.
Thorpe: They are perfect right where they are, along with Dwight Powell. The best mix is one where young and old combine with prime-aged stars, allowing for current success while the future remains secure (think the Spurs and Kawhi Leonard). I like all three guys, and as the team evolves way from Dirk, their responsibilities will only increase.
3. What should the Dirk plan be?
Haberstroh: I touched on it up above, but this is where a sport science department can be as valuable as a star player. The Mavs have done a phenomenal job of extending Nowitzki's elite play, where other big men might have broken down. The guy is turning 38 this summer and he just posted a higher RPM than Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis and LaMarcus Aldridge. He's basically five years younger than his chronological age. Keep building around him.
MacMahon: I'd bring the big German off the bench. It's an absolute must to get his minutes down significantly. You can't ask a 38-year-old to play 32 minutes a night.
He indicated that he'd be willing to transition to a sixth man role last summer if the Mavs signed LaMarcus Aldridge. Would he be willing to make that move so Parsons could start at power forward? It's the best bet to keep Nowitzki performing with such efficiency during the twilight of his tremendous career.
Engelmann: I think it makes sense for him to play another season, but he might want to call it a career before 2017-18 if the Mavs can't significantly improve the roster. That gives him about a year to share the secrets of his patented one-legged fadeaway with Dallas' bigs.
Pelton: I don't think it's realistic for the Mavericks to get a power forward good enough to move Nowitzki to the reserve role often mooted for him. Given that, Dallas should continue to try to ease the burden on him by finding offensive players who can create shots using the space he provides and a capable interior defender to help Nowitzki on the glass.
Thorpe: I can see a Duncan-like next year or two, playing less but still being hugely valuable. Getting a dynamic center will help him so much, on both ends. Ditto an upgrade at point guard: A better lead guard will help control their "Flow" offense better and figure out ways to take advantage of Dirk as he winds down his career. If Coach Thibs isn't a Ricky Rubio fan, I can see Dallas making a play for him.
4. Which of these is the most true?
(A) Mark Cuban is an example of how the owner can drive success.
(B) Dallas is a unique situation, not to be imitated.
(C) The Mavs' success has been mostly about Dirk.
Haberstroh: C and then A. Like Popovich in San Antonio with Tim Duncan, Cuban would be the first to admit that having an all-time player is paramount. Nowitzki is the biggest reason there's a championship banner hanging in American Airlines Center. But Cuban might be the biggest reason why they've not had a losing season since 1999-2000.
MacMahon: C. Don't take my word for it. Listen to Cuban, who touched on the topic during his explanation of why he doesn't consider Russell Westbrook a superstar. "Dirk for 15 years won 50 games, no matter what," Cuban said. "We put Moe, Larry and Curly next to him and we won 50 games."
OK, so it was only 11 straight 50-win seasons, a longer streak than every team in NBA history except for Tim Duncan's Spurs and Magic Johnson's Lakers. But there is no doubt that Dirk has been the driving force for Dallas' success over the past decade and a half.
Engelmann: C. Nowitzki is one of the most underrated players of this generation. Even when his box score numbers don't seem like those of a superstar, he's beloved by plus-minus metrics. By one such measure (regularized adjusted plus-minus), he has performed at a higher level for his career than Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal.
Pelton: B/C/A, in that order. Cuban has shown unique basketball management skills for an owner, in no small part because he's been able to devote much of his attention to the Mavericks. So while he is an example, he's probably the only example of his sort. Nowitzki is certainly a driving force in Dallas' success, but Cuban has also hired one of the league's top coaches and put capable talent around Nowitzki in his prime.
Thorpe: Definitely A, in that Cuban has empowered his people relentlessly to find ways to move the team forward. The Mavs are a team to be imitated, from how they decided to hire Carlisle to finding ways to be relevant every year. Dirk is, of course, a huge part of their success, but I'd argue that Dirk in New York right now and 'Melo in Dallas would not change the fortunes of either team.
5. If the Mavs were a stock and you were looking five years ahead, would you buy, sell or hold?
Haberstroh: Buy. Cuban is one of the most forward-thinking minds in the NBA, if not the most progressive. Though he and his team have struck out finding Nowitzki's No. 2 over the past few years, Carlisle and Cuban have turned a bunch of spare parts into a playoff-making machine. They're constantly overachieving. And for that reason, I'm not out [Cuban "Shark Tank" voice].
MacMahon: Sell. The end of the Dirk era is near. The Mavs have been on the mediocrity treadmill with him since their championship run. They're trying to avoid taking on a full-fledged rebuilding project, but that's tough to do without any All-Star talent.
Engelmann: Hold. The Mavs' roster isn't exactly crowded with young, exceptional talent, and they don't even have their own first-round pick this year. Once Nowitzki leaves, they'll probably bottom out for a season or two, and it'll them take a while to get back into the playoffs.
Pelton: Sell. Barring a huge strike in free agency, the Mavericks don't have enough cost-controlled young talent to surround with the kind of second-tier free agents they're likely to land and build a real contender in the West. At some point, a rebuilding process of sorts is all but inevitable to add more promising youth.
Thorpe: Buy, because they will find ways to churn a "profit." Other teams will probably have a bigger impact on the title chase. But they will be interesting every season, and in that aggressive pursuit of improvement, they will win enough. Microsoft isn't the world's most valuable company anymore, but they are still worth hundreds of billions of dollars for a reason.