The Toronto Raptors reached their first Eastern Conference finals.
Should Toronto max out DeMar DeRozan and keep its core together? Or do they need big moves to get to the next level?
Our NBA Insiders go 5-on-5 on the future of the Raptors.
1. What do you foresee and advise for the Raptors this offseason?
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Weeks of introspection, but ultimately, I expect a different-looking team with Bismack Biyombo pricing himself out. I feel bad for Toronto GM Masai Ujiri because his team overachieved so much all season that it became a whole lot more expensive to retain.
Amin Elhassan: ESPN Insider: Don't mess with a good thing. Don't overreact. Keep the band together, try again to acquire help at the 4 spot via trade and use your exceptions wisely.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN.com: I foresee that DeRozan will be re-signed, even if it isn't what I would advise (see below). Packaging their two first-rounders (No. 9, by way of the Knicks, and No. 27) in a trade probably makes sense, especially considering the Raptors' ho-hum draft record and a win-now approach.
I would try to resign Biyombo, but with his outstanding playoff performance and the challenges of making it work under the cap, that is easier said than done.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: After five straight seasons of improvement, the Raptors are at the final and most difficult stage of building a title contender.
There is an obvious positional hole at power forward. The catch-22 is that keeping the rest of the puzzle intact (by beating the market on DeMar DeRozan) means burning your flexibility. You have to do it anyway, and then try to use your developmental pieces and draft stock to upgrade at 4.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: As frustrating as the postseason was at times, I don't think the time is right for the Raptors to make drastic changes. Nor do I expect them, assuming DeMar DeRozan returns ... at least not yet.
I'd like to see what this team looks like with Jonas Valanciunas playing a larger role on offense before doing anything significant. One wild card: Toronto still holds the rights to Euroleague MVP Nando De Colo, a restricted free agent, and while the Raptors are already deep in the backcourt he could help them or another team.
2. Should the Raptors max out DeMar DeRozan, a likely free agent?
Elhassan: Yes, for two reasons. 1. Because he wants to be there, and that's crucial to building any sort of sustainable culture of success. 2. Because regardless of how you feel about his current market value, in a year the inevitable cap inflation will correct for it and he'll increase in value by default.
Pelton: Yes. I'm admittedly not the world's biggest fan of DeRozan's game. The question is, what's the alternative? The Raptors would have to let all their free agents walk to have enough cap space to sign a replacement, and even then they'd be shopping from the second tier with sub-max money.
Re-signing DeRozan and looking for a trade is the best strategy if Toronto does want to break up its backcourt.
Doolittle: In a vacuum, I don't think he's worth it, but despite his shortcomings, as shown by advanced stats, DeRozan is still a guy in his prime who played 2,804 minutes on a 56-win team. You can't lose a player of that caliber just for some cap space that you're not likely to fill with a better free agent.
Engelmann: Given that DeRozan's Real Plus-Minus this season was 0.1, which is barely above average, and the team played six points per 100 possessions better when he was sitting I'm going to answer this question with a loud "No!"
DeRozan is the new Rudy Gay -- his scoring average makes you think he impacts the game in a positive way, but he simply doesn't.
Haberstroh: If I'm Ujiri, I'd offer him the max to save face, but I wouldn't shed tears if he left. The Raptors were far better with Kyle Lowry and Cory Joseph on the floor this season than Lowry and DeRozan. That doesn't necessary mean they're better off with him gone, but DeRozan's struggle to get to the line -- zero free throws in three playoff games after no such games in the regular season -- is concerning.
3. From 0 to 10, to what degree should the Raptors make Jonas Valanciunas their new offensive cornerstone?
Pelton: Maybe a 3? Cornerstone is too strong. The Raptors' offense was terrific during the regular season, so I don't think they need to bump DeRozan and Lowry aside.
At the same time, promoting Valanciunas to a higher spot in the pecking order gives them more diversity and more options when their guards face tough defensive matchups. So he's part of a balanced offensive diet, but not yet the anchor of it.
Doolittle: 4. Unless you're talking about a Karl-Anthony Towns-style center who is as proficient on the perimeter as he is in the paint -- and is a great passer -- I don't think that you can build an offense inside-out like that any more.
Having a good offensive center is a great value-added feature, of course. It gives you a weapon when opponents go small. But the foundation has to be in the backcourt or in the form of a playmaking wing.
Engelmann: 5. Valanciunas has decent post moves and shoots an OK percentage from the field and the line, but his assist rate of just one per 36 minutes -- 19th worst in the league -- is a little worrisome. He's probably just not a good enough passer to run the offense through.
Haberstroh: 8. I don't think they'll have much of a choice. He just turned 24 and averaged 28.2 points and 21.4 rebounds per 100 possessions in the playoffs, according to Basketball Reference. That makes him the only player to average at least 25-and-20 per 100 other than 2000-01 David Robinson and 2008-09 Dwight Howard. Jonas may not be a Hall of Famer, but he's ready.
Elhassan: 0. Offensive cornerstone implies one of two things: Either you can score a large amount of points efficiently on a nightly basis, or by virtue of your extreme involvement offensively (read: touches), you make life incredibly easy for all your teammates.
Kevin Durant is an offensive cornerstone because he can give you 25 efficient points a night, every night. Marc Gasol is a cornerstone because of his passing and role as a conduit. Valanciunas is neither of those types. Should he have a bigger role? Absolutely, but not as a primary option.
4. What kind of trade would make the most sense for the Raptors?
Engelmann: A DeRozan sign-and-trade makes a ton of sense, provided he will cooperate. He doesn't really help the team win and will command lots of money, but he could still be appealing to the GMs who might overvalue his counting stats, especially his scoring. If Vlade Divac and the Kings don't have enough to trade for him, perhaps former Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo, now in Philadelphia, should get a call.
Elhassan: I don't think they've got enough in the cupboard to swing for a blockbuster deal, the Denver pick (via New York) notwithstanding. More likely is a minor deal to upgrade the 4-spot using the spare parts on their team and perhaps a first-round pick. Toronto needs to leverage its continuity in the East rather than shirk from it.
Doolittle: DeRozan's free agency has to be resolved before you can do much of anything. If he stays and signs quickly, Toronto can hunt for an impact frontcourt upgrade. They could trade Jonas Valanciunas, whose salary matches up with that of some potential targets. DeMarcus Cousins is a name that springs to mind if the Kings start looking to move him.
Pelton: While it wouldn't likely be consummated until next season, I like the idea I mentioned earlier of re-signing DeRozan with an eye toward trading him. Otherwise, I think I'd like to see where the Raptors' needs lie next season before looking to make a move.
Haberstroh: I don't know if there is one. I think they build around Lowry and Valanciunas, and try it again next season. They'll need Joseph's defense if they want to survive Biyombo's expected departure, and they need Lowry to initiate offense. Lowry-Joseph-Carroll-Patterson-Valanciunas is a core that can compete for top-four in the East.
5. Which of these is most true?
A. The Raptors will continue to rise in the East.
B. The Raptors have found their new level of success.
C. The Raptors should take a constructive step backward next season.
D. The Raptors have rockier times ahead.
Haberstroh: C. The Raptors played like a 53-win team (given their scoring margin), so a regression to the mean is probably expected anyway. And even with the loss of DeRozan or Biyombo (see my previous answer), this team can still win 50 games if it commits to Valanciunas on offense and relies on youth development. So even if the Raptors take a step back in the wins column, that might ultimately lead to something better.
Elhassan: B. Depending on roster tweaks, Toronto should be competing for a top-three seed for the coming future. Continuity is one of the most underrated elements in the NBA. They should stick to the formula that has been paying steady, if not monumental, returns.
Engelmann: E. None of the above, because the Raptors' future is uncertain. With a lottery pick in June and DeRozan likely becoming a free agent in July, the Raptors can go down many different paths. They can load up by dealing the picks, or take a (small) step back by losing DeRozan. We probably won't know which path they're taking until draft night or after.
Doolittle: B. The Raptors have reached a tier that makes sense in the context of their talent and the age of their core players. Moving up from that tier -- and avoiding a plateau -- will be a huge challenge for Ujiri, because doing so will require a bold and creative maneuver. There are worse positions an organization could be in.
Pelton: D. At some point, age is bound to catch up with Kyle Lowry, who is 30 and has dealt with nagging injuries the past couple of years. We've seen in the postseason how much different the Raptors look when Lowry doesn't play like the top-10 player he was this season. Other internal development is unlikely to offset a Lowry decline.